Using a Bayesian network to clarify areas requiring research in a host–pathogen system

Bayesian network analyses can be used to interactively change the strength of effect of variables in a model to explore complex relationships in new ways. In doing so, they allow one to identify influential nodes that are not well studied empirically so that future research can be prioritized. We identified relationships in host and pathogen biology to examine disease‐driven declines of amphibians associated with amphibian chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis). We constructed a Bayesian network consisting of behavioral, genetic, physiological, and environmental variables that influence disease and used them to predict host population trends. We varied the impacts of specific variables in the model to reveal factors with the most influence on host population trend. The behavior of the nodes (the way in which the variables probabilistically responded to changes in states of the parents, which are the nodes or variables that directly influenced them in the graphical model) was consistent with published results. The frog population had a 49% probability of decline when all states were set at their original values, and this probability increased when body temperatures were cold, the immune system was not suppressing infection, and the ambient environment was conducive to growth of B. dendrobatidis. These findings suggest the construction of our model reflected the complex relationships characteristic of host–pathogen interactions. Changes to climatic variables alone did not strongly influence the probability of population decline, which suggests that climate interacts with other factors such as the capacity of the frog immune system to suppress disease. Changes to the adaptive immune system and disease reservoirs had a large effect on the population trend, but there was little empirical information available for model construction. Our model inputs can be used as a base to examine other systems, and our results show that such analyses are useful tools for reviewing existing literature, identifying links poorly supported by evidence, and understanding complexities in emerging infectious‐disease systems.     

Changes in the spatial distribution of spawning activity by north-east Atlantic mackerel in warming seas: 1977–2010

Migratory species with a broad geographic range, such as north-east Atlantic mackerel, may be amongst the fauna most able to respond to warming seas, typically with a poleward shift in range. Habitat heterogeneity could, however, produce more complex patterns than a simple polewards translation in distribution. We tested for changes in the central location and spatial spread of mackerel spawning over a 33-year period. Spatial statistics [centre of gravity (CoG) of egg production, spatial variance, and degree of anisotropy] were used to summarise interannual changes in the spawning locations of the western spawning stock of north-east Atlantic mackerel (NEA-WSC) using data from the ICES triennial egg survey. A northwards shift in CoG of egg production estimates was observed, related to both an expansion in the distribution in survey effort and warming waters of the north-east Atlantic. Sea surface temperature (SST) had a significant positive association with the observed northward movement of NEA-WSC mackerel, equivalent to a displacement of 37.7 km °C^?1 (based on spring mean SST for the region). The spatial distribution of spawning around the CoG also changed significantly with SST, with a less elongated spatial spread in warm years. An increase in the proportion of spawning over the Porcupine Bank demonstrated how habitat interacts with positional shifts to affect how north-east Atlantic mackerel are distributed around the centre of their spawning range.     

Female reproductive qualities affect male painted turtle (Chrysemys picta marginata) reproductive success

Male reproductive success (RS) in polygamous species with minimal social systems is often determined by the number of mates. However, because male RS is translated through females, the number of offspring sired can also be influenced by female qualities. Empirically sufficient data to document how tradeoffs between mate number and quality influence male RS are seldom available for long-lived, iteroparous species. We combined long-term life history data (1983–2006) on the E. S. George Reserve (ESGR, MI, USA) with parentage data from 155 clutches of 59 female painted turtles (Chrysemys picta marginata) of varying reproductive frequencies (2003–2006) to determine the relative contribution of female numbers and qualities on male RS. One previously documented trait of female painted turtles that can have substantial influences on male RS is repeat paternity through the use of stored sperm to fertilize over 95 % of within-year clutches. In addition, our study found that second-clutch producing female painted turtles on the ESGR have higher among-year reproductive frequencies than do first-clutch only females. Multiple paternity was detected in 14.1 % of clutches (min-max?=?6.1–30.0 % annually), and the number of mates of both sexes was low annually (males 1.0; females 1.2) and over 4 years (males 1.1; females 1.7). Among successful males, RS varied substantially (1–32 offspring) and was strongly influenced by the combination of female reproductive frequency and repeat paternity (>38 % among years), but not mate number. Low mate number for both sexes was unexpected in a species without complex mating behaviors or parental care.     

Geochemical distribution,bioavailability and potential toxicity of some trace metals in a complex micro-tidal estuary,Southwest India

The spatial and temporal variations of some trace metals in the surface sediments of Cochin Estuary were analyzed along with their geochemical associations to identify the possible sources, bioavailability and the health risks posed by them. The dominance of kaolinite and suggested that clay minerals distribution is influenced by sediment sorting. Total metal analysis revealed enrichment for Cd, Pb and Zn due to anthropogenic activities. The speciation analysis established that notwithstanding the large availability, carbonate as well as organic and sulfides bound fractions showed negligible associations with most of the metals. Hydrous Fe–Mn oxides appeared to play a major role in controlling the fate and transport of these metals in the sediments of Cochin Estuary. Lower contribution of the residual fractions for Cd (21%–26%), Pb (<60%) and Zn (24%–42%) indicated an obvious increase of other geochemical fractions. Risk assessment analysis revealed that regardless of total concentration, none of the analyzed metals were at safe levels in the estuary as appreciable percentages were found to be associated with mobile geochemical forms. The speciation study conspicuously established that the metals originating from non-geogenic sources are largely associated with the labile fractions and hence are more detrimental to the aquatic biota.     

Quantifying population declines based on presence‐only records for red‐list assessments

Accurate trend estimates are necessary for understanding which species are declining and which are most in need of conservation action. Imperfect species detection may result in unreliable trend estimates because this may lead to the overestimation of declines. Because many management decisions are based on population trend estimates, such biases could have severe consequences for conservation policy. We used an occupancy‐modeling framework to estimate detectability and calculate nationwide population trends for 14 Swiss amphibian species both accounting for and ignoring imperfect detection. Through the application of International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List criteria to the different trend estimates, we assessed whether ignoring imperfect detection could affect conservation policy. Imperfect detection occurred for all species and detection varied substantially among species, which led to the overestimation of population declines when detectability was ignored. Consequently, accounting for imperfect detection lowered the red‐list risk category for 5 of the 14 species assessed. We demonstrate that failing to consider species detectability can have serious consequences for species management and that occupancy modeling provides a flexible framework to account for observation bias and improve assessments of conservation status. A problem inherent to most historical records is that they contain presence‐only data from which only relative declines can be estimated. A move toward the routine recording of nonobservation and absence data is essential if conservation practitioners are to move beyond this toward accurate population trend estimation.     

The role of digital data entry in participatory environmental monitoring

Many argue that monitoring conducted exclusively by scientists is insufficient to address ongoing environmental challenges. One solution entails the use of mobile digital devices in participatory monitoring (PM) programs. But how digital data entry affects programs with varying levels of stakeholder participation, from nonscientists collecting field data to nonscientists administering every step of a monitoring program, remains unclear. We reviewed the successes, in terms of management interventions and sustainability, of 107 monitoring programs described in the literature (hereafter programs) and compared these with case studies from our PM experiences in Australia, Canada, Ethiopia, Ghana, Greenland, and Vietnam (hereafter cases). Our literature review showed that participatory programs were less likely to use digital devices, and 2 of our 3 more participatory cases were also slow to adopt digital data entry. Programs that were participatory and used digital devices were more likely to report management actions, which was consistent with cases in Ethiopia, Greenland, and Australia. Programs engaging volunteers were more frequently reported as ongoing, but those involving digital data entry were less often sustained when data collectors were volunteers. For the Vietnamese and Canadian cases, sustainability was undermined by a mismatch in stakeholder objectives. In the Ghanaian case, complex field protocols diminished monitoring sustainability. Innovative technologies attract interest, but the foundation of effective participatory adaptive monitoring depends more on collaboratively defined questions, objectives, conceptual models, and monitoring approaches. When this foundation is built through effective partnerships, digital data entry can enable the collection of more data of higher quality. Without this foundation, or when implemented ineffectively or unnecessarily, digital data entry can be an additional expense that distracts from core monitoring objectives and undermines project sustainability. The appropriate role of digital data entry in PM likely depends more on the context in which it is used and less on the technology itself.     

Molten carbonate fuel cells fed with biogas: Combating H2S

The use of biomass and waste to produce alternative fuels, due to environmental and energy security reasons, is a high-quality solution especially when integrated with high efficiency fuel cell applications. In this article we look into the coupling of an anaerobic digestion process of organic residues to electrochemical conversion to electricity and heat through a molten carbonate fuel cell (MCFC). In particular the pathway of the exceedingly harmful compound hydrogen sulphide (H₂S) in these phases is analysed. Hydrogen sulphide production in the biogas is strongly interrelated with methane and/or hydrogen yield, as well as with operating conditions like temperature and pH. When present in the produced biogas, this compound has multiple negative effects on the performance and durability of an MCFC. Therefore, there are important issues of integration to be solved.Three general approaches to solve the sulphur problem in the MCFC are possible. The first is to prevent the formation of hydrogen sulphide at the source: favouring conditions that inhibit its production during fermentation. Secondly, to identify the sulphur tolerance levels of the fuel cell components currently in use and develop sulphur-tolerant components that show long-term electrochemical performance and corrosion stability. The third approach is to remove the generated sulphur species to very low levels before the gas enters the fuel cell.