Tree and Shrub Expansion Over the Past 34 Years at the Tree-Line Near Abisko,Sweden

Shrubs and trees are expected to expand in the sub-Arctic due to global warming. Our study was conducted in Abisko, sub-arctic Sweden. We recorded the change in coverage of shrub and tree species over a 32– to 34-year period, in three 50 × 50 m plots; in the alpine-tree-line ecotone. The cover of shrubs and trees (<3.5 cm diameter at breast height) were estimated during 2009–2010 and compared with historical documentation from 1976 to 1977. Similarly, all tree stems (≥3.5 cm) were noted and positions determined. There has been a substantial increase of cover of shrubs and trees, particularly dwarf birch (Betula nana), and mountain birch (Betula pubescens ssp. czerepanovii), and an establishment of aspen (Populus tremula). The other species willows (Salix spp.), juniper (Juniperus communis), and rowan (Sorbus aucuparia) revealed inconsistent changes among the plots. Although this study was unable to identify the causes for the change in shrubs and small trees, they are consistent with anticipated changes due to climate change and reduced herbivory.     

Environmental conditions influence egg color of reed warblers <Emphasis Type="Italic">Acrocephalus scirpaceus</Emphasis> and their parasite,the common cuckoo <Emphasis Type="Italic">Cuculus canorus</Emphasis>

The outer layer of the eggshell in birds is in many cases covered by pigments that are assumed to be genetically determined traits with a negligible environmental component. To test the hypothesis that spring environmental conditions (i.e., temperature and rainfall) may affect bird egg pigmentation, we measured by spectrophotometry and photography egg coloration and spottiness on reed warbler (Acrocephalus scirpaceus L.) clutches parasitized by the common cuckoo (Cuculus canorus L.) collected over a period of 24 years and preserved in the Zoological Museum, Copenhagen, Denmark. In addition, we investigated whether spring environmental conditions may influence the coevolutionary relationship between the cuckoo and its host via changes in cuckoo–host egg matching. Generalized mixed models revealed that reed warbler eggs were more brilliant in those springs with a higher rainfall and tended to be bluer and greener in springs with a lower relative temperature. On the other hand, cuckoo eggs were bluer and greener in springs with a higher rainfall. Cuckoo–host egg matching in blue-greenness and spottiness was better in springs with a higher rainfall. These results provide support for the existence of an environmental component on bird egg coloration and suggest that environmental factors may potentially affect the outcome of important features of the arms race between cuckoos and reed warblers.     

Successful DNA-based prenatal exclusion of juvenile neuronal ceroid lipofuscinosis

A family with two siblings, 10 and 8 years old, both with clinical and ultrastructural evidence of juvenile neuronal ceroid lipofuscinosis is described. The family was found to be informative for the restriction fragment length polymorphisms (RFLPs) detected by the probes pCJ52–95Ml (locus D16S148) and pCJ52-94Tl (locus D16S159) flanking the juvenile neuronal ceroid lipofuscinosis locus, CLN3. The parents were both heterozygous using these probes, while their two children with juvenile neuronal ceroid lipofuscinosis were both homozygous. Chorionic villi analysis showed that the fetus was heterozygous and had inherited the one allele of the mother which was not found in the two siblings. This suggested that the fetus had derived one healthy allele from the mother, the risk for a double crossing-over being less than 1 per cent. Electron microscopy showed no fingerprint inclusions in chorionic villi. The child was investigated at 6 months of age and found to be healthy, as new fingerprint inclusions were found at electron microscopy and no vacuolated lymphocytes were found in the blood smear. Due to the risk of heterogeneity, both DNA-based analysis and electron microscopy on chorionic villi are recommended for prenatal examination for juvenile neuronal ceroid lipofuscinosis.     

Spatio-temporal log-Gaussian Cox processes for modelling wildfire occurrence: the case of Catalonia, 1994–2008

Wildfires have become one of the principal environmental problems in the Mediterranean basin. While fire plays an important role in most terrestrial plant ecosystems, the potential hazard that it represents for human lives and property has led to the application of fire exclusion policies that, in the long term, have caused severe damage, mainly due to the increase of fuel loadings in forested areas, in some forest systems. The lack of an easy solution to forest fire management highlights the importance of preventive tasks. The observed spatio-temporal pattern of wildfire occurrences may be idealized as a realization of some stochastic process. In particular, we may use a space–time point pattern approach for the analysis and inference process. We studied wildfires in Catalonia, a region in the north-east of the Iberian Peninsula, and we analyzed the spatio-temporal patterns produced by those wildfire incidences by considering the influence of covariates on trends in the intensity of wildfire locations. A total of 3,166 wildfires from 1994–2008 have been recorded. We specified spatio-temporal log-Gaussian Cox process models. Models were estimated using Bayesian inference for Gaussian Markov Random Field through the integrated nested Laplace approximation algorithm. The results of our analysis have provided statistical evidence that areas closer to humans have more human induced wildfires, areas farther have more naturally occurring wildfires. We believe the methods presented in this paper may contribute to the prevention and management of those wildfires which are not random in space or time.     

Health and population-dependent effects of ocean acidification on the marine isopod Idotea balthica

Three populations of the grazing isopod Idotea balthica were exposed to high CO₂ treatment for a period of 20 days to investigate the effect of ocean acidification (OA) on animal health and immunocompetence. The results of the populations from more saline habitats were comparable and showed a 60–80 % decrease in immune response as a result of the high CO₂ treatment. Analysis of protein carbonyls showed no treatment effect, indicating that short-term OA does not increase oxidative protein damage. Meanwhile, the third tested population from the lower saline Baltic Sea had higher background protein carbonyl levels. Ocean acidification in addition to this resulted in 100 % mortality. The results of this study show that OA reduced immunocompetence of this marine isopod. In addition, populations and individuals in poor health are potentially at greater risk to succumb under OA.     

Governing Quasi-Public Network Services for adaptation to climate change

Adaptation takes place in both private and public sectors, or as an interrelation between the two, and often under the realm of public regulation. Thispaper uses the Swedish and the Norwegian electricity grid sector, as providers of a vital public good under strict public regulation, to analyse reforms' effects on adaptive capacity in this area. The paper shows that transformational changes in both sectors during the 1990s shifted both the formal organisational structure (rules and regulations), as well as the organisational culture, in the direction of economic efficiency. These two dimensions individually reduced adaptive capacity to climate change, although differently in the two countries. However, the formal structure and organisational culture also yielded substantial influence on each other. This leads to the conclusion that when designing public regulations and implementing reforms, organisational culture must be considered in the design. Also the paper contests previous findings in the literature by showing that under given conditions there exist some substitution between the two dimensions in influencing adaptive capacity, implying that both dimensions should be included when analysing adaptation since analysing them in isolation is likely to lead to wrong conclusions.     

Development of a multi-factor model for predicting the effects of ambient ozone on the biomass of white clover

Results are presented from the UN/ECE ICP Vegetation (International Cooperative Programme on effects of air pollution on natural vegetation and crops) experiments in which ozone(O(3))-resistant (NC-R) and -sensitive (NC-S) clones of white clover (Trifolium repens cv. Regal) were exposed to ambient O(3) episodes at 14 sites in eight European countries in 1996, 1997 and 1998. The plants were grown according to a standard protocol, and the forage was harvested every 28 days for 4-5 months per year by excision 7 cm above the soil surface. Biomass ratio (NC-S/NC-R) was related to the climatic and pollutant conditions at each site using multiple linear regression (MLR) and artificial neural networks (ANNs). Twenty-one input parameters [e.g. AOT40, 7-h mean O(3) concentration, daylight vapour pressure deficit (VPD), daily maximum temperature] were considered individually and in combination with the aim of developing a model with high r(2) and simple structure that could be used to predict biomass change in white clover. MLR models were generally more complex, and performed less well for unseen data than non-linear ANN models. The ANN model with the best performance had five inputs with an r(2) value of 0.84 for the training data, and 0.71 for previously unseen data. Two inputs to the model described the O(3) conditions (AOT40 and 24-h mean for O(3)), two described temperature (daylight mean and 24-h mean temperature), and the fifth input appeared to be differentiating between semi-urban and rural sites (NO concentration at 17:00). Neither VPD nor harvest interval was an important component of the model. The model predicted that a 5% reduction in biomass ratio was associated with AOT40s in the range 0.9-1.7 ppm x h (microl l(-1) h) accumulated over 28 days, with plants being most sensitive in conditions of low NO(x), medium-range temperature, and high 24-h mean O(3) concentration.     

Greenlandic water and sanitation systems—identifying system constellation and challenges

A good water supply and wastewater management is essential for a local sustainable community development. This is emphasized in the new global goals of the UN Sustainable Development, where the sixth objective is to: “Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all” (United Nations 2015). This obviously raises the question of how this can be achieved considering the very different conditions and cultures around the globe. This article presents the Greenlandic context and elucidates the current Greenland water supply system and wastewater management system from a socio-technical approach, focusing on the geographic, climatic and cultural challenges. The article identifies a diverse set of system constellations in different parts of Greenland and concludes with a discussion of health and quality of life implications.     

Concentrations of inorganic elements in 20 municipal waters in Sweden before and after treatment – links to human health

The water chemistry of 20 municipal water treatment plants in southern Sweden, representing various bedrock situations, and water qualities, were investigated. Four water samples, raw and treated, were collected from each plant and analyzed by predominantly ICP-OES and ICP-MS at four occasions from June to December, 2001. The concentrations of Ca, Mg, K, Na, HCO₃ and a number of micronutrients, varied considerably in treated waters from the studied plants (ranges; Ca: 9.1–53.7 mg L⁻¹, Mg: 1.4–10.9 mg L⁻¹, K: 1.1–4.8 mg L⁻¹, Na; 5.4–75.6 mg L⁻¹, HCO₃: 27–217 mg L⁻¹). The elimination of Fe and Mn from raw water was efficient in all treatments investigated, giving concentrations in treated waters below the detection limits at some plants. Softening filters gave waters with Ca-concentrations comparable to the softest waters in this study. Adjustment of pH by use of chemicals like lye, soda or lime, modified the consumer water composition significantly, besides raising the pH. It was estimated that drinking water contributed to approximately 2.2–13% of the daily Ca uptake, if the gastrointestinal uptake efficiency from food and water was estimated to be around 50%. The corresponding figures for Mg was 1.0–7% and for F 0–59%. None of the studied elements showed any significant time trends in raw or treated waters during the follow-up period. The concentrations of potentially toxic metals such as Al, Pb and U were low and did not indicate risks for adverse health effects (ranges; Al: 0.5–2.3 μg L⁻¹, Pb: 0–0.3 μg L⁻¹, U: 0.2.5 μg L⁻¹).     

Scope insensitivity in contingent valuation of complex environmental amenities

It has been argued that respondents in contingent valuation (CV) surveys, asked to value complex environmental amenities, will state willingness to pay (WTP) independently of the scope of the project. Such insensitivity to scope would be at odds with rational choice, and could therefore imply that CV is not a theoretically valid method for biodiversity valuation. The scope test in the present CV study was applied to endangered species preservation. Respondents were split in four sub-samples facing different scopes of endangered species preservation. The design allowed for both external and internal scope tests. Furthermore, the tests were split according to elicitation format. Of four external tests of insensitivity to scope, one was rejected, two gave mixed results, depending on either the type of test or elicitation format, and for the last one the null hypothesis could not be rejected. Of five internal tests, insensitivity to scope was rejected in three cases, one test gave mixed results, and one could not be rejected. Survey design features of the CV study, especially an unfamiliar sub-group of endangered species, could explain the apparent insensitivity to scope observed.