A spatially explicit backcasting approach for sustainable land-use planning

General backcasting as a decision support and planning method starts from desired future states and simulates developments backwards until reaching the present state. Development pathways that reveal steps to be taken to reach a certain future state, and milestones that serve as interim goals, are created during the process. Backcasting has hitherto only been applied in workshops or as a theoretical framework and no spatially explicit backcasting model has previously been established. This paper presents the development of a spatially explicit backcasting model. The proposed model first creates a future scenario utilizing an agent-based model and then simulates backwards. It is implemented using the programming language Python. The model has been applied to a case study for sustainable land-use planning in Salzburg, Austria. The results of the model run show a successful backcasting of land-use classes from a future state back to the present, in 10 year time steps.     

Impact of mineral components and selected trace metals on ambient PM10 concentrations

PM10 levels of the mineral components Si, Al, Fe, Ca, Mg and some trace metals were measured at three different sites in the urban area of Vienna (Austria). Observed trace metal concentrations varied between less than 0.1 ng m^?3 (Cd) and approximately 200 ng m^?3 (Zn), mineral components showed enhanced concentrations ranging from 0.01 μg m^?3 (Ca) to 16.3 μg m^?3 (Si). The contribution of the respective mineral oxides to PM10 mass concentrations accounted on average for 26.4 ± 16% (n = 1090) of the PM10 mass, with enhanced rates in spring and autumn (monthly averages of up to 40%) and decreased contributions in the cold season (monthly averages below 10%). The atmospheric occurrence of Al, Ti and Sr could be assigned to crustal sources, whereas for the elements Ba, Ca, Fe, Mg, Mn and V an increased contribution of non-crustal origin was observed. PM10 levels of As, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, Sb, Sn and Zn were predominantly derived from man-made emissions. Intersite comparison indicated that urban PM10 mass concentrations and PM10 levels of As, Pb and Zn were predominantly influenced from the transport of aerosols from outside into the city, whereas for the elements Ba, Mg, Ca, Cu and Fe a distinctly increased impact of local emissions was observed. The contribution of these urban emissions to total PM10 concentrations was estimated by calculating the so-called “urban impact”, which was found to be 32.7 ± 18% (n = 392) in the case of PM10 mass concentrations. The investigated elements accounted on average for 31.3 ± 19% (n = 392) of the observed PM10 mass increase. The mean values for the “urban impacts” of individual elements varied between 25.5% (As) and 77.0% (Ba).     

Assessing the long-term supply risks for mineral raw materials—a combined evaluation of past and future trends

This paper develops a method for identifying and assessing long-term supply risks for mineral raw materials. The method is based on a combined evaluation of past and future supply and demand trends. By analysing raw material boom and bust cycles over the past 50 years, we have quantified indicators and defined benchmarks for identifying critical market situations. By applying the method, risks for supply shortage may be identified at an early stage. In addition, a numerical evaluation model has been developed for better comparison between various mineral raw materials. Compared to other assessment methods this method uses specific benchmarks for each raw material to better assess supply risks. The method is embedded within a systematic and comprehensive analytical approach.     

Comparison of leaching tests to determine and quantify the release of inorganic contaminants in demolition waste

The changes in waste management policy caused by the massive generation of waste materials (e.g. construction and demolition waste material, municipal waste incineration products) has led to an increase in the reuse and recycling of waste materials. For environmental risk assessment, test procedures are necessary to examine waste materials before they can be reused. In this article, results of column and lysimeter leaching tests having been applied to inorganic compounds in a reference demolition waste material are presented. The results show a good agreement between the leaching behaviour determined with the lysimeter unit and the column units used in the laboratory. In view of less time and system requirements compared to lysimeter systems, laboratory column units can be considered as a practicable instrument to assess the time-dependent release of inorganic compounds under conditions similar to those encountered in a natural environment. The high concentrations of elements in the seepage water at the initial stage of elution are reflected by the laboratory column leaching tests. In particular, authorities or laboratories might benefit and have an easy-to-use, but nevertheless reliable, method to serve as a basis for decision-making.     

Metals, non-metals and PCB in electrical and electronic waste--actual levels in Switzerland

The chemical composition of waste of small electrical and electronic equipment (s-WEEE), a rapidly growing waste stream, was determined for selected metals (Cu, Sb, Hg etc.) and non-metals (Cl, Br, P) and PCBs. During a 3-day experiment, all output products and the s-WEEE input mass flows in a WEEE recycling plant were measured. Only output products were sampled and analyzed. Material balances were established, applying substance flow analysis (SFA). Transfer coefficients for the selected substances were also determined. The results demonstrate the capability of SFA to determine the composition of the highly heterogeneous WEEE for most substances with rather low uncertainty (2 sigma +/- 30%). The results confirm the growing importance of s-WEEE regarding secondary resource metals and potential toxic substances. Nowadays, the thirty times smaller s-WEEE turns over larger flows for many substances, compared to municipal solid waste. Transfer coefficient results serve to evaluate the separation efficiency of the recycling process and confirm--with the exception of PCB and Hg--the limitation of hand-sorting and mechanical processing to separate pollutants (Cd, Pb, etc.) out of reusable fractions. Regularly applied SFA would serve to assess the efficacy of legislative, organizational and technical measures on the WEEE.     

The historical record of PCB and PCDD/F deposition at Greifensee, a lake of the Swiss plateau, between 1848 and 1999

Dated sediment cores provide an excellent way to investigate the historical input of persistent organic pollutants into the environment and to identify possible sources of pollution. The vertical distribution of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins/polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDD/F) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB) was investigated in a sediment core from Greifensee to elucidate the historical trends of PCDD/F and PCB inputs between 1848 and 1999. Concentrations of PCB and PCDD/F increased by more than one order of magnitude between 1930 and 1960. PCB and PCDD/F concentrations were 5700 ng/kg dry weight (dw) and 160 ng/kg dw, respectively, in sediments originating from the late 1930s and reached a maximum of 130,000 ng/kg dw and 2400 ng/kg dw, respectively, in the early 1960s. From 1960 on, concentrations decreased to the 1930s level by the mid 1980s. A remarkable shift in the PCDD/F pattern was observed after the early 1940s. Before 1940, the PCDD/F pattern was PCDF dominated (ratio of PCDD to PCDF=0.41+/-0.11), while the PCDD started to be the major species after the early 1940s (ratio of PCDD to PCDF=1.46+/-0.38). The temporal trends of PCB and PCDD/F correlate surprisingly well with each other. This might be due to the coincidence of two factors. The introduction of PCB on the market in the 1930s resulted in emissions due to the widespread use of these industrial chemicals. In the same time period, waste incineration became an increasingly popular way to get rid of garbage, boosting the PCDD/F emissions significantly. The rapid decline of PCDD/F and PCB concentrations in the sediment starting in the early 1960s reflects the result of better emission control techniques in thermal processes and the improvement of waste water treatment in the catchment of Greifensee.     

Exemplifying whole-plant ozone uptake in adult forest trees of contrasting species and site conditions

Whole-tree O3 uptake was exemplified for Picea abies, Fagus sylvatica and Larix decidua in stands at high and low altitude and contrasting water availability through sap flow measurement in tree trunks, intrinsically accounting for drought and boundary layer effects on O3 flux. O3 uptake of evergreen spruce per unit foliage area was enhanced by 100% at high relative to low elevation, whereas deciduous beech and larch showed similar uptake regardless of altitude. The responsiveness of the canopy conductance to water vapor and, as a consequence, O3 uptake to soil moisture and air humidity did not differ between species. Unifying findings at the whole-tree level will promote cause-effect based O3 risk assessment and modeling.     

Regio- and stereoselective isomerization of hexabromocyclododecanes (HBCDs): kinetics and mechanism of gamma- to alpha-HBCD isomerization

Hexabromocyclododecanes (HBCDs) are high production volume chemicals (>20000 ty(-1)) used as flame retardants for plastics and textiles. Lately, we reported on the stereoselective isomerization of beta-HBCDs. Herein we present insights into the mechanism and kinetics of (+)gamma- to (+)alpha- and of (-)gamma- to (-)alpha-HBCD isomerization. Only two of the six bromine atoms migrated, indicating that rearrangements of gamma- to alpha-HBCDs are regio- and stereoselective as well. The apparent first-order isomerization rate constants increased from 0.0013 to 0.0031 to 0.0070 min(-1) at 120, 130, and 140 degrees C, respectively, corresponding to half-lives of 540, 230, and 99 min. Thus, a thermal treatment of materials containing gamma-HBCDs at temperatures >100 degrees C may induce the formation of alpha-HBCDs and, hence, may alter the diastereomeric ratio of a HBCD mixture. The inversion of vicinal dibromides in like-configurations (RR/SS) prevailed, whereas unlike-configurations (RS/SR) were not affected. An intramolecular, stereoselective migration of neighboring bromine atoms via a four-center transition state would explain the observed stereoisomer pattern and first-order kinetics. Despite the fact that vicinal dibromides in HBCDs prefer synclinal (gauche) conformations, antiperiplanar (staggered) conformations are assumed to facilitate concerted 1.2-shifts of both bromine atoms. A conformation analysis revealed that under kinetic control, only those bromine atoms in the more flexible part of the molecules are migrating, whereas those in the conserved triple-turn motive were not affected. Thus, this structural motive, common to all alpha-, beta-, and gamma-HBCDs, is more rigid and less reactive than the flexible part, containing the reacting dibromides in like-configurations.     

Interactions between chromium and sulfur metabolism in Brassica juncea

The effects of chromate on sulfate uptake and assimilation were investigated in the accumulator Brassica juncea (L.) Czern. Seven-day-old plants were grown for 2 d under the following combination of sulfate and chromate concentration: (i) no sulfate and no chromate (-S), (ii) no sulfate and 0.2 mmol L(-1) chromate (-S +Cr), (iii) 1 mmol L(-1) sulfate and no chromate (+S), or (iv) 1 mmol L(-1) sulfate and 0.2 mmol L(-1) chromate (+S +Cr). Despite the toxic effects exerted by chromate as indicated by altered level of reducing sugars and proteins in leaves, the growth of B. juncea was only weakly reduced by chromate, and no variation in chlorophyll a and b was measured, regardless of S availability. Chromium (Cr) was stored more in roots than in leaves, and the maximum Cr accumulation was measured in -S +Cr plants. The significant decrease of the sulfate uptake rates observed in Cr-treated plants was accompanied by a repression of the root low-affinity sulfate transporter (BjST1), suggesting that the transport of chromate in B. juncea may involve sulfate carriers. Once absorbed, chromate induced genes involved in sulfate assimilation (ATP-sulfurylase: atps6; APS-reductase: apsr2; Glutathione synthethase: gsh2) and accumulation of cysteine and glutathione, which may suggest that these reduced S compounds play a role in Cr tolerance. Together, our findings indicate that when phytoremediation technologies are used to recover Cr-contaminated areas, the concentration of sulfate in the plant growth medium must be considered because it may influence the ability of plants to accumulate and tolerate Cr.     

A new method to quantify the impact of soil carbon management on biophysical soil properties: the example of two apple orchard systems in New Zealand

A new method to diagnose the environmental sustainability of specific orchard management practices was derived and tested. As a significant factor for soil quality, the soil carbon (C) management in the topsoil of the tree-row of an integrated and organic apple orchard was selected and compared. Soil C management was defined as land management practices that maintain or increase soil C. We analyzed the impact of the soil C management on biological (microbial biomass C, basal respiration, dehydrogenase activity, respiratory quotient) and physical (aggregate stability, amount of plant-available water, conductive mean pore diameter near water saturation) soil properties. Soil in the alley acted as a reference for the managed soil in the tree row. The total and hot-water-extractable C amounts served as a combined proxy for the soil C management. The soil C management accounted for 0 to 81% of the degradation or enhancement of biophysical soil properties in the integrated and organic system. In the integrated system, soil C management led to a loss of C in the top 0.3 m of the tree row within 12 yr, causing a decrease in microbial activities. In the tree row of the organic orchard, C loss occurred in the top 0.1 m, and the decrease in microbial activities was small or not significant. Regarding physical soil properties, the C loss in the integrated system led to a decrease of the aggregate stability, whereas it increased in the organic system. Generally, the impact of soil C management was better correlated with soil microbial than with the physical properties. With respect to environmental soil functions that are sensitive to the decrease in microbial activity or aggregate stability, soil C management was sustainable in the organic system but not in the integrated system.