Review of Mathematical Programming Applications in Water Resource Management Under Uncertainty

Economic development, variation in weather patterns and natural disasters focus attention on the management of water resources. This paper reviews the literature on the development of mathematical programming models for water resource management under uncertainty between 2010 and 2017. A systematic search of the academic literature identified 448 journal articles on water resource management for examination. Bibliometric analysis is employed to investigate the methods that researchers are currently using to address this problem and to identify recent trends in research in the area. The research reveals that stochastic dynamic programming and multistage stochastic programming are the methods most commonly applied. Water resource allocation, climate change, water quality and agricultural irrigation are amongst the most frequently discussed topics in the literature. A more detailed examination of the literature on each of these topics is included. The findings suggest that there is a need for mathematical programming models of large-scale water systems that deal with uncertainty and multiobjectives in an effective and computationally efficient way.     

Using a common commensal bacterium in endangered Takahe as a model to explore pathogen dynamics in isolated wildlife populations

Predicting and preventing outbreaks of infectious disease in endangered wildlife is problematic without an understanding of the biotic and abiotic factors that influence pathogen transmission and the genetic variation of microorganisms within and between these highly modified host communities. We used a common commensal bacterium, Campylobacter spp., in endangered Takahe (Porphyrio hochstetteri) populations to develop a model with which to study pathogen dynamics in isolated wildlife populations connected through ongoing translocations. Takahe are endemic to New Zealand, where their total population is approximately 230 individuals. Takahe were translocated from a single remnant wild population to multiple offshore and mainland reserves. Several fragmented subpopulations are maintained and connected through regular translocations. We tested 118 Takahe from 8 locations for fecal Campylobacter spp. via culture and DNA extraction and used PCR for species assignment. Factors relating to population connectivity and host life history were explored using multivariate analytical methods to determine associations between host variables and bacterial prevalence. The apparent prevalence of Campylobacter spp. in Takahe was 99%, one of the highest reported in avian populations. Variation in prevalence was evident among Campylobacter species identified. C. sp. nova 1 (90%) colonized the majority of Takahe tested. Prevalence of C. jejuni (38%) and C. coli (24%) was different between Takahe subpopulations, and this difference was associated with factors related to population management, captivity, rearing environment, and the presence of agricultural practices in the location in which birds were sampled. Modeling results of Campylobacter spp. in Takahe metapopulations suggest that anthropogenic management of endangered species within altered environments may have unforeseen effects on microbial exposure, carriage, and disease risk. Translocation of wildlife between locations could have unpredictable consequences including the spread of novel microbes between isolated populations.     

Size and structure of a photographically identified population of manta rays <Emphasis Type=Italic>Manta alfredi</Emphasis> in southern Mozambique

The size and structure of a photographically identified population of reef manta ray, Manta alfredi, were examined at aggregation sites over a four-year period in southern Mozambique. The use and standardisation of photo-ID techniques was examined as a minimally-intrusive means to study this species. Using these techniques, we report on the size, structure and seasonality of this population of M. alfredi. In total, 449 individuals were identified during this time period, 40.5% of which were re-sighted on at least one occasion. The longest period between re-sighting events was 1,252 days. During the study period, annual population size estimates for M. alfredi ranged from 149 to 454 individuals. The superpopulation size estimate for the entire study period was 802 individuals, the first reported for M. alfredi at a monitored aggregation site. A highly significant sex bias was evident with a female:male ratio of 3.55:1. The majority of rays (89.9% males; 49.7% females) were considered mature, with most individuals between 3.0 and 4.9 m in disc width. Manta alfredi were observed at the study sites in each month of the calendar year. The maximum number of individual rays seen per dive was 30. Large numbers of rays (20 + per dive) were seen in the months of November, December and January, which coincide with the breeding season. Natural markings were unique to individuals and did not change substantially with time, which provided further support for their use in the identification of individual M. alfredi over multiple years. Multiple re-sightings of individual M. alfredi suggest that many individuals in this population exhibit site fidelity to the examined aggregation sites. As target subsistence fishing for M. alfredi exists along the Mozambican coastline, management efforts to monitor and prevent overexploitation at these critical habitats should be a priority.     

Reproductive Success Increases with Local Density of Conspecif ics in a Desert Mustard (Lesquerella fendleri)

We investigated the effects of plant density on reproduction for an insect-pollinated desert mustard (Lesquerella fendleri [Brassicaceae]). Individual reproductive success, as measured by seeds per fruit, proportion of flowers setting fruit, and total seed production, increased with the density of conspecifics within 1 m. However, including the density of conspecifics at greater distances (1–3 m) did not significantly increase the amount of variation in reproductive success explained by the regression model. This implies that processes occurring on a scale of 1 m or less have important effects on reproduction. Total seed production also was greater for high-density plants than for otherwise similar plants with a low-density of conspecifics. We argue that increased pollinator visitation is the most likely cause of this facilitation and that investigations of the effects of rarity on reproductive success should directly consider density along with more commonly used attributes such as population size and fragmentation.     

Application of the ERICA Integrated Approach to the Drigg coastal sand dunes

The EC-funded project 'Environmental Risks from Ionising Contaminants: Assessment and Management' (ERICA) developed an 'Integrated Approach' for assessing the impact of ionising radiation on ecosystems. This paper presents the application of the ERICA Integrated Approach, supported by a software programme (the ERICA Tool) and guidance documentation, to an assessment of the Drigg coastal sand dunes (Cumbria, UK). Targeted sampling provided site-specific data for sand dune biota, including amphibians and reptiles. Radionuclides reported included (90)Sr, (99)Tc, (137)Cs, (238)Pu, (239+240)Pu and (241)Am. Site-specific data were compared to predictions derived using the ERICA Tool. Some under- and over-predictions of biota activity concentrations were identified but can be explained by the specific ecological characteristics and contamination mechanism of the dunes. Overall, the results indicated no significant impact of ionising radiation on the sand dune biota and the Integrated Approach was found to be a flexible and effective means of conducting a radiation impact assessment.