Recent developments in the application of risk analysis to waste technologies

The European waste sector is undergoing a period of unprecedented change driven by business consolidation, new legislation and heightened public and government scrutiny. One feature is the transition of the sector towards a process industry with increased pre-treatment of wastes prior to the disposal of residues and the co-location of technologies at single sites, often also for resource recovery and residuals management. Waste technologies such as in-vessel composting, the thermal treatment of clinical waste, the stabilisation of hazardous wastes, biomass gasification, sludge combustion and the use of wastes as fuel, present operators and regulators with new challenges as to their safe and environmentally responsible operation. A second feature of recent change is an increased regulatory emphasis on public and ecosystem health and the need for assessments of risk to and from waste installations. Public confidence in waste management, secured in part through enforcement of the planning and permitting regimes and sound operational performance, is central to establishing the infrastructure of new waste technologies. Well-informed risk management plays a critical role. We discuss recent developments in risk analysis within the sector and the future needs of risk analysis that are required to respond to the new waste and resource management agenda.     

Characterizing the child passenger safety workforce in Michigan: A statewide survey in 2015

Objective: In this study, we assessed the number of child passenger safety technicians (CPSTs) in Michigan over 4 years and characterized the CPST workforce in 2015 to identify factors associated with high productivity and longevity in the field.

Methods: We determined the number of CPSTs and those newly certified using lists from the Michigan Office of Highway Safety Planning (OHSP) from 2012 to 2015. We conducted a statewide survey of Michigan CPSTs in October 2015. Analyses were conducted in 2016. The survey assessed demographic characteristics, reasons to enter the field and maintain certification, and motivations to conduct seat checks. We used CPST-reported time devoted to seat checks and average number of seats checked per month to create a composite “activity level” variable. We examined activity levels across several characteristics.

Results: The number of CPSTs ranged from 941 to 980 over the study period, with approximately 200 new certifications annually. In 2015, surveys were started by 496 of 962 eligible CPSTs and 427 submitted complete responses. CPST-instructors had a higher response rate than CPSTs in general (89 vs. 49%, P < .0001). The majority of respondents were women (71%) and self-identified as white (88%). More than one third were 35–44 years old. Just 7% were comfortable checking seats using a language other than English. “Personal reasons” were most often cited motivation for becoming a CPST and maintaining certification. Natural fit/job enhancement were more common reasons to maintain certification than become a CPST. Time and distance had the greatest influence on seat check participation. Perceived need, appointments vs. drop-in, and employer factors were very influential for 10–15% of CPSTs. Few CPSTs considered free food and payments/giveaways very influential. About 40% of respondents were considered high-activity (>24 seats checked/year), one third medium-activity (5 to 24 seats checked/year), and one quarter low-activity (<5 seats checked/year). High-activity CPSTs most commonly reported both being paid and volunteering their time to check seats, worked with a Safe Kids coalition, worked in law enforcement or social services, and had recertified at least once. Motivation to participate in seat checks did not vary with activity level.

Conclusions: Understanding the demographic characteristics and motivations of CPSTs can help Michigan OHSP recruit and retain a workforce dedicated to increasing the safety of child passengers. Agencies hosting seat checks can use these results to align the strategies they employ to incentivize CPSTs to serve in their communities with the factors that have the greatest influence on CPST participation.     

Ultrastructure of the spermatozoa of Hymenosomatidae (Crustacea: Brachyura) and the relationships of the family

The spermatozoa of the genus Odiomaris Ng and Richer de Forges, 1996 (=Amarinus Lucas, 1980) have the components typical of eubrachyuran (Heterotremata + Thoracotremata) sperm, but differ significantly from all other investigated eubrachyurans in at least ten characteristics: (1) presence of an epiopercular dome; (2) separation of all but the central region of the operculum from the remainder of the acrosome by an infra-opercular rim; (3) the fact that the acrosome is smaller in volume than the nucleus; (4) the acrosome is strongly emergent from the nucleus, being surrounded only basally by nuclear material; (5) the cytoplasmic sheath, ending anteriorly with the nucleus, is also basal; (6) division of the acrosome contents into an inner and outer acrosome zone is scarcely apparent in longitudinal section as the inner zone is narrow and of doubtful homology; (7) the thin, putative inner acrosome zone is anteriorly almost septate owing to several longitudinal corrugations; (8) basally there is a unique “fringe zone”; (9) the acrosome, including the epinuclear dome, is longer than wide; (10) the unique helical and posterolateral disposition of the nuclear arms. From a purely spermatological viewpoint, Odiomaris (as exemplified by O. pilosus and O. estuarius), and provisionally the Hymenosomatidae, are thus excluded from the Thora- cotremata, in which they were formerly placed, nor are they readily placeable in the Heterotremata. Received: 30 December 1996 / Accepted: 4 February 1997     

Aspects of the biology of Derocheilocaris typica (Crustacea: Mystacocarida). II. Distribution

Mystacocarid crustaceans are characteristic members of the mesopsammon of many marine beaches. A detailed investigation of the distribution of Derocheilocaris typica Pennak and Zinn, 1943, shows that this species is most abundant on open ocean, high-energy beaches, with only scattered occurrence in estuarine beaches. A characteristic distribution pattern in beaches is shown, with maximum density occurring between mid and high-water levels. This pattern changes seasonally, with the position of maximum density moving deeper into the beach and more landward during winter months. Short-term changes in distribution also occur, resulting from tidal migrations and abnormal hydrodynamic patterns (i.e., storms). Longshore variability in abundance suggests the occurrence of clumps of crustaceans arranged much like beads on a string. Changes in abundance or segregation of sexes and stages seasonally are not found.     

Gonadal structure and population characteristics of the protogynous goby Coryphopterus glaucofraenum

Protogynous hermaphroditism has been reported in two gobiid species within the genus Coryphopterus, including C. nicholsi from the temperate northeastern Pacific and C. personatus from the Caribbean. In a third species from the Caribbean, C. glaucofraenum, experimental groups were established and gonad structure of experimental individuals (collected off the southwest coast of Puerto Rico between February 1985 and June 1987) was subsequently examined histologically to determine the sexual pattern. Protogyny was confirmed in C. glaucofraenum. Sex change was either initiated or completed, typically by the largest female, in all-female groups held for 10 to 40 d. Ovarian, transitional, and testis structure were similar to that of C. nicholsi and C. personatus. No preformed testicular tissue was evident in the ovary proper and ovarian features were not retained in the sex-changed testis beyond the newly transformed stage. Secretory accessory gonadal structures associated with the testis and which develop at the time of sex change arose from precursive tissue masses associated with the ventral portion of the ovarian wall in the region of the common genital sinus. The rapid development and onset of function in these structures, generally preceding that of the associated developing testis, suggest that they may play an important role in sex change events and in advertising new male status. Based on observed similarities of ovarian, transitional and secondary testis structure in three protogynous Coryphopterus species, including one species isolated since the last closing of the American landbridge, it is probable that protogyny is an ancestral condition in this genus.     

Litter and dead wood dynamics in ponderosa pine forests along a 160-year chronosequence.

Disturbances such as fire play a key role in controlling ecosystem structure. In fire-prone forests, organic detritus comprises a large pool of carbon and can control the frequency and intensity of fire. The ponderosa pine forests of the Colorado Front Range, USA, where fire has been suppressed for a century, provide an ideal system for studying the long-term dynamics of detrital pools. Our objectives were (1) to quantify the long-term temporal dynamics of detrital pools; and (2) to determine to what extent present stand structure, topography, and soils constrain these dynamics. We collected data on downed dead wood, litter, duff (partially decomposed litter on the forest floor), stand structure, topographic position, and soils for 31 sites along a 160-year chronosequence. We developed a compartment model and parameterized it to describe the temporal trends in the detrital pools. We then developed four sets of statistical models, quantifying the hypothesized relationship between pool size and (1) stand structure, (2) topography, (3) soils variables, and (4) time since fire. We contrasted how much support each hypothesis had in the data using Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC). Time since fire explained 39-80% of the variability in dead wood of different size classes. Pool size increased to a peak as material killed by the fire fell, then decomposed rapidly to a minimum (61-85 years after fire for the different pools). It then increased, presumably as new detritus was produced by the regenerating stand. Litter was most strongly related to canopy cover (r2 = 77%), suggesting that litter fall, rather than decomposition, controls its dynamics. The temporal dynamics of duff were the hardest to predict. Detrital pool sizes were more strongly related to time since fire than to environmental variables. Woody debris peak-to-minimum time was 46-67 years, overlapping the range of historical fire return intervals (1 to > 100 years). Fires may therefore have burned under a wide range of fuel conditions, supporting the hypothesis that this region's fire regime was mixed severity.     

RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN LAND USES AND RAINWATER QUALITY IN A SOUTHCENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA WATERSHED1

ABSTRACT: Spatial and temporal variability in rainfall concentrations of nutrients, major ions, and herbicides was monitored at 7 locations in or near the Conodoguinet Creek watershed in south-central Pennsylvania from 1991.1993. Results were used to (1) compare precipitation quality in forested, agricultural and urban areas, and (2) assess the practicality of using volunteer citizen monitoring in such a study. As indicated in previous studies, sulfate and nitrogen concentrations in precipitation were linked to sample pH. Concentrations of major ions in precipitation appeared to relate more to regional influences rather than local influences. However, concentrations of herbicides in precipitation may have been influenced by both regional and local use which caused compounds like atrazine, deethylatrazine, propazine, simazine, metolachior, alachlor, ametryn, and prometon to be present in detectable concentrations in rainfall. Seasonality was evident in nitrogen, sulfate, pH, and herbicide data and was suggested in calcium, iron, manganese, magnesium, orthophosphate, and chloride data. Agricultural weed control activities were probably responsible for the seasonal pattern in pesticide data which peaked in May and June. Tropical storm Danielle may have caused the apparent seasonal patterns for the other nine parameters. This storm did not follow the typical west to east movement pattern and consequently produced rainfall of relative high quality. A variety of quality assurance checks indicated that trained volunteer citizen monitors were successful participants in this intensive and extensive scientific study, collecting good quality samples in a timely manner. Without this kind of volunteer help, it is extremely difficult to complete studies that require sampling in response to natural events such as rainfall.     

Baselines for land-use change in the tropics: application to avoided deforestation projects

Although forest conservation activities, particularly in the tropics, offer significant potential for mitigating carbon (C) emissions, these types of activities have faced obstacles in the policy arena caused by the difficulty in determining key elements of the project cycle, particularly the baseline. A baseline for forest conservation has two main components: the projected land-use change and the corresponding carbon stocks in applicable pools in vegetation and soil, with land-use change being the most difficult to address analytically. In this paper we focus on developing and comparing three models, ranging from relatively simple extrapolations of past trends in land use based on simple drivers such as population growth to more complex extrapolations of past trends using spatially explicit models of land-use change driven by biophysical and socioeconomic factors. The three models used for making baseline projections of tropical deforestation at the regional scale are: the Forest Area Change (FAC) model, the Land Use and Carbon Sequestration (LUCS) model, and the Geographical Modeling (GEOMOD) model. The models were used to project deforestation in six tropical regions that featured different ecological and socioeconomic conditions, population dynamics, and uses of the land: (1) northern Belize; (2) Santa Cruz State, Bolivia; (3) Paraná State, Brazil; (4) Campeche, Mexico; (5) Chiapas, Mexico; and (6) Michoacán, Mexico. A comparison of all model outputs across all six regions shows that each model produced quite different deforestation baselines. In general, the simplest FAC model, applied at the national administrative-unit scale, projected the highest amount of forest loss (four out of six regions) and the LUCS model the least amount of loss (four out of five regions). Based on simulations of GEOMOD, we found that readily observable physical and biological factors as well as distance to areas of past disturbance were each about twice as important as either sociological/demographic or economic/infrastructure factors (less observable) in explaining empirical land-use patterns. We propose from the lessons learned, a methodology comprised of three main steps and six tasks can be used to begin developing credible baselines. We also propose that the baselines be projected over a 10-year period because, although projections beyond 10 years are feasible, they are likely to be unrealistic for policy purposes. In the first step, an historic land-use change and deforestation estimate is made by determining the analytic domain (size of the region relative to the size of proposed project), obtaining historic data, analyzing candidate baseline drivers, and identifying three to four major drivers. In the second step, a baseline of where deforestation is likely to occur–a potential land-use change (PLUC) map—is produced using a spatial model such as GEOMOD that uses the key drivers from step one. Then rates of deforestation are projected over a 10-year baseline period based on one of the three models. Using the PLUC maps, projected rates of deforestation, and carbon stock estimates, baseline projections are developed that can be used for project GHG accounting and crediting purposes: The final step proposes that, at agreed interval (e.g., about 10 years), the baseline assumptions about baseline drivers be re-assessed. This step reviews the viability of the 10-year baseline in light of changes in one or more key baseline drivers (e.g., new roads, new communities, new protected area, etc.). The potential land-use change map and estimates of rates of deforestation could be re-done at the agreed interval, allowing the deforestation rates and changes in spatial drivers to be incorporated into a defense of the existing baseline, or the derivation of a new baseline projection.