Precursor-based hierarchical Bayesian approach for rare event frequency estimation: A case of oil spill accidents

Due to a scarcity of data, the estimate of the frequency of a rare event is a consistently challenging problem in probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). However, the use of precursor data has been shown to help in obtaining more accurate estimates. Moreover, the use of hyper-priors to represent prior parameters in the hierarchical Bayesian approach (HBA) generates more consistent results in comparison to the conventional Bayesian method. This study proposes a framework that uses a precursor-based HBA for rare event frequency estimation. The proposed method is demonstrated using the recent BP Deepwater Horizon accident in the Gulf of Mexico. The conventional Bayesian method is also applied to the same case study. The results show that the proposed approach is more effective with regards to the following perspectives: (a) using the HBA in the proposed framework provides an opportunity to take full advantage of the sparse data available and add information from indirect but relevant data; (b) the HBA is more sensitive to changes in precursor data than the conventional Bayesian method; and (c) using hyper-priors to represent prior parameters, the HBA is able to model the variability that can exist among different sources of data.     

Feeling interrupted—Being responsive: How online messages relate to affect at work

Being constantly connected to others via e‐mail and other online messages is increasingly typical for many employees. In this paper, we develop and test a model that specifies how interruptions by online messages relate to negative and positive affect. We hypothesize that perceived interruptions by online messages predict state negative affect via time pressure and that perceived interruptions predict state positive affect via responsiveness to these online messages and perceived task accomplishment. A daily survey study with 174 employees (a total of 811 day‐level observations) provided support for our hypotheses at the between‐person and within‐person level. In addition, perceived interruptions showed a negative direct association with perceived task accomplishment. Our study highlights the importance of being responsive to online messages and shows that addressing only the negative effects of perceived interruptions does not suffice to understand the full impact of interruptions by online messages in modern jobs.     

Manipulation of dietary protein and nonstarch polysaccharide to control swine manure emissions

Odor and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from stored pig (Sus scrofa) manure were monitored for response to changes in the crude protein level (168 or 139 g kg(-1), as-fed basis) and nonstarch polysaccharide (NSP) content [i.e., control, or modified with beet pulp (Beta vulgaris L.), cornstarch, or xylanase] of diets fed to pigs in a production setting. Each diet was fed to one of eight pens of pigs according to a 2 x 4, full-factorial design, replicated over three time blocks with different groups of animals and random assignment of diets. Manure from each treatment was characterized and stored in a separate, ventilated, 200-L vessel. Repeated measurements of odor, carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from the vessels were taken every two weeks for eight weeks. Manure from high-protein diets had higher sulfur concentration and pH (P < or = 0.05). High-NSP (beet pulp) diets resulted in lower manure nitrogen and ammonia concentrations and pH (P < or = 0.05). Odor level and hedonic tone of exhaust air from the storage vessel headspaces were unaffected by the dietary treatments. Mean CO2 and CH4 emissions (1400 and 42 g d(-1) m(-3) manure, respectively) increased with lower dietary protein (P < or = 0.05). The addition of xylanase to high-protein diets caused a decrease in manure CO2 emissions, but an increase when added to low-protein diets (P < or = 0.05). Nitrous oxide emissions were negligible. Contrary to other studies, these results do not support the use of dietary protein reduction to reduce emissions from stored swine manure.     

Arsenic distribution in Florida urban soils: comparison between Gainesville and Miami

Arsenic contamination is of concern due to its effect as a carcinogen. Understanding the distribution of arsenic in urban soils is important for establishing baseline concentrations from which anthropogenic effects can be measured. The soil cleanup target level (SCTL) for arsenic in Florida (0.8 and 3.7 mg kg(-1) in residential and commercial areas, respectively) is lower than in most states and is near the arsenic background concentrations in Florida soils. The objective of this study was to characterize the distribution of arsenic in the soils of two Florida cities, Gainesville and Miami. More than 200 soil samples were collected from three land-use classes in each city (residential, commercial, and public land), digested with USEPA Method 3051a, and analyzed with graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrophotometry. Arsenic concentrations varied greatly in Gainesville, ranging from 0.21 to approximately 660 mg kg(-1) with a geometric mean (GM) of 0.40 mg kg(-1) (after discarding outliers), which was significantly lower than the GM of 2.81 mg kg(-1) in Miami, although Miami samples ranged only from 0.32 to approximately 110 mg kg(-1). Arsenic concentrations in 29 and 4% of the Gainesville soil samples and 95 and 33% of the Miami samples exceeded the Florida residential and commercial SCTL, respectively. This study is the first to provide information on arsenic distribution in urban soils of Florida, and the data are useful for assessing arsenic contamination and determining the need for remediation.     

Decadal change in vegetation and soil phosphorus pattern across the Everglades landscape

Wetlands respond to nutrient enrichment with characteristic increases in soil nutrients and shifts in plant community composition. These responses to eutrophication tend to be more rapid and longer lasting in oligotrophic systems. In this study, we documented changes associated with water quality from 1989 to 1999 in oligotrophic Everglades wetlands. We accomplished this by resampling soils and macrophytes along four transects in 1999 that were originally sampled in 1989. In addition to documenting soil phosphorus (P) levels and decadal changes in plant species composition at the same sites, we report macrophyte tissue nutrient and biomass data from 1999 for future temporal comparisons. Water quality improved throughout much of the Everglades in the 1990s. In spite of this improvement, though, we found that water quality impacts worsened during this time in areas of the northern Everglades (western Loxahatchee National Wildlife Refuge [NWR] and Water Conservation Area [WCA] 2A). Zones of high soil P (exceeding 700 mg P kg(-1) dry wt. soil) increased to more than 1 km from the western margin canal into the Loxahatchee NWR and more than 4 km from northern boundary canal into WCA-2A. This doubling of the high soil P zones since 1989 was paralleled with an expansion of cattail (Typha spp.)-dominated marsh in both regions. Macrophyte species richness declined in both areas from 1989 to 1999 (27% in the Loxahatchee NWR and 33% in WCA-2A). In contrast, areas well south of the Everglades Agricultural Area, induding WCA-3A and Everglades National Park (ENP), did not decline during this time. We found no significant decadal change in plant community patterns from 1989 and 1999 along transects in southern WCA-3A or Shark River Slough (ENP). Our 1999 sampling also included a new transect in Taylor Slough (ENP), which will allow change analysis here in the future. Regular sampling of these transects, to verify decadal-scale environmental impacts or improvements, will continue to be an important tool for long-term management and restoration of the Everglades.     

A CASE STUDY IN THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE FEDERAL WATER POLLUTION CONTROL ACT AMENDMENTS1

ABSTRACT: A general model of the policy implementation process is utilized to facilitate a discussion of the way Section 208 of PL 92-500 is being carried out on an areawide basis. A study of four “208 areas” in the “New York-Philadelphia corridor” highlights the operation of several variables used in the model. The varying political and socioeconomic conditions in geographic areas which have similar water quality problems are leading to the evolution of vastly different implementing structures, or institutional arrangements. The analysis suggests that these differences may have important implications for the success of the program in each of these areas. A major underlying theme is that such problems are characteristic of the 208 process nationwide and reflect general difficulties associated with managing water quality in a federal system.     

ENVIRONMENTAL CONSIDERATIONS IN CORPS PLANNING1

ABSTRACT: Survey data from samples of two types of Corps of Engineers planning studies have been collected. The nature of significant environmental issues affecting the studies was ascertained. Information concerning District administrative practices and communication patterns and extraorganizational coordination procedures was also obtained. Statistical analysis examined the relationships between these practices and procedures and the consideration given environmental issues in plan formulation and modification decisions. Environmental issues receive greater consideration in plan formulation decisions where District policies encourage interdisciplinary planning and direct communication between planners and environmental interests. Plan modification decisions reflect environmental considerations to a greater degree where significant controversy exists and where reviewing agencies actively pursue environmental issues.