Projected change in climate thresholds in the Northeastern U.S.: implications for crops, pests, livestock, and farmers

Most prior climate change assessments for U.S. agriculture have focused on major world food crops such as wheat and maize. While useful from a national and global perspective, these results are not particularly relevant to the Northeastern U.S. agriculture economy, which is dominated by dairy milk production, and high-value horticultural crops such as apples (Malus domestica), grapes (Vitis vinifera), sweet corn (Zea mays var. rugosa), cabbage (Brassica oleracea var. capitata), and maple syrup (sugar maple, Acer saccharum). We used statistically downscaled climate projections generated by the HadCM3 atmosphere–ocean general circulation model, run with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change future emissions scenarios A1fi (higher) and B1 (lower), to evaluate several climate thresholds of direct relevance to agriculture in the region. A longer (frost-free) growing season could create new opportunities for farmers with enough capital to take risks on new crops (assuming a market for new crops can be developed). However, our results indicate that many crops will have yield losses associated with increased frequency of high temperature stress, inadequate winter chill period for optimum fruiting in spring, increased pressure from marginally over-wintering and/or invasive weeds, insects, or disease, or other factors. Weeds are likely to benefit more than cash crops from increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide. Projections of thermal heat index values for dairy cows indicate a substantial potential negative impact on milk production. At the higher compared to lower emissions scenario, negative climate change effects will occur sooner, and impact a larger geographic area within the region. Farmer adaptations to climate change will not be cost- or risk-free, and the impact on individual farm families and rural communities will depend on commodity produced, available capital, and timely, accurate climate projections.     

Regional climate change projections for the Northeast USA

Climate projections at relevant temporal and spatial scales are essential to assess potential future climate change impacts on climatologically diverse regions such as the northeast United States. Here, we show how both statistical and dynamical downscaling methods applied to relatively coarse-scale atmosphere-ocean general circulation model output are able to improve simulation of spatial and temporal variability in temperature and precipitation across the region. We then develop high-resolution projections of future climate change across the northeast USA, using IPCC SRES emission scenarios combined with these downscaling methods. The projections show increases in temperature that are larger at higher latitudes and inland, as well as the potential for changing precipitation patterns, particularly along the coast. While the absolute magnitude of change expected over the coming century depends on the sensitivity of the climate system to human forcing, significantly higher increases in temperature and in winter precipitation are expected under a higher as compared to lower scenario of future emissions from human activities.     

Living with living systems: The co-evolution of values and valuation

This article explores features of the environmental valuation process through a co-evolutionary approach. Based on established works concerning complexity, living systems, and social, economic, evolutionary and hierarchy theories, it is argued that a special form of recursive co-evolution takes place between articulated values and methods of value articulation, within the environmental valuation system. It is proposed that this co-evolutionary approach provides new insights into (1) the process of environmental preference formation and (2) the phenomenon of value incommensurability. Finally, it is suggested that this approach also reveals that monetary unit-based environmental valuation methods are counter-productive to their own purpose of 'taking the economic worth of un-priced environmental goods and service into account.' This constitutes a new critique of monetary valuation, which is not addressed by a pragmatic defence of the practice. It is suggested that, in lieu of monetary valuation, taking the economic worth of these phenomena into account may be better served by focusing efforts on the design of new value articulation methods that are capable of expressing their priceless economic worth.     

Phosphorus characteristics of dairy feces affected by diets

Phosphorus (P) surplus on dairy farms, especially confined operations, contributes to P buildup in soils with increased potential for P loss to waters. One approach to reduce P surplus and improve water quality is to optimize P feeding and improve P balance on farms. Here we report how varying P concentrations in lactating cow diets affects the amount as well as the chemical forms and fraction distribution of P in fecal excretion, and the environmental implications of this effect. Analysis of fecal samples collected from three independent feeding trials indicates that increasing dietary P levels through the use of P minerals not only led to a higher concentration of acid digest total phosphorus (TP) in feces, but more importantly increased the amount and proportion of P that is water soluble and thus most susceptible to loss in the environment. For instance, with diets containing 3.4, 5.1, or 6.7 g P kg(-1) feed dry matter (DM), the water-soluble fraction of fecal P was 2.91, 7.13, and 10.46 g kg(-1) fecal DM, respectively, accounting for 56, 77, and 83% of acid digest TP. The other fecal P fractions (those soluble in dilute alkaline and acid extractants) remained small and were unaffected by dietary P concentration. Excess P in the P supplemented diets was excreted in feces as water-soluble forms. A simple measure of inorganic phosphorus (Pi) in a single water extract is highly responsive to changes in diet P concentrations and hence can be indicative of dietary P status. A fecal P indicator concept is proposed and discussed.     

CLIMATE SCIENCE AND DROUGHT PLANNING: THE ARIZONA EXPERIENCE1

ABSTRACT: In response to recent severe drought conditions throughout the state, Arizona recently developed its first drought plan. The Governor's Drought Task Force focused on limiting the economic and social impacts of future droughts through enhanced adaptation and mitigation efforts. The plan was designed to maximize the use of new, scientific breakthroughs in climate monitoring and prediction and in vulnerability assessment. The long term objective of the monitoring system is to allow for evaluation of conditions in multiple sectors and at multiple scales. Stakeholder engagement and decision support are key objectives in reducing Arizona's vulnerability in light of the potential for severe, sustained drought. The drivers of drought conditions in Arizona include the El Nino‐Southern Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation.     

“My garden is an expression of me”: Exploring householders' relationships with their gardens

Domestic gardens offer immense potential as sites for native biodiversity conservation. In urban areas they often comprise the largest land use, thus presenting an accessible and immediate way for urban dwellers to connect with nature and to support and enhance native biodiversity. This paper presents findings from a study of 55 domestic gardens undertaken in Dunedin, New Zealand, which explores householders' relationships with their gardens. The study data was derived from two interviews with householders, two photo exercises (approximately a year apart), together with a number of biological studies of the gardens. Gardens proved to be very important for our householders; for physical and mental health, as an expression of ownership and identity, as sites for social relationships, for connecting with nature and as site of domestic produce production. Householders' connections with nature were idiosyncratic, multifaceted and exhibited in ways that are more complex and varied than those usually considered by those working in the natural sciences and indeed biophilia supporters. We emphasize the importance of the people side of nature in seeking to build and support positive ecological change in the urban environment and the value of combining natural and social science approaches.