Assessment of risks for adaptation to climate change: the case of land-slides

This paper describes how relatively detailed knowledge about probabilities of natural hazards can be used to make decisions to develop areas and control the risk within hazard zones. The assessment serves two purposes. First, it shows how information can support decisions. Second, decision criteria put leads on what information is required. This is helpful to identify unavailable information. We show by an example from a land-slide prone area in Norway how a relatively reliable estimate of the probability of slides ends up in a rather uncertain estimate of the risk. Uncertainty about the risk represented by natural hazards imply great challenges to the development of adaptation policies to meet climate change, but they are required. We develop a simplified criterion for optimal adaptation, and estimate the added social value required to defend development in hazard prone areas instead of developing a risk-free alternative. The value is estimated between 0 and 0.40 Euros per Euro invested in the case area, depending on type of slide, category of asset and other costs that occur in the wake of slides.     

Prey, feeding rates, and asexual reproduction rates of the introduced oligohaline hydrozoan Moerisia lyonsi

Moerisia lyonsi Boulenger (Hydrozoa) medusae and benthic polyps were found at 0 to 5‰ salinity in the Choptank River subestuary of Chesapeake Bay, USA. This species was introduced to the bay at least 30 years before 1996. Medusae and polyps of M. lyonsi are very small and inconspicuous, and may occur widely, but unnoticed, in oligohaline waters of the Chesapeake Bay system and in other estuaries. Medusae consumed copepod nauplii and adults, but not barnacle nauplii, polychaete and ctenophore larvae or tintinnids, in laboratory experiments. Predation rates on copepods by medusae increased with increasing medusa diameter and prey densities. Feeding rates on copepod nauplii were higher than on adults and showed no saturation over the range of prey densities tested (1 to 64 prey l⁻¹). By contrast, predation on copepod adults was maximum (1 copepod medusa⁻¹ h⁻¹) at 32 and 64 copepods l⁻¹. Unexpectedly, M. lyonsi colonized mesocosms at the Horn Point Laboratory during the spring and summer in 4 years (1994 to 1997), and reached extremely high densities (up to 13.6 medusae l⁻¹). Densities of copepod adults and nauplii were low when medusa densities were high, and estimated predation effects suggested that M. lyonsi predation limited copepod populations in the mesocosms. Polyps of M. lyonsi asexually produced both polyp buds and medusae. Rates of asexual reproduction increased with increasing prey availability, from an average total during a 38 d experiment of 9.5 buds polyp⁻¹ when each polyp was fed 1 copepod d⁻¹, to an average total of 146.7 buds polyp⁻¹ when fed 8 copepods d⁻¹. The maximum daily production measured was 8 polyp buds and 22 medusae polyp⁻¹. The colonizing potential of this hydrozoan is great, given the high rates of asexual reproduction, fairly wide salinity tolerance, and existence of a cyst stage. Received: 29 October 1998 / Accepted: 3 March 1999     

Health and population-dependent effects of ocean acidification on the marine isopod Idotea balthica

Three populations of the grazing isopod Idotea balthica were exposed to high CO₂ treatment for a period of 20 days to investigate the effect of ocean acidification (OA) on animal health and immunocompetence. The results of the populations from more saline habitats were comparable and showed a 60–80 % decrease in immune response as a result of the high CO₂ treatment. Analysis of protein carbonyls showed no treatment effect, indicating that short-term OA does not increase oxidative protein damage. Meanwhile, the third tested population from the lower saline Baltic Sea had higher background protein carbonyl levels. Ocean acidification in addition to this resulted in 100 % mortality. The results of this study show that OA reduced immunocompetence of this marine isopod. In addition, populations and individuals in poor health are potentially at greater risk to succumb under OA.     

Spatio-temporal log-Gaussian Cox processes for modelling wildfire occurrence: the case of Catalonia, 1994–2008

Wildfires have become one of the principal environmental problems in the Mediterranean basin. While fire plays an important role in most terrestrial plant ecosystems, the potential hazard that it represents for human lives and property has led to the application of fire exclusion policies that, in the long term, have caused severe damage, mainly due to the increase of fuel loadings in forested areas, in some forest systems. The lack of an easy solution to forest fire management highlights the importance of preventive tasks. The observed spatio-temporal pattern of wildfire occurrences may be idealized as a realization of some stochastic process. In particular, we may use a space–time point pattern approach for the analysis and inference process. We studied wildfires in Catalonia, a region in the north-east of the Iberian Peninsula, and we analyzed the spatio-temporal patterns produced by those wildfire incidences by considering the influence of covariates on trends in the intensity of wildfire locations. A total of 3,166 wildfires from 1994–2008 have been recorded. We specified spatio-temporal log-Gaussian Cox process models. Models were estimated using Bayesian inference for Gaussian Markov Random Field through the integrated nested Laplace approximation algorithm. The results of our analysis have provided statistical evidence that areas closer to humans have more human induced wildfires, areas farther have more naturally occurring wildfires. We believe the methods presented in this paper may contribute to the prevention and management of those wildfires which are not random in space or time.     

Particulate and semivolatile associated aliphatic hydrocarbon exhaust emission from heavy duty diesel vehicles

The exhaust emissions from two heavy duty diesel vehicles running on eight different fuel compositions were investigated regarding their content of high molecular weight (≥ C₁₂) aliphatic/ olefinic hydrocarbons. It was concluded that the emitted amount of semi‐volatile associated aliphatic hydrocarbons (range C₁₂‐C₂₂) depend on the fuel used in the engines and that these emissions mainly consisted of uncombusted fuel components. It was also found that uncombusted engine lubrication oil was the main constituent of the emitted particulate associated aliphatic hydrocarbons (C₁₇‐C₄₀). These constituted between 58% and 95% of the total emissions of the high molecular weight aliphatic compounds. Emission factors for the total of high molecular aliphatic hydrocarbons (C₁₂‐C₄₀) were demonstrated to be in the range of 15–100 mg/km. Some individual aliphatic hydrocarbons with cocarcinogenic effects were identified and quantified in both particulate and semi‐volatile phases of the exhaust. Multivariate data analysis was used to investigate the relationship between fuel parameters and emission of semi‐volatile aliphatic emission.     

Exaggerated orientation scatter of nocturnal passerine migrants close to breeding grounds: comparisons between seasons and latitudes

Using tracking radars, we investigated the variability of flight directions of long-distance nocturnal passerine migrants across seasons (spring versus autumn migration) and sites at the southern (56° N) and northern (68° N) ends of the Scandinavian Peninsula (Lund versus Abisko). Whilst most migrants at Lund are on passage to and from breeding sites in Fennoscandia, the majority of the migrants at Abisko are close to their breeding sites, and migration at Abisko thus to a large degree reflects initial departure from breeding sites (autumn) or final approach to breeding destinations (spring). The radar data were used to test predictions about differences in orientation and wind drift effects between adult and juvenile birds (a large proportion of autumn migrants consists of juvenile birds on their first journey), between situations far away from or near the goals and between different phases of migration (initial departure, en route passage, final approach to goal). The concentrations (both total and within-night concentrations) of flight directions differed significantly between seasons as well as sites, with the highest concentration at Lund in spring (mean vector length of track directions, r = 0.79) and lowest at Abisko during spring (r = 0.35). Partial wind drift and partial compensation were recorded at Lund, with a similar effect size in spring and autumn, whilst possible wind drift effects at Abisko were obscured by the large directional scatter at this site. The results from Lund support the prediction that the high proportion of juveniles in autumn contributes to increase the directional scatter during this season, whilst there was no support for predictions of differential wind drift effects between seasons and situations with different goal distances. The most striking and surprising result was the exceedingly large scatter of flight directions at Abisko, particularly in spring. We suggest that such an exaggerated scatter may be associated with final approach orientation, where migrants reach their specific goals from all various directions by final navigation within a more wide-ranging goal region. The larger scatter of autumn flight directions at Abisko compared to Lund may be due to exploratory flights in variable directions being more common at initial departure from breeding sites than later during migratory passage. These surprising results highlight the importance of studying and analysing orientation during final approach to (and initial departure from) migratory goals for understanding the orientation systems of migratory birds.     

Effectiveness of a Light-Weight Ice-Vest for Body Cooling While Wearing Fire Fighter’s Protective Clothing in the Heat

The aim of the study was to examine the effects of wearing an ice-vest (ca 1 kg) on physiological and subjective responses in fire fighters. The experiments were carried out on a treadmill in a hot-dry environment. The physical cooling effect of the ice-vest was measured with a thermal manikin. The ice-vest effectively reduced skin temperatures under the vest. On average, heart rate was 10 beats/min lower, the amount of sweating was reduced by 13%, and subjective sensations of effort and warmth were lower during work with the ice-vest compared to work without it. Thermal manikin tests indicated that the useful energy available from the vest for body cooling was rather high (58%). In conclusion, the ice-vest reduces physiological and subjective strain responses during heavy work in the heat, and may promote efficient work time by 10%.