Forests and global change: what can genetics contribute to the major forest management and policy challenges of the twenty-first century?

The conservation and sustainable use of forests in the twenty-first century pose huge challenges for forest management and policy. Society demands that forests provide a wide range of ecosystem services, from timber products, raw materials and renewable energy to sociocultural amenities and habitats for nature conservation. Innovative management and policy approaches need to be developed to meet these often-conflicting demands in a context of environmental change of uncertain magnitude and scale. Genetic diversity is a key component of resilience and adaptability. Overall, forest tree populations are genetically very diverse, conferring them an enormous potential for genetic adaptation via the processes of gene flow and natural selection. Here, we review the main challenges facing our forests in the coming century and focus on how recent progress in genetics can contribute to the development of appropriate practical actions that forest managers and policy makers can adopt to promote forest resilience to climate change. Emerging knowledge will inform and clarify current controversies relating to the choice of appropriate genetic resources for planting, the effect of silvicultural systems and stand tending on adaptive potential and the best ways to harness genetic diversity in breeding and conservation programs. Gaps in our knowledge remain, and we identify where additional information is needed (e.g., the adaptive value of peripheral populations or the genetic determinism of key adaptive traits) and the types of studies that are required to provide this key understanding.     

Quantification of the resource recovery potential of municipal solid waste incineration bottom ashes

Municipal solid waste incineration (MSWI) plays an important role in many European waste management systems. However, increasing focus on resource criticality has raised concern regarding the possible loss of critical resources through MSWI. The primary form of solid output from waste incinerators is bottom ashes (BAs), which also have important resource potential. Based on a full-scale Danish recovery facility, detailed material and substance flow analyses (MFA and SFA) were carried out, in order to characterise the resource recovery potential of Danish BA: (i) based on historical and experimental data, all individual flows (representing different grain size fractions) within the recovery facility were quantified, (ii) the resource potential of ferrous (Fe) and non-ferrous (NFe) metals as well as rare earth elements (REE) was determined, (iii) recovery efficiencies were quantified for scrap metal and (iv) resource potential variability and recovery efficiencies were quantified based on a range of ashes from different incinerators. Recovery efficiencies for Fe and NFe reached 85% and 61%, respectively, with the resource potential of metals in BA before recovery being 7.2%ww for Fe and 2.2%ww for NFe. Considerable non-recovered resource potential was found in fine fraction (below 2 mm), where approximately 12% of the total NFe potential in the BA were left. REEs were detected in the ashes, but the levels were two or three orders of magnitude lower than typical ore concentrations. The lack of REE enrichment in BAs indicated that the post-incineration recovery of these resources may not be a likely option with current technology. Based on these results, it is recommended to focus on limiting REE-containing products in waste for incineration and improving pre-incineration sorting initiatives for these elements.     

Modelling of occupational respirable crystalline silica exposure for quantitative exposure assessment in community-based case-control studies

We describe an empirical model for exposure to respirable crystalline silica (RCS) to create a quantitative job-exposure matrix (JEM) for community-based studies. Personal measurements of exposure to RCS from Europe and Canada were obtained for exposure modelling. A mixed-effects model was elaborated, with region/country and job titles as random effect terms. The fixed effect terms included year of measurement, measurement strategy (representative or worst-case), sampling duration (minutes) and a priori exposure intensity rating for each job from an independently developed JEM (none, low, high). 23,640 personal RCS exposure measurements, covering a time period from 1976 to 2009, were available for modelling. The model indicated an overall downward time trend in RCS exposure levels of -6% per year. Exposure levels were higher in the UK and Canada, and lower in Northern Europe and Germany. Worst-case sampling was associated with higher reported exposure levels and an increase in sampling duration was associated with lower reported exposure levels. Highest predicted RCS exposure levels in the reference year (1998) were for chimney bricklayers (geometric mean 0.11 mg m(-3)), monument carvers and other stone cutters and carvers (0.10 mg m(-3)). The resulting model enables us to predict time-, job-, and region/country-specific exposure levels of RCS. These predictions will be used in the SYNERGY study, an ongoing pooled multinational community-based case-control study on lung cancer.     

Games Real Farmers Play: Knowledge,memory and the fate of collective action to prevent eutrophication of water catchments

This paper analyses the outcome of an actor game aimed at finding ways to institutionalise farmer co-operation in a water catchment threatened by eutrophication from heavy use of fertilisers. Although offered several advantageous options for collective action, acting farmers stuck to their preference for individual management in spite of very draconian measures from central authorities. Theories on collective action developed by Mancur Olson and Elinor Ostrom cover some ground in explaining this puzzling outcome, as do Fritz Scharpf's models of games played out under the 'shadow of hierarchy'. However, the most decisive factor for the farmers' choice of strategy seems to stand Mancur Olson's theory on its head, and adds to the importance of trust and reciprocity emphasised by Elinor Ostrom. Because the farmers knew each other well, and because of the transparency of farmers' action in the geographically limited catchment, they turned down options of co-operation; too few farmers were considered trustworthy enough to make it worthwhile to engage in collective action. Theories of 'collective memories of the history of play' in an area or on an issue should thus be given more concern in future efforts to bring about collective action towards common pool resources. Este documento analiza el resultado de juego de actor dirigido a encontrar formas de institucionalizar la cooperación entre agricultores en la captación de agua amenazada por eutroficación de fuerte uso de fertilizantes. Aunque ofrecieron varias opciones ventajosas para la acción colectiva, los agricultores participantes se quedan apegados a sus preferencias de manejo individual a pesar de las medidas bastante draconianas de las autoridades centrales. Las teorias de acción colectiva desarrolladas por Mancur Olson y Elinor Ostrom cubren algún terreno en explicar este curioso resultado, al igual que los modelos de juego de Fritz Scharpf jugados bajo la "sombra de jerarquia". Sin embargo, el factor mas decisivo para la estrategia de decisión de los agricultores parece poner la teoria de Mancur Olson de revéz y se suma a la importancia de la confianza y reciprocidad enfatizada por Elinor Ostrom. Debido a que los agricultores se conocian bien y a la transparencia de la accion de agricultores en la captacion limitada geograficamente, ellos rechazaron opciones de cooperación; muy pocos agricultores fueron considerados de suficiente confianza para que merecieran participar en acción colectiva. Las teorias de "memorias colectivas de la historia del juego" en una área o sobre un asunto deben de esta manera estar mostrando mayor interes en esfuerzos futuros para atraer la acción colectiva hacia recursos de fondo común.     

The performance of a natural treatment system for landfill leachate with special emphasis on the fate of organic pollutants.

A natural treatment system for the treatment of leachate was studied at Moskogen landfill in southern Sweden. This facility consists of three consecutive ponds and a soil-plant (SP)-system. A test area, receiving water from the third pond with the same hydraulic load as the SP-system, was used for estimation of the latter system. Quality parameters including biochemical oxygen demand, total organic carbon, ammonium, nitrate, orthophosphate, and total suspended solids along the treatment line were determined as well as soluble metals (Cu, Cd, Zn, Cr, Ni, and Pb). In addition a thorough investigation along the treatment line has also been performed concerning volatile organic compounds and semi-volatile organic compounds. Non-polar organic compounds were investigated using gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. Quantification was based on the assumption of equal response for the compounds found in comparison with the chosen marker substances. For polar, water-soluble compounds the measurements were restricted to phenolic compounds using high-performance liquid chromatography. Several different types of organic compounds were found in the raw leachate including aromatics, benzene-sulfonamides, biphenyls, naphthalene, organic phosphates, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, polychlorinated biphenyls, phenols and phthalates. The treatment system efficiently reduced organic pollutants, heavy metals, and nitrogen/phosphorous compounds. Most metals and organic compounds in the leachate were already significantly reduced to a low level in the treatment ponds and ammonium-N was efficiently transformed to nitrate-N in the SP-system.     

Emissions from baled municipal solid waste: I. Methodological approach for investigation of gaseous emissions.

This paper presents a methodological approach for the study of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in air, emitted during storage of municipal solid waste in bales. Determination of VOCs was based on sampling with adsorbent tubes followed by automated analysis using on-line work-up with a thermal desorption unit directly connected to a gas chromatograph-mass spectrometer. Using calculation algorithms and multidimensional statistical analysis of large amounts of data collected, the information was compressed and visualized. The approach was applied to initial measurements of emissions of VOCs from 24 bales composed of municipal solid waste, each bale stored in a wooden box. These bales were produced using the two types of baling equipment available, resulting in cylindrical or rectangular bales, with different densities. Hundreds of different VOCs emitted from these bales sorted out into groups with different chemical structure. Differences in VOC concentrations in air were found between wastes stored in cylindrical or rectangular bales. For instance, it was found that the concentration of VOCs (relative to the concentration of toluene), in the first experiment after storing, for cylindrical bales with six layers of LDPE was 115 +/- 10 microg m(-3), while for rectangular bales it was only 64 +/- 8 microg m(-3). The procedure used for data interpretation suggested different degradation mechanisms in different types of bales. The use of multiple data interfaces, multidimensional statistics and automated chemical analysis methods are likely to be more and more common for waste companies and waste research in the near future. This is due to the interdisciplinary nature of the subject that relies heavily on various areas of science and information technology.     

Energy flow model of an oxygen-deficient estuary on the Swedish west coast

The estuary Byfjord (Sweden) is characterized by high primary production, a well developed meiofauna compared to the macrofauna, high epifaunal biomass, a low number of herbivorous copepods and a small fish stock. A simplified energy flow model of the ecosystem of the fjord is given. The energy transfer is approximated to 15%. About one-fourth-300 (metric) tons of carbon — of the annual primary production is suggested to be directly consumed and to produce 5 tons of zooplankton carbon and 40 tons of epifaunal (mainly Mytilus edulis) carbon. About 500 tons of carbon from the detritus pool are probably utilized in animal production. This amount will produce 5 tons of zooplankton carbon, 6 tons of meiofaunal carbon, and 3 tons of carbon from the benthic macrofauna. Production of fish is estimated at 0.3 ton carbon per year. M. edulis seems to be the only food resource in the fjord worth harvesting by man.     

A one year study of the seasonal variations of sDDT and PCB levels in fish from heated and unheated areas near a nuclear power plant

An investigation of the influence of excess heat discharge from a nuclear power plant on the residual levels of the sDOT and PCB in roach and perch has been made during a period of one year. A seasonal variation of the residual concentrations was observed, with the highest levels during spring and early summer and lower more stable levels in the autumn. Significantly higher levels of the sDDT and PCB was observed in perch from the cooling water recipient as compared to values in perch from the intake area. No significant differences could however be verified for roach. The result stress the importance that, in a monitoring program, a sampling period with stable ecological conditions is selected.     

Evaluation of environmental monitoring strategies

In environmental monitoring, it is important that the monitoring system should emit early warnings when undesired events occur. These events may be sudden or of a more subtle nature. In the design of such monitoring systems, a proper balance between cost and risk must be achieved. There are 2 classic types of risk connected with early warning systems, namely the risk of not detecting significant changes and the risk of false alarms. The purpose of this paper is to describe a method for comparing the performance of different monitoring systems, considering the classic types of risk and cost. The method is applied to the monitoring of the lichen cover as a test case. The expected utility has been used as a measure of performance. When estimating the probabilities of the events, spatial microsimulation and Monte-Carlo simulation techniques have been used. The monitoring programs studied are based on satellite images, aerial photos, field samples, and land-cover maps. The major conclusions of this study are that standardized quality measures are extremely useful for evaluating the usability of environmental monitoring methods. In addition, when estimating gains and costs, spatial microsimulation techniques are useful. To improve the method, however, macroconstraints should also be used for aligning the simulation model.     

Economic valuation for sustainable development in the Swedish coastal zone

The Swedish coastal zone is a scene of conflicting interests about various goods and services provided by nature. Open-access conditions and the public nature of many services increase the difficulty in resolving these conflicts. "Sustainability" is a vague but widely accepted guideline for finding reasonable trade-offs between different interests. The UN view of sustainable development suggests that coastal zone management should aim at a sustainable ecological, economic, and social-cultural development. Looking closer at economic sustainability, it is observed that economic analyses about whether changes in society imply a gain or a loss should take into account the economic value of the environment. Methods used for making such economic valuation in the context of the Swedish coastal zone are briefly reviewed. It is noted that the property rights context matters for the results of a valuation study. This general background is followed by a concise presentation of the design and results of four valuation studies on Swedish coastal zone issues. One study is on the economic value of an improved bathing water quality in the Stockholm archipelago. The other studies are a travel cost study about the economic value of improved recreational fisheries in the Stockholm archipelago, a replacement cost study on the value of restoring habitats for sea trout, and a choice experiment study on the economic value of improved water quality along the Swedish westcoast.