Risk analysis of the 1970 san antonio diphtheria epidemic*

Prediction of disease patterns for communicable diseases with low prevalence rates is difficult because of the random variations inherent in the data Smoothing of prevalence or incidence data prior to the analysis may facilitate these predictions. All of the analyses are based on census tract characterisiics. The disadvantages of this type of data are that the boundaries are arbitraty and lead to some heterogenous tracts. Also, the analyses depend totally on aggregate rather than individual data. The advantage of working with this type of data is its availability for all metropolitan areas. The San Antonio diphtheria epidemic has been previously referred to as an ethnic epidemic. This paper shows that it is even more an epidemic of lower socioeconomic groups. In this region of the country, socioeconomic characteristics are almost indistinguishable.     

Water and wastewater eco-efficiency indicators for the sugar cane industry

The consumption of large volumes of water and the generation of organic compounds as liquid effluents are major environmental problems in sugar cane processing industry. The volume of freshwater required by this industry can be significantly reduced by recovering the intrinsic water present in sugar cane. This amount of freshwater will depend on the process technology. Three new indices for sugar cane plants are introduced in this work: WIN, which indicates the efficiency of water use, and EIN1 and EIN2, which quantify Chemical Oxygen Demand of wastewater. Selected case studies illustrate the advantages of employing these indices as guides for the selection among process design alternatives that account for environmental performance.     

Distribution of contaminant trace metals inadvertently provided by phosphorus fertilisers: movement,chemical fractions and mass balances in contrasting acidic soils

The frequent use of phosphorus (P) fertilisers accompanied by nitrogen and potassium sources may lead to a serious long-term environmental issue because of the presence of potentially hazardous trace metals (TM) in P fertilisers and unknown effects on the TM chemical fractions in agricultural soils. A 16-month-long column experiment was conducted to investigate the mobility and chemical forms of Cd, Cu, Cr, Ni, and Zn introduced into a Mollisol and an Andisol through surface incorporation (0–2 cm) of triple superphosphate (TSP) fertiliser. The effects of urea and potassium chloride (KCl) applications were investigated as well. After 15 cycles of 300-mm irrigation, TSP addition increased the 4 M HNO₃ extractable TM concentration in the upper (0–5 cm) section of soils. Beyond this depth, metals showed no significant mobility, with minimal leaching losses (<?1.9%, 25-cm depth). The TM chemical forms in the 0–5 cm section were significantly (p?<?0.01) affected by the soil type and fertilisers addition. Cadmium, Ni, and Zn were the elements which appeared in a larger proportion (up to 30%) in the most labile fraction (KNO₃ extractable) in fertilised soils. The impact of urea depended on the nitrification-related changes in soil pH, while fertilisation with KCl tended to increase the KNO₃ fraction of most metals probably due to K⁺ exchange reactions. Chromium remained minimally affected by the urea and KCl applications since this contaminant is strongly bound to the less labile solid phases. The low mobility of TM was governed mainly by their interaction with the solid phases rather than by their speciation at soil pH. The mass balance showed that the geochemical processes underwent in time by the P fertiliser increased the amount of TM extracted by the chemical fractionation scheme, therefore the reaction period of TSP with soil particles should be taken into account for evaluating TM availability. Long-term soil fertilisation could inadvertently contribute to an increased concentration and availability of these P fertilisers-born contaminants in the cultivated layer of acidic soils.     

Chihuahuan Desert kangaroo rats: nonlinear effects of population dynamics, competition, and rainfall

Using long-term data on two kangaroo rats in the Chihuahuan Desert of North America, we fitted logistic models including the exogenous effects of seasonal rainfall patterns. Our aim was to test the effects of intraspecific interactions and seasonal rainfall in explaining and predicting the numerical fluctuations of these two kangaroo rats. We found that logistic models fit both data sets quite well; Dipodomys merriami showed lower maximum per capita growth rates than Dipodomys ordii, and in both cases logistic models were nonlinear. Summer rainfall appears to be the most important exogenous effect for both rodent populations; models including this variable were able to predict independent data better than models including winter rainfall. D. merriami was also negatively affected by another kangaroo rat (Dipodomys spectabilis), consistent with previous experimental evidence. We hypothesized that summer rainfall influences the carrying capacity of the environment by affecting seed availability and the intensity of intraspecific competition.     

Detecting the order of population dynamics from time series: nonlinearity causes spurious diagnosis

Partial autocorrelation and partial rate correlation functions are frequently used to detect the order of the endogenous process generating an observed population time series. Here we uncover a problem with this approach: the diagnosis of spurious second order autocorrelation due to strong nonlinearity in a first order endogenous process, as exemplified by time series data from a population of Soay sheep. Causes and a possible solution are discussed.     

Sustainability of wild plant use in the Andean Community of South America

Overexploitation is the second biggest driver of global plant extinction. Meanwhile, useful plant species are vital to livelihoods across the world, with global conservation efforts increasingly applying the concept of ‘conservation-through-use.’ However, successfully balancing conservation and biodiversity use remains challenging. We reviewed literature on the sustainability of wild-collected plant use across the countries of Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, and Bolivia—a region of global importance for its biological and cultural richness. After applying defined search terms and a two-stage screening process, 68 articles were reviewed. The numbers which reported sustainable, unsustainable, or context-dependent outcomes were relatively even, but national differences emerged. Through narrative synthesis, we identified five key, reoccurring themes: plant biology; land tenure; knowledge, resource, and capacity; economics and market pressures; and institutional structures, policy, and legislation. Our results show the need for flexible, context-specific approaches and the importance of collaboration, with bottom-up management and conservation methods involving local communities and traditional ecological knowledge often proving most effective. Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01529-7.     

Importance of natural sedimentation in the fate of microcystins

Sedimentation processes of microcystins (MCs), cyanobacterial toxins, were studied in three reservoirs located in Central Spain in which the cyanobacterial community was dominated by the genus Microcystis. MCs were detected in the sediment traps deployed in all reservoirs. In Santillana reservoir, MCs were identified in sediment traps even though they could not be found in the pelagial samples. In the other reservoirs studied, sedimentation rates for MC-containing particles during the bloom period ranged from 0.43 to 2.53 mg m⁻² d⁻¹. Interestingly, this very high sedimentation of toxic biomass is not exclusively related to decaying blooms or autumnal sedimentation due to a drop in water temperature. Instead, it seems that MC-containing colonies may be settling constantly during the bloom period and we were able to estimate that during such a Microcystis dominated bloom, around 4.5% of pelagial MCs may be involved in sedimentation. Further, these settling colonies seem to maintain good cell integrity and MCs seem not to be excreted massively. A certain loss of toxin content along the vertical settling may be attributed to minor losses due to cell lysis or to variations in MC cell quota explained by reduced production or internal consumption. Our results for the first time establish specific settling rates for MC-containing particles in freshwaters and definitely identify sedimentation as a major destination for these toxins. These data may contribute to improve managing strategies concerning risks associated with MCs.     

Estimating the importance of natural and anthropogenic sources on N and P emission to estuaries along the Ceará State Coast NE Brazil

The Northeastern semi-arid Brazilian region is experiencing rapid social and economic development based on improving water management and even in areas of low human occupation, anthropogenic emissions of N and P surpass natural emissions in at least one order of magnitude and these additional loads can alter the water quality of the receiving estuaries. This study estimates, using an emission factor approach, the annual emissions of N and P from natural processes and anthropogenic sources for estuaries along the Ceará State, NE Brazil. Emission factors from natural sources are one to two orders of magnitude lower than those for anthropogenic sources. Among the anthropogenic activities, the aquaculture is responsible for most N emission (0.52 t km⁻² year⁻¹) followed by waste water and husbandry. For P, the largest average emission factors are from husbandry (0.30 t km⁻² year⁻¹), waste water and agriculture.     

The Flood Pulse as the Underlying Driver of Vegetation in the Largest Wetland and Fishery of the Mekong Basin

The Tonle Sap is the largest wetland in Southeast Asia and one of the world’s most productive inland fisheries. The Mekong River inundates the Tonle Sap every year, shaping a mosaic of natural and agricultural habitats. Ongoing hydropower development, however, will dampen the flood pulse that maintains the Tonle Sap. This study established the current underlying relationship among hydrology, vegetation, and human use. We found that vegetation is strongly influenced by flood duration; however, this relationship was heavily distorted by fire, grazing, and rice cultivation. The expected flood pulse alteration will result in higher water levels during the dry season, permanently inundating existing forests. The reduction of the maximum flood extent will facilitate agricultural expansion into natural habitats. This study is the most comprehensive field survey of the Tonle Sap to date, and it provides fundamental knowledge needed to understand the underlying processes that maintain this important wetland.