COMPARISON OF STOCHASTIC AND DETERMINISTIC DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING FOR RESERVOIR OPERATING RULE GENERATION1

ABSTRACT: Two dynamic programming models — one deterministic and one stochastic — that may be used to generate reservoir operating rules are compared. The deterministic model (DPR) consists of an algorithm that cycles through three components: a dynamic program, a regression analysis, and a simulation. In this model, the correlation between the general operating rules, defined by the regression analysis and evaluated in the simulation, and the optimal deterministic operation defined by the dynamic program is increased through an iterative process. The stochastic dynamic program (SDP) describes streamflows with a discrete lag-one Markov process. To test the usefulness of both models in generating reservoir operating rules, real-time reservoir operation simulation models are constructed for three hydrologically different sites. The rules generated by DPR and SDP are then applied in the operation simulation model and their performance is evaluated. For the test cases, the DPR generated rules are more effective in the operation of medium to very large reservoirs and the SDP generated rules are more effective for the operation of small reservoirs.     

Tropic attributes of the mudskipper, Periophthalmus barbarus (Gobiidae: Oxudercinae) in the mangrove swamps of Imo River estuary, Nigeria

Aspects of the trophic attributes of the mudskipper,Periophthalmus barbarus occurring in the mangrove swamps of ImoRiver estuary, Nigeria, were investigated during a 12-month period(April, 1992-March, 1993). Feeding intensity increased with size;it was higher in the dry season (November-April) than in the wetseason (May-October); monthly changes in the indices of feedingintensity were significantly correlated. Major food objectscomprised detritus and benthic algae; crustaceans, insects,macrophyte matter and sand grains were minor food objects whilefish, molluscs, Chilopoda, nematodes and fungi were unconsciouslydevoured objects. Diet varied seasonally; algae and sesarmid crabswere generally more in the dry season than during the rains whereasFPOM and fish increased in the wet over dry season. The mudskipperdisplay a high degree of euryphagy and can be considered as ageneralist and an omnivore. The lower trophic status of P. barbarusqualifies it as a good aquaculture candidate. Food richness washigher in big-sized class (BSC) than small-sized class (SSC).Size-based and seasonal variations were not apparent in foodrichness. Diet breadth was higher in the BSC than the SSC; therewas dry season increase in diet breadth.     

Effect of Climatic Factors on the Growth of Representatives of the Genus Pinus (Pinaceae) under Conditions of Introduction

Four introduced and one aboriginal species of the genus Pinus L. have been studied in the middle taiga subzone of southern Karelia. Significant interspecific differences in the dates of onset, cessation, and peak of the growth of shoots and needles have been revealed. It has been shown that their annual increment depends on the rate of growth, rather than on its duration. The dynamics of shoot and needle growth in introduced and aboriginal species, though largely similar, differ in some respects. These differences reflect species-specific responses to hydrothermal conditions in a certain growing season.     

The Role of Foreign Direct Investment in Urban Environmental Management: Some Evidence from Hanoi, Vietnam

In recent years flows of foreign direct investment (FDI) to developing countries have rapidly been increasing. It is now an important contributor to the national economy and urban growth in scores of developing countries. Rapid urbanization in these countries is leading to many problems in the cities. Existing urban infrastructure and municipal services have been unable to cope with the increased demand arising from growing population and rapid economic growth. Consequently, the environment in these cities has deteriorated alarmingly. This paper assesses the role of FDI in urban environmental management (UEM) by analyzing the linkages between them for Hanoi City in Vietnam. The paper's analysis and findings are presented under three main themes: one, FDI, employment and income; two, FDI and environmental degradation; and three, potential of utilizing FDI for the provision of urban environmental infrastructure and services (UEI&S) in order to improve the urban environment. Both primary and secondary source data have been used. Policy implications of the research findings are drawn from the perspective of sustainable development.     

Prenatal diagnosis and molecular cytogenetic characterisation of a small de novo interstitial duplication 16q11.2-q13

We describe the first prenatally detected case of a small de novo interstitial duplication of chromosome 16q. This chromosomal aberration is extremely rare. Amniocentesis was indicated by advanced maternal age only. Ultrasound examinations of the foetus showed no abnormalities. Conventional and molecular cytogenetic analyses on cultured amniocytes by comparative genomic hybridisation (CGH) and fluorescence in situ hybridisation (FISH) using partial chromosome paints and a locus-specific YAC clone revealed a de novo direct duplication of the chromosomal region 16q11.2-q13 leading to a partial trisomy 16q (46,XX,dup(16)(q11.2q13)). There are only five postnatal reports of comparable duplications involving this chromosomal region. These patients presented with little or no associated dysmorphic features but with significant neurodevelopmental delay and severe behavioural problems. After genetic counselling, the parents opted for termination of pregnancy. Post-mortem examination showed slight facial dysmorphic signs, minor dysgenesis of the ovaries and an atypical outflow of the arteria thyroidea ima. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Barriers Beyond the Partners: Bureaucratic and Political Constraints to Implementing Joint Forest Management in Tamil Nadu,India

Whereas past research has treated co-management of common pool resources as if villagers and project implementing authorities were the only relevant actors, numerous external factors beyond the control of these two partners create barriers to successful co-management. This paper draws on discussions with Forest Department officials to examine the influence of these forces on the outcomes of Joint Forest Management (JFM) in Tamil Nadu, India. An empirical inquiry into the operational aspects of JFM indicates the important roles of political parties, powerful people, and other state institutions and functionaries as well as the flow of foreign funding. Further, the strong demand by local people for socio-economic development interventions as opposed to improvement of degraded forests belittles the role of the Forest Department relative to other departments. Numerous other conditioning factors and relationships are explored. The authors call for reforms in public governance to allow better participation of all the actors involved for this participatory management approach to succeed and sustain.     

Perceptions toward stewardship among residents living near U.S. Department of Energy Nuclear Facilities

Although stewardship has been widely defined and used in environmental management and planning, there is a dearth of studies that describe how the lay public perceives this concept. A national sample of residents in 14 states who live near DOE nuclear facilities were interviewed to delineate public understanding and awareness of the stewardship program of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). This study discusses the findings of the survey and discusses how institutional trust influences public participation and resident’s choices of potential stewards. Almost 40% of the respondents could not define stewardship; those who did, believed that ‘responsibility,’ ‘management,’ and ‘accountability’ are key elements of stewardship. In addition, about a third of the respondents identified Federal groups and the DOE as potential stewards. Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue     

Prenatal prediction of childhood-onset spinal muscular atrophy (SMA) in Turkish families

Childhood-onset spinal muscular atrophy (SMA) is one of the most common neurodegenerative genetic disorders. SMN1 is the SMA-determining gene deleted or mutated in the majority of SMA cases. There is no effective cure or treatment for this disease yet. Thus, the availability of prenatal testing is important. Here we report prenatal prediction for 68 fetuses in 63 Turkish SMA families using direct deletion analysis of the SMN1 gene by restriction digestion. The genotype of the index case was known in 40 families (Group A) but unknown in the remaining 23 families (Group B). A total of ten fetuses were predicted to be affected. Eight of these fetuses were derived from Group A and two of these fetuses were from Group B families. Two fetuses from the same family in Group A had the SMNhyb1 gene in addition to homozygous deletion of the NAIP gene. One fetus from Group A was homozygously deleted for only exon 8 of the SMN2 gene, and further analysis showed the presence of both the SMN1 and SMNhyb1 genes but not the SMN2 gene. In addition, one carrier with a homozygous deletion of only exon 8 of the SMN1 gene was detected to have a SMNhyb2 gene, which was also found in the fetus. To our knowledge, these are the first prenatal cases with SMNhyb genes. Follow-up studies demonstrated that the prenatal predictions and the phenotype of the fetuses correlated well in 33 type I pregnancies demonstrating that a careful molecular analysis of the SMN genes is very useful in predicting the phenotype of the fetus in families at risk for SMA. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.