Estimating age from recapture data: integrating incremental growth measures with ancillary data to infer age-at-length

Estimating the age of individuals in wild populations can be of fundamental importance for answering ecological questions, modeling population demographics, and managing exploited or threatened species. Significant effort has been devoted to determining age through the use of growth annuli, secondary physical characteristics related to age, and growth models. Many species, however, either do not exhibit physical characteristics useful for independent age validation or are too rare to justify sacrificing a large number of individuals to establish the relationship between size and age. Length-at-age models are well represented in the fisheries and other wildlife management literature. Many of these models overlook variation in growth rates of individuals and consider growth parameters as population parameters. More recent models have taken advantage of hierarchical structuring of parameters and Bayesian inference methods to allow for variation among individuals as functions of environmental covariates or individual-specific random effects. Here, we describe hierarchical models in which growth curves vary as individual-specific stochastic processes, and we show how these models can be fit using capture-recapture data for animals of unknown age along with data for animals of known age. We combine these independent data sources in a Bayesian analysis, distinguishing natural variation (among and within individuals) from measurement error. We illustrate using data for African dwarf crocodiles, comparing von Bertalanffy and logistic growth models. The analysis provides the means of predicting crocodile age, given a single measurement of head length. The von Bertalanffy was much better supported than the logistic growth model and predicted that dwarf crocodiles grow from 19.4 cm total length at birth to 32.9 cm in the first year and 45.3 cm by the end of their second year. Based on the minimum size of females observed with hatchlings, reproductive maturity was estimated to be at nine years. These size benchmarks are believed to represent thresholds for important demographic parameters; improved estimates of age, therefore, will increase the precision of population projection models. The modeling approach that we present can be applied to other species and offers significant advantages when multiple sources of data are available and traditional aging techniques are not practical.     

MAPPING REGIONAL PRECIPITATION INTENSITY DURATION FREQUENCY ESTIMATES1

ABSTRACT: For regional precipitation frequency analyses, methods are needed to spatially interpolate or smooth point intensity duration frequency (IDF) estimates at gage sites for the purposes of visualization and estimation at ungaged sites. In this study to update IDF estimates for Michigan, the assumption is made that for practical purposes, the entire state may be treated as a homogeneous region in which annual maximum precipitation is identically distributed at each site apart from a site‐specific scaling factor, commonly known as the index flood. Several interpolation and smoothing techniques are evaluated for IDF estimation at ungaged sites, including trend surface analysis, thin plate splines, inverse distance weighting, and several kriging algorithms. Ordinary block kriging is recommended as a practical and objective method for smoothing the variability in the index flood values and developing isopluvial maps.     

AN APPLICATION OF NETWORK THEORY TO WATER MANAGEMENT IN POULTRY PROCESSING1

ABSTRACT This paper summarizes a study employing a systems approach for analyzing one class of modifications within a poultry processing plant. The modifications considered were changes in water-flow arrangements and process characteristics to reduce water intake of the plant and waste-treatment costs. The object of the study was to develop a technique or techniques by which a combination of proposed modifications could be chosen to minimize water flow through the plant. Existing and proposed flows were represented as a network, and linear programming was used to solve the minimum-flow problem for the network. Application of the technique was made to an existing, typical plant in Durham, N.C. Results of the application showed fresh water intake could be reduced by 45% to 51%, and furthermore that annual returns of 62% to 494% could be obtained on investment in the optimum modification sets, as fresh water costs varying from 10 cents to $1.00 per 1000 gal. Types of modifications of a poultry processing plant are classified by types, and the relative importance and effectiveness of each type are discussed.     

Efficient implementation of the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm,with application to the Cormack–Jolly–Seber model

Judicious choice of candidate generating distributions improves efficiency of the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. In Bayesian applications, it is sometimes possible to identify an approximation to the target posterior distribution; this approximate posterior distribution is a good choice for candidate generation. These observations are applied to analysis of the Cormack–Jolly–Seber model and its extensions.     

Analyzing the tradeoffs among ecological and fishing effects on an example fish community: A multispecies (fisheries) production model

Species interactions such as predation or competition can have notable implications for fish population dynamics. Stock status and associated biological reference points can be misrepresented if these interactions are not considered. Here we present a multispecies, biomass production model (MS-PROD) developed by incorporating modifications to the Schaefer production model. The modifications explicitly emphasize a functional group approach, highlighting the effects of species interactions that include competition between species within a group, competition between groups, and predation. The mathematical formulation also includes constraints on carrying capacity for both the entire system and for individual groups. We applied the model as initialized to the Northeast U.S. Large Marine Ecosystem finfish community. We then executed simulations designed to explore the behavior of the model with respect to fishery exploitation and ecological interactions. Collectively, the results demonstrated the utility, and the need, for incorporating ecological effects into fisheries models.     

Model weights and the foundations of multimodel inference

Statistical thinking in wildlife biology and ecology has been profoundly influenced by the introduction of AIC (Akaike's information criterion) as a tool for model selection and as a basis for model averaging. In this paper, we advocate the Bayesian paradigm as a broader framework for multimodel inference, one in which model averaging and model selection are naturally linked, and in which the performance of AIC-based tools is naturally evaluated. Prior model weights implicitly associated with the use of AIC are seen to highly favor complex models: in some cases, all but the most highly parameterized models in the model set are virtually ignored a priori. We suggest the usefulness of the weighted BIC (Bayesian information criterion) as a computationally simple alternative to AIC, based on explicit selection of prior model probabilities rather than acceptance of default priors associated with AIC. We note, however, that both procedures are only approximate to the use of exact Bayes factors. We discuss and illustrate technical difficulties associated with Bayes factors, and suggest approaches to avoiding these difficulties in the context of model selection for a logistic regression. Our example highlights the predisposition of AIC weighting to favor complex models and suggests a need for caution in using the BIC for computing approximate posterior model weights.     

UTILIZATION OF REMOTE SENSING IN RIVER BASIN STUDIES1

ABSTRACT: Remote sensing techniques have the potential for significantly reducing the level of effort in a river basin water quality study. An immediate requirement exists, however, for the formulation of the proper methodology for the application of remote sensing to this problem area. A general methodology is proposed for conduct of river basin water quality studies. The primary advantage offered by the proposed methodology is a technique for rapid evaluation of the water quality conditions of a river basin. Remote sensing techniques are a fundamental part of the methodology. The proposed methodology consists of two phases. Phase I deals with the study of the water resource characteristics of the basin as a system and identification of “critical areas.” Phase II of the methodology involves the detailed study of the critical areas by means of computerized water quality simulation models.     

Seasonal components of avian population change: joint analysis of two large-scale monitoring programs

We present a combined analysis of data from two large-scale surveys of bird populations. The North American Breeding Bird Survey is conducted each summer; the Christmas Bird Count is conducted in early winter. The temporal staggering of these surveys allows investigation of seasonal components of population change, which we illustrate with an examination of the effects of severe winters on the Carolina Wren (Thryothorus ludovicianus). Our analysis uses a hierarchical log-linear model with controls for survey-specific sampling covariates. Temporal change in population size is modeled seasonally, with covariates for winter severity. Overall, the winter-spring seasons are associated with 82% of the total population variation for Carolina Wrens, and an additional day of snow cover during winter-spring is associated with an incremental decline of 1.1% of the population.     

Biomonitoring of persistent organochlorine pesticides, PCDD/PCDFs and dioxin-like PCBs in blood of children from South West Germany (Baden-Wuerttemberg) from 1993 to 2003

In the context of a monitoring program, persistent organic pollutants (POPs) were quantified in the blood of 10 year old children at four different demographic regions in Baden-Wuerttemberg, a highly industrialised federal state in South West Germany. DDE, HCB, PCB 138, PCB 153 and PCB 180 were measured in 1996/1997, 1998/1999, 2000/2001 and 2002/2003 in individual samples of about 400 children per year. PCDD/PCDFs and some relevant coplanar PCBs were determined in pooled samples from children in seven cycles from 1993 to 2003. Blood concentrations of the investigated compounds decreased in that time period by a factor of 2-4 with the exception of most PCDFs. The concentrations of POPs in the blood of the children were distinctly lower than the concentrations reported for adults. Breast feeding was associated with about 30% higher median concentrations of DDE, HCB, PCBs and a 30% increase for mean PCDD/PCDF concentrations. Concerning demographic differences, significant lower concentrations of HCB, PCBs and PCDD/PCDFs could be seen in children from Mannheim compared to the region of Aulendorf. About 10-20% higher concentrations were found in boys compared to girls for HCB, indicator PCBs and PCDD/PCDFs. The pattern of non-ortho and mono-ortho PCBs in the blood of children was similar to the pattern reported for mother's milk, and PCB 126 and PCB 156 contributed about 70% to the toxicity of dioxin-like PCBs and about one-third to total TEQ including PCDD/PCDFs.     

SNAKES USED IN ETHNOMEDICINE IN NORTHEAST BRAZIL

This paper documents zootherapeutic practices in Northeast Brazil. It is primarily based on field surveys carried out in fishing villages located in the States of Maranhão and Paraíba, where dwellers provided information on snake species used as medicine, body parts used to prepare the remedies, and the illnesses to which the remedies were prescribed. The species used as medicinal drug and their respective families were: Crotalus durissus (rattlesnake), Bothrops leucurus (‘lance head’, a venomous snake), and Lachesis muta (bushmaster) of the family Crotalidae; and Boa constrictor (boa constrictor), Epicrates cenchria (‘salamanta’), and Eunectes murinus (anaconda) of the family (Boidae). These zootherapeutical resources were used for the cure of 14 illnesses. The most commonly cited species were Crotalus durissus (n=26) e Boa constrictor (n=6), Apparently, the medicinal use of snakes does not pose a threat for their population in the studied sites.