Applying habitat and population-density models to land-cover time series to inform IUCN Red List assessments

The IUCN (International Union for Conservation of Nature) Red List categories and criteria are the most widely used framework for assessing the relative extinction risk of species. The criteria are based on quantitative thresholds relating to the size, trends, and structure of species’ distributions and populations. However, data on these parameters are sparse and uncertain for many species and unavailable for others, potentially leading to their misclassification or classification as data deficient. We devised an approach that combines data on land-cover change, species-specific habitat preferences, population abundance, and dispersal distance to estimate key parameters (extent of occurrence, maximum area of occupancy, population size and trend, and degree of fragmentation) and hence predict IUCN Red List categories for species. We applied our approach to nonpelagic birds and terrestrial mammals globally (∼15,000 species). The predicted categories were fairly consistent with published IUCN Red List assessments, but more optimistic overall. We predicted 4.2% of species (467 birds and 143 mammals) to be more threatened than currently assessed and 20.2% of data deficient species (10 birds and 114 mammals) to be at risk of extinction. Incorporating the habitat fragmentation subcriterion reduced these predictions 1.5–2.3% and 6.4–14.9% (depending on the quantitative definition of fragmentation) for threatened and data deficient species, respectively, highlighting the need for improved guidance for IUCN Red List assessors on the application of this aspect of the IUCN Red List criteria. Our approach complements traditional methods of estimating parameters for IUCN Red List assessments. Furthermore, it readily provides an early-warning system to identify species potentially warranting changes in their extinction-risk category based on periodic updates of land-cover information. Given our method relies on optimistic assumptions about species distribution and abundance, all species predicted to be more at risk than currently evaluated should be prioritized for reassessment.     

Evaluation of Flood and Landslide Risk to the Population of Italy

We have compiled a database of floods and landslides that occurred in Italy between AD 1279 and 2002 and caused deaths, missing persons, injuries, and homelessness. Analysis of the database indicates that more than 50,593 people died, went missing, or were injured in 2580 flood and landslide events. Harmful events were inventoried in 26.3% of the 8103 Italian municipalities. Fatal events were most frequent in the Alpine regions of northern Italy and were caused by both floods and landslides. In southern Italy, landslides were the principal agents of fatalities and were most numerous in the Campania region. Casualties were most frequent in the autumn. Fast-moving landslides, including rock falls, rockslides, rock avalanches, and debris flows, caused the largest number of deaths. In order to assess the overall risk posed by these processes, we merged the historical catalogs and identified 2682 “hydrogeomorphological” events that triggered single or multiple landslides and floods. We estimated individual risk through the calculation of mortality rates for both floods and landslides and compared these rates to the death rates for other natural, medical, and human-induced hazards in Italy. We used the frequency distribution of events with fatalities to ascertain the magnitude and frequency of the societal risks posed by floods and landslides. We quantified these risks in a Bayesian model that describes the probabilities of fatal flood and landslide events in Italy.     

Quantifying sources of climate uncertainty to inform risk analysis for climate change decision-making

Quantitative estimates of future climate change and its various impacts are often based on complex climate models which incorporate a number of physical processes. As these models continue to become more sophisticated, it is commonly assumed that the latest generation of climate models will provide us with better estimates of climate change. Here, we quantify the uncertainty in future climate change projections using two multi-model ensembles of climate model simulations and divide it into different components: internal, scenario and model. The contributions of these sources of uncertainty changes as a function of variable, temporal and spatial scale and especially lead time in the future. In the new models, uncertainty intervals for each of the components have increased. For temperature, importance of scenario uncertainty is the largest over low latitudes and increases nonlinearly after the mid-century. It has a small importance for precipitation simulations on all time scales, which hampers estimating the effect which any mitigation efforts might have. In line with current state-of-the-art adaptation approaches, we argue that despite these uncertainties climate models can provide useful information to support adaptation decision-making. Moreover, adaptation decisions should not be postponed in the hope that future improved scientific understanding will result in more accurate predictions of future climate change. Such simulations might not become available. On the contrary, while planning adaptation initiatives, a rational framework for decision-making under uncertainty should be employed. We suggest that there is an urgent need for continued development and use of improved risk analysis methods for climate change adaptation.     

Freshwater discharge from the drainage basin to the Venice Lagoon (Italy)

The twelve major tributaries of the Venice Lagoon (accounting for the 97% of the inputs from the drainage basin) were monitored in the framework of the DRAIN project (1998-2000) in order to obtain a detailed knowledge on the hydrological regimes and to measure the mean annual freshwater discharge from surface runoff. The study represents an essential step in the estimate of the pollutant load delivered to the lagoon that must necessarily be based on a solid understanding of the fluxes of material out of the drainage basin. Due to the influence of the tide in the majority of the gauging sections, a specific methodology for the measurement of the discharge was developed. The main results of the study are described, underlining the differences in the regime of the investigated streams. A rainfall-runoff analysis evidenced the different characteristics of the monitored tributaries, in terms of specific hydrological features, morphology of the individual sub-basins, management of the water resource and spatial distribution of rainfall. An estimate of the maximum peak discharge from the drainage basin is finally obtained from data of an extreme flood event occurred in November 1999.     

Detection of Hepatitis E Virus in Livers and Muscle Tissues of Wild Boars in Italy

Food and Environmental Virology - In industrialized countries, hepatitis E is now recognized as an emerging zoonosis. Autochthonous cases have been increased over recent years in Europe and are...     

Design-based spatial interpolation with data driven selection of the smoothing parameter

Environmental and Ecological Statistics - In the inverse distance weighting interpolation the interpolated, value is a weighted mean of the sampled values, with weights decreasing with the...     

Biogenic disturbance determines invasion success in a subtidal soft-sediment system

Theoretically, disturbance and diversity can influence the success of invasive colonists if (1) resource limitation is a prime determinant of invasion success and (2) disturbance and diversity affect the availability of required resources. However, resource limitation is not of overriding importance in all systems, as exemplified by marine soft sediments, one of Earth's most widespread habitat types. Here, we tested the disturbance-invasion hypothesis in a marine soft-sediment system by altering rates of biogenic disturbance and tracking the natural colonization of plots by invasive species. Levels of sediment disturbance were controlled by manipulating densities of burrowing spatangoid urchins, the dominant biogenic sediment mixers in the system. Colonization success by two invasive species (a gobiid fish and a semelid bivalve) was greatest in plots with sediment disturbance rates < 500 cm(3) x m(-2) x d(-1), at the low end of the experimental disturbance gradient (0 to > 9000 cm(3) x m(-2) x d(-1)). Invasive colonization declined with increasing levels of sediment disturbance, counter to the disturbance-invasion hypothesis. Increased sediment disturbance by the urchins also reduced the richness and diversity of native macrofauna (particularly small, sedentary, surface feeders), though there was no evidence of increased availability of resources with increased disturbance that would have facilitated invasive colonization: sediment food resources (chlorophyll a and organic matter content) did not increase, and space and access to overlying water were not limited (low invertebrate abundance). Thus, our study revealed the importance of biogenic disturbance in promoting invasion resistance in a marine soft-sediment community, providing further evidence of the valuable role of bioturbation in soft-sediment systems (bioturbation also affects carbon processing, nutrient recycling, oxygen dynamics, benthic community structure, and so on.). Bioturbation rates are influenced by the presence and abundance of large burrowing species (like spatangoid urchins). Therefore, mass mortalities of large bioturbators could inflate invasion risk and alter other aspects of ecosystem performance in marine soft-sediment habitats.     

Population structure of short-beaked common dolphins (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Delphinus delphis</Emphasis>) in the North Atlantic Ocean as revealed by mitochondrial and nuclear genetic markers

The understanding of population structure and gene flow of marine pelagic species is paramount to monitoring, management and conservation studies. Such studies are often hampered by the potentially high dispersal behavior of the species, the lack of obvious geographical barriers in the marine environment and the scarce sample availability. Short-beaked common dolphins (Delphinus delphis) are widespread in coastal and open-ocean habitats of the North Atlantic Ocean, nevertheless population structure and migratory patterns are poorly understood. Furthermore, concern has been raised about the status of the species because large numbers of dolphins have been taken incidentally in several fisheries throughout the North Atlantic in the past decades. In the present study, a large number of individual samples were obtained from seasonal and spatial aggregations of common dolphins from western (wNA) and eastern North Atlantic (eNA) regions, mostly using opportunistic sampling (i.e. from incidental entanglement in fishing gear or beach-cast carcasses). Genetic variability was investigated using nuclear (14 microsatellite loci) and mitochondrial (360 bp of the control region) genetic markers. Levels of genetic diversity were relatively high in all sampled areas and no evidence of recent reduction of effective population size (i.e. bottleneck) was detected at the nuclear loci. Significant population structure was detected between the two main regions (wNA and eNA) where it appeared to be more pronounced at mitochondrial (F _ST = 0.018, P < 0.001) than nuclear markers (F _ST = 0.005, P < 0.05), indicating the presence of at least two genetically distinct populations of common dolphins in the North Atlantic Ocean. In contrast, no significant genetic structure was detected between temporal aggregations of dolphins from within the same region, suggesting possible seasonal movement patterns at a regional scale. The observed levels of genetic differentiation between classes of markers are discussed here as a possible consequence of migratory patterns or recent population subdivision. An erratum to this article can be found at     

Comparison of atmosphere/aquatic environment concentration ratio of volatile chlorinated hydrocarbons between temperate regions and Antarctica

For the purpose of understanding the transport and deposition mechanisms and the air–water distribution of some volatile chlorinated hydrocarbons (VCHCs), their atmosphere/aquatic environment concentration ratio was evaluated. In addition, for the purpose of differentiating VCHC behaviour in a temperate climate from its behaviour in a polar climate, the atmosphere/aquatic environment concentration ratio evaluated in matrices from temperate zones was compared with the concentration ratio evaluated in Antarctic matrices.In order to perform air samplings also at rigid Antarctic temperatures, the sampling apparatus, consisting of a diaphragm pump and canisters, was suitably modified.Chloroform, 1,1,1-trichloroethane, tetrachloromethane, 1,1,2-trichloroethylene and tetrachloroethylene were measured in air, water and snow using specific techniques composed of a purpose-made cryofocusing-trap-injector (for air samples) and a modified purge-and-trap injector (for aqueous samples) coupled to a gas chromatograph with mass spectrometric detection operating in selected ion monitoring mode. The VCHCs were retrieved in all the investigated matrices, both Italian and Antarctic, with concentrations varying from tens to thousands of ng m⁻³ in air and from digits to hundreds of ng kg⁻¹ in water and snow.The atmosphere/aquatic environment concentration ratios were always found to be lower than 1. In particular, the Italian air/water concentration ratios were smaller than the Antarctic ones, by reason of the higher atmospheric photochemical activity in temperate zones. On the other hand, the Antarctic air/snow concentration ratios proved to be largely in favour of snow with respect to the Italian ratios, thus corroborating the hypothesis of a more efficient VCHC deposition mechanism and accumulation on Antarctic snow.     

A Systematic Review of Public Attitudes,Perceptions and Behaviours Towards Production Diseases Associated with Farm Animal Welfare

Increased productivity may have negative impacts on farm animal welfare (FAW) in modern animal production systems. Efficiency gains in production are primarily thought to be due to the intensification of production, and this has been associated with an increased incidence of production diseases, which can negatively impact upon FAW. While there is a considerable body of research into consumer attitudes towards FAW, the extent to which this relates specifically to a reduction in production diseases in intensive systems, and whether the increased incidence of diseases represents a barrier to consumer acceptance of their increased use, requires further investigation. Therefore a systematic review of public attitudes towards FAW was conducted, with a specific focus on production diseases in intensive systems. Four databases were searched to identify relevant studies. A screening process, using a set of pre-determined inclusion criteria, identified 80 studies, with the strength of evidence and uncertainty assessed for each. A thematic analysis led to the identification of 6 overarching themes constructed from 15 subthemes. The results demonstrate that the public are concerned about FAW in modern production systems. Concern varied in relation to age, gender, education and familiarity with farming. Naturalness and humane treatment were central to what was considered good welfare. An evidence gap was highlighted in relation to attitudes towards specific production diseases, with no studies specifically addressing this. However, the prophylactic use of antibiotics was identified as a concern. A number of dissonance strategies were adopted by consumers to enable guilt free meat consumption.