Data Requirements for Developing Adaptations to Climate Variability and Change

An extensive foundation of high quality data and information on the climate and on the biological, environmental and social systems affected by climate is required in order to understand the climate impact processes involved, to develop new adaptation practices, and to subsequently implement these practices. Experience of the impacts of current and past variability of climate and sea level is a prime source of information. Many practices are in use to reduce climate impacts, for example in engineering design, agricultural risk management and climate prediction services, though their roles as adaptations to climate change are not widely appreciated. While there are good data sets on some factors and in some regions, in many cases the databases are inadequate and there are few data sets on adaptation-specific quantities such as vulnerability, resilience and adaptation effectiveness. Current international action under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) pays little attention to adaptation and its information requirements. Furthermore there are trends toward reduced data gathering and to restrictions on access to data sets, especially arising from cost and commercialisation pressures. To effectively respond to the changes in climate that are now inevitable, governments will need to more clearly identify adaptation as a central feature of climate change policy and make a renewed shared commitment to collecting and freely exchanging the necessary data.     

Equity rules for burden sharing in the mitigation process of climate change

Although international negotiation on the mitigation of climate change is a process of determining burden-sharing rules between countries, there has been no clear agreement on equity principles for burden sharing. During the negotiating process up to the Kyoto Protocol, various proposals were made on such burden-sharing rules, but an agreement on emission targets for Annex I countries was achieved without explicitly agree-ing to any rules. In the next phase of the negotiation, debates on emission targets are likely to shift from those between developed countries to those between all parties to the convention. In such a phase, debates on burden-sharing rules will be revisited. The purpose of this paper is: (1) to determine implicitly a formula for the rule for burden sharing between Annex I countries that was considered to be underlying the emission targets of the Kyoto Protocol, and (2) to examine plausible emission targets and timing of commitments for non-Annex I countries in the future by using the result of the analysis on the Kyoto Protocol. A multi-regression method is used for this purpose. It was concluded that the burden sharing between Annex I countries in the Kyoto Protocol can mostly be explained by three variables: the increase in the rate of CO₂ emission during the years 1990 to 2010, the increase in the rate of afforestation between 1990 and 1995, and the GDP per capita at the time of negotiation. The timing of future commitments of developing countries and the levels of targets differ widely, depending on which index or formula is agreed as “equitable”. Some of the developing countries would have to start limiting their emissions within several years if GDP per capita or CO₂ per capita were chosen as the burden-sharing indicator. Developing countries would not have to make commitments until the mid-late 21st century if population growth rate were chosen. If the inferred formula of the Kyoto Protocol were applied to developing countries, they would have had to start mild limitation from 1990.     

How democratic innovations realise democratic goods. Two case studies of area committees in the Netherlands

Participatory planning is becoming increasingly integral to governance. Numerous planning innovations are developed which aim to increase democratic legitimacy and improve decision making. This paper critically reflects on a typical Dutch innovation: the area committee. Based on two individual case studies, we investigate whether area committees realise democratic legitimacy in existing planning practices. Analytically, we focus on four democratic goods: inclusiveness, popular control, considered judgement and transparency. Based on the interdependencies between area committees and government structures we discuss the potential and dilemmas for the area committee to contribute to the democratic legitimacy of environmental policy and rural development.     

Effects of Climate and Land Cover on Hydrology in the Southeastern U.S.: Potential Impacts on Watershed Planning

The hydrologic response to statistically downscaled general circulation model simulations of daily surface climate and land cover through 2099 was assessed for the Apalachicola‐Chattahoochee‐Flint River Basin located in the southeastern United States. Projections of climate, urbanization, vegetation, and surface‐depression storage capacity were used as inputs to the Precipitation‐Runoff Modeling System to simulate projected impacts on hydrologic response. Surface runoff substantially increased when land cover change was applied. However, once the surface depression storage was added to mitigate the land cover change and increases of surface runoff (due to urbanization), the groundwater flow component then increased. For hydrologic studies that include projections of land cover change (urbanization in particular), any analysis of runoff beyond the change in total runoff should include effects of stormwater management practices as these features affect flow timing and magnitude and may be useful in mitigating land cover change impacts on streamflow. Potential changes in water availability and how biota may respond to changes in flow regime in response to climate and land cover change may prove challenging for managers attempting to balance the needs of future development and the environment. However, these models are still useful for assessing the relative impacts of climate and land cover change and for evaluating tradeoffs when managing to mitigate different stressors.