Climate Change in Southern and Eastern Africa During the Past Millennium and its Implications for Societal Development

Climatic records from equatorial eastern Africa and subtropical southern Africa have shown that both temperature and the amount of rainfall have varied over the past millennium. Moreover, the rainfall pattern in these regions varied inversely over long periods of time. Droughts started abruptly, were of multi-decadal to multi-centennial length and the changes in the hydrological budget were of large amplitude. Changing water resources in semi-arid regions clearly must have regional influences on both ecological and socio-economic processes. Through a detailed analysis of the historical and paleoclimatic evidence from southern and eastern Africa covering the past millennium it is shown that, depending on the vulnerability of a society, climatic variability can have an immense impact on societies, sometimes positive and sometimes disastrous. Therefore, the interconnected issue of world ecosystem and social resilience is the challenge for decision-makers if sustainable development is to be reached on global and local levels.     

Determination of polyfluoroalkyl compounds in water and suspended particulate matter in the river Elbe and North Sea, Germany

The distribution of polyfluoroalkyl compounds (PFCs) in the dissolved and particulate phase and their discharge from the river Elbe into the North Sea were studied. The PFCs quantified included C₄-C₈ perfluorinated sulfonates (PFSAs), 6:2 fluorotelomer sulfonate (6:2 FTS), C₆ and C₈ perfluorinated sulfinates (PFSiAs), C₄-C₁₂ perfluorinated carboxylic acids (PFCAs), perfluoro-3,7-dimethyl-octanoic acid (3,7m₂-PFOA), perfluorooctane sulfonamide (FOSA), and n-ethyl perfluroctane sulfonamidoethanol (EtFOSE). PFCs were mostly distributed in the dissolved phase, where perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) dominated with 2.9–12.5 ng/L. In the suspended particulate matter FOSA and perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) showed the highest concentrations (4.0 ng/L and 2.3 ng/L, respectively). The total flux of ΣPFCs from the river Elbe was estimated to be 802 kg/year for the dissolved phase and 152 kg/year for the particulate phase. This indicates that the river Elbe acts as a source of PFCs into the North Sea. However, the concentrations of perfluorobutane sulfonate (PFBS) and perfluorobutanoic acid (PFBA) in the North Sea were higher than that in the river Elbe, thus an alternative source must exist for these compounds.     

A Bayesian approach for understanding the role of ship speed in whale-ship encounters

Mandatory or voluntary reductions in ship speed are a common management strategy for reducing deleterious encounters between large ships and large whales. This has produced strong resistance from shipping and marine transportation entities, in part because very few studies have empirically demonstrated whether or to what degree ship speed influences ship-whale encounters. Here we present the results of four years of humpback whale sightings made by observers aboard cruise ships in Alaska, representing 380 cruises and 891 ship-whale encounters. Encounters occurred at distances from 21 m to 1000 m (x = 567 m) with 61 encounters (7%) occurring between 200 m and 100 m, and 19 encounters (2%) within 100 m. Encounters were spatially aggregated and highly variable across all ship speeds. Nevertheless a Bayesian change-point model found that the relationship between whale distance and ship speed changed at 11.8 knots (6.1 m/s) with whales encountering ships, on average, 114 m closer when ship speeds were above 11.8 knots. Binning encounter distances by 1-knot speed increments revealed a clear decrease in encounter distance with increasing ship speed over the range of 7-17 knots (3.6-8.7 m/s). Our results are the first to demonstrate that speed influences the encounter distance between large ships and large whales. Assuming that the closer ships come to whales the more likely they are to be struck, our results suggest that reduced ship speed may be an effective management action in reducing the probability of a collision.     

Determination of total chlorine and bromine in solid wastes by sintering and inductively coupled plasma-sector field mass spectrometry

A sample preparation method based on sintering, followed by analysis by inductively coupled plasma-sector field mass spectrometry (ICP-SFMS) for the simultaneous determination of chloride and bromide in diverse and mixed solid wastes, has been evaluated. Samples and reference materials of known composition were mixed with a sintering agent containing Na₂CO₃ and ZnO and placed in an oven at 560 °C for 1 h. After cooling, the residues were leached with water prior to a cation-exchange assisted clean-up. Alternatively, a simple microwave-assisted digestion using only nitric acid was applied for comparison. Thereafter the samples were prepared for quantitative analysis by ICP-SFMS. The sintering method was evaluated by analysis of certified reference materials (CRMs) and by comparison with US EPA Method 5050 and ion chromatography with good agreement. Median RSDs for the sintering method were determined to 10% for both chlorine and bromine, and median recovery to 96% and 97%, respectively. Limits of detection (LODs) were 200 mg/kg for chlorine and 20 mg/kg for bromine. It was concluded that the sintering method is suitable for chlorine and bromine determination in several matrices like sewage sludge, plastics, and edible waste, as well as for waste mixtures. The sintering method was also applied for determination of other elements present in anionic forms, such as sulfur, arsenic, selenium and iodine.     

Medical supplies management in the cholera epidemic in Somalia 1985

In March/April 1985 a cholera epidemic of explosive speed affected a population of 45,000 newly arrived refugees in the town of Hargeysa in the North-West region of Somalia. Seven hundred and sixty one people were killed by the disease within ten days. Great efforts were made on regional, national and international levels in order to reduce mortality and to control the spread of the disease, and large amounts of relief supplies were immediately flown into the country from various aid organizations and governments. This paper describes the supplies management during the operation, with an emphasis on the mobilization of supplies from abroad and from the capital into the emergency area. Recommendations are offered for the organization of medical supplies during cholera outbreaks. The author worked during the epidemic as co-ordinating secretary for relief supplies in Mogadishu.     

Larval dispersal of a deep-sea hydrothermal vent bivalve from the Galápagos Rift

The prodissoconch morphology of an unclassified mytilid from a hydrothermal vent on the Galápagos Rift indicates the presence of a planktotrophic larval stage with longrange dispersal capabilities. Recorded abyssal currents are probably sufficient to transport such larvae hundreds of kilometers. It is suggested that one or more aspects of the unusual biological or physico-chemical conditions (such as high microbial densities, elevated water temperatures, and hydrogen sulfide concentrations) encountered at vents, provide a stimulus to larval settlement. Such a behavioral response, perhaps coupled with a gregarious settling response, would provide a means of concentrating relatively sedentary organisms in and around these restricted, geographically isolated regions.     

Temporal pessimism and spatial optimism in environmental assessments: An 18-nation study

The personal assessments of the current and expected future state of the environment by 3232 community respondents in 18 nations were investigated at the local, national, and global spatial levels. These assessments were compared to a ranking of each country's environmental quality by an expert panel. Temporal pessimism (“things will get worse”) was found in the assessments at all three spatial levels. Spatial optimism bias (“things are better here than there”) was found in the assessments of current environmental conditions in 15 of 18 countries, but not in the assessments of the future. All countries except one exhibited temporal pessimism, but significant differences between them were common. Evaluations of current environmental conditions also differed by country. Citizens' assessments of current conditions, and the degree of comparative optimism, were strongly correlated with the expert panel's assessments of national environmental quality. Aside from the value of understanding global trends in environmental assessments, the results have important implications for environmental policy and risk management strategies.     

Strong Influence of Variable Treatment on the Performance of Numerically Defined Ecological Regions

Numerical clustering has frequently been used to define hierarchically organized ecological regionalizations, but there has been little robust evaluation of their performance (i.e., the degree to which regions discriminate areas with similar ecological character). In this study we investigated the effect of the weighting and treatment of input variables on the performance of regionalizations defined by agglomerative clustering across a range of hierarchical levels. For this purpose, we developed three ecological regionalizations of Switzerland of increasing complexity using agglomerative clustering. Environmental data for our analysis were drawn from a 400 m grid and consisted of estimates of 11 environmental variables for each grid cell describing climate, topography and lithology. Regionalization 1 was defined from the environmental variables which were given equal weights. We used the same variables in Regionalization 2 but weighted and transformed them on the basis of a dissimilarity model that was fitted to land cover composition data derived for a random sample of cells from interpretation of aerial photographs. Regionalization 3 was a further two-stage development of Regionalization 2 where specific classifications, also weighted and transformed using dissimilarity models, were applied to 25 small scale “sub-domains” defined by Regionalization 2. Performance was assessed in terms of the discrimination of land cover composition for an independent set of sites using classification strength (CS), which measured the similarity of land cover composition within classes and the dissimilarity between classes. Regionalization 2 performed significantly better than Regionalization 1, but the largest gains in performance, compared to Regionalization 1, occurred at coarse hierarchical levels (i.e., CS did not increase significantly beyond the 25-region level). Regionalization 3 performed better than Regionalization 2 beyond the 25-region level and CS values continued to increase to the 95-region level. The results show that the performance of regionalizations defined by agglomerative clustering are sensitive to variable weighting and transformation. We conclude that large gains in performance can be achieved by training classifications using dissimilarity models. However, these gains are restricted to a narrow range of hierarchical levels because agglomerative clustering is unable to represent the variation in importance of variables at different spatial scales. We suggest that further advances in the numerical definition of hierarchically organized ecological regionalizations will be possible with techniques developed in the field of statistical modeling of the distribution of community composition.     

发展一种估算石油工业温室气体排放的一致的方法

要获得有意义的温室气体清单,重要的是清单中包括的内容的方法论和定义应该是一致的.国际石油工业环境保护协会(IPIECA)、国际石油和天然气生产者协会(OGP)以及美国石油学会(API)已经制定了温室气体排放计算和报告的准则.国际石油工业环境保护协会(IPITCA)报告温室气体排放的石油工业指南的重点是放在石油工业温室气体排放的计算和报告上.为了提供排放估算一致的方法论,美国石油工业协会制定了石油和天然气工业温室气体排放估算方法论概要.从美国石油学会可以得到一个估算排放的工具--SANGEATM能源和排放估算系统.