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61.
PURPOSE: The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) proposed guidelines for highway design to increase the safe driving ability of older drivers; however, little empirical evidence exists to support the effectiveness of these guidelines. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of implementing these guidelines (in 4 pairs of intersections) on safe driving performance of older and younger drivers using a high-fidelity driving simulator. DESIGN AND METHODS: We replicated four intersection pairs (improved versus unimproved) in a high-fidelity, virtual reality driving simulator. Simulator scenarios were created from actual road locations, replicating road geometrics and traffic control devices. The simulator's controls were integrated with an actual vehicle to make the driving experience as realistic as possible. Kinematic measures were obtained from the simulator in conjunction with driving errors recorded by trained driving evaluators sitting in the cab of the car. Thirty-nine subjects, 19 younger and 20 older adults, participated in the study. RESULTS: For the kinematic data we found greater lateral control, as indicated by significantly smaller maximum yaw during the turn phase, at all of the improved intersections when compared to the unimproved intersections. We found some significant age differences, but mostly in only one of the intersection-pairs. For the behavioral data, there were significant differences in driving errors between improved and unimproved intersections in two intersection-pairs; however, there were no significant differences in driving errors between the older and younger drivers. IMPLICATIONS: The findings suggest that both young and older drivers may benefit from roadways with safety features recommended by the FHWA guidelines as indicated by the increased lateral control of the vehicle when negotiating these intersections. These findings generate critical information for those involved in the design of roadway systems.  相似文献   
62.
OBJECTIVE: To test the effectiveness of the FHWA guidelines for intersection design. METHODS: In an experimental design we used kinematics measures from an instrumented vehicle and behavioral (error) data collected during on-road evaluations to quantify the effects of improved versus unimproved intersections (turn phase) and to determine if these intersections were safer (vehicular stability and driver confidence) for both older (65-85 years) and younger (25 -45) drivers. We analyzed kinematics data with a 2 x 2 repeated measures ANOVA and behavioral data (driving errors yes, no) with Wilcoxon sign rank test (within subject variable: intersection improved vs. unimproved) and Wilcoxon rank sum test (between subject variable: age, younger vs. older driver). RESULTS: Kinematics measures (turn phase), showed three maneuvers had statistically significantly lesser side forces (measured by lateral acceleration and combined acceleration) for the improved conditions, and four maneuvers had statistically significantly greater, yet appropriate, speeds for the improved conditions. Lesser side forces indicated improved lateral stability and increased speed indicated greater confidence. Drivers made fewer errors on two of the improved intersections; but across all maneuvers, older drivers appeared to make fewer errors on the improved intersections. CONCLUSIONS: This study brings empirical intersection design and safety information for engineers and city planners to consider as they plan and develop intersections. Future researchers may want to use the conceptual and analytical framework of this study to determine the effectiveness of other FHWA guidelines. Given that these intersection design guidelines benefit younger and older drivers alike, plausible policy-making opportunities are opened in the design of safe roadway systems, to benefit the broad spectrum of adult drivers.  相似文献   
63.
This study analyzed the occurrence of Escherichia coli in a mixed land-use watershed with human, cattle, and wildlife fecal inputs located in a karstic geologic region using synoptic monitoring (samples taken throughout the watershed system) during base-flow conditions. The objective of the study was to evaluate the occurrence of E. coli during base-flow conditions for several months at seven different main channel and nine different tributary sampling sites in the Stock Creek watershed, a 49.3-km(2) basin located in Knoxville, TN. Escherichia coli densities were measured using the Colilert (Defined Substrate Technology) method. The instantaneous loads for E. coli were determined from measured flow rates and E. coli densities, with the highest loading rates observed in the late fall. The study indicated a strong correlation between E. coli load rate (colony-forming units [CFU]/d), 7-d antecedent precipitation, and turbidity. Water quality data, however, also exhibited a spatial dependency; for example, the E. coli load rate was better correlated with turbidity in the slower draining basin tailwater sampling sites than in the faster draining upstream headwater sampling sites. In the headwater sites, the E. coli load rate was better correlated with 7-d antecedent precipitation than turbidity.  相似文献   
64.
Despite best efforts at controlling nanoparticle (NP) surface chemistries, the environment surrounding nanomaterials is always changing and can impart a permanent chemical memory. We present a set of preparation and measurement methods to be used as the foundation for studying the surface chemical memory of engineered NP aggregates. We attempt to bridge the gap between controlled lab studies and real-world NP samples, specifically TiO(2), by using well-characterized and consistently synthesized NPs, controllably producing NP aggregates with precision drop-on-demand inkjet printing for subsequent chemical measurements, monitoring the physical morphology of the NP aggregate depositions with scanning electron microscopy (SEM), acquiring "surface-to-bulk" mass spectra of the NP aggregate surfaces with time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectrometry (ToF-SIMS), and developing a data analysis scheme to interpret chemical signatures more accurately from thousands of data files. We present differences in mass spectral peak ratios for bare TiO(2) NPs compared to NPs mixed separately with natural organic matter (NOM) or pond water. The results suggest that subtle changes in the local environment can alter the surface chemistry of TiO(2) NPs, as monitored by Ti(+)/TiO(+) and Ti(+)/C(3)H(5)(+) peak ratios. The subtle changes in the absolute surface chemistry of NP aggregates vs. that of the subsurface are explored. It is envisioned that the methods developed herein can be adapted for monitoring the surface chemistries of a variety of engineered NPs obtained from diverse natural environments.  相似文献   
65.
Testing the Accuracy of Population Viability Analysis   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3  
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66.
Abstract

Air quality data collected in the California Regional PM10/PM2.5 Air Quality Study (CRPAQS) are analyzed to qualitatively assess the processes affecting secondary aerosol formation in the San Joaquin Valley (SJV). This region experiences some of the highest fine particulate matter (PM2.5) mass concentrations in California (≤188 μg/m3 24-hr average), and secondary aerosol components (as a group) frequently constitute over half of the fine aerosol mass in winter. The analyses are based on 15 days of high-frequency filter and canister measurements and several months of wintertime continuous gas and aerosol measurements. The phase-partitioning of nitrogen oxide (NOx)-related nitrogen species and carbonaceous species shows that concentrations of gaseous precursor species are far more abundant than measured secondary aerosol nitrate or estimated secondary organic aerosols. Comparisons of ammonia and nitric acid concentrations indicate that ammonium nitrate formation is limited by the availability of nitric acid rather than ammonia. Time-resolved aerosol nitrate data collected at the surface and on a 90-m tower suggest that both the daytime and nighttime nitric acid formation pathways are active, and entrainment of aerosol nitrate formed aloft at night may explain the spatial homogeneity of nitrate in the SJV. NOx and volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions plus background O3 levels are expected to determine NOx oxidation and nitric acid production rates, which currently control the ammonium nitrate levels in the SJV. Secondary organic aerosol formation is significant in winter, especially in the Fresno urban area. Formation of secondary organic aerosol is more likely limited by the rate of VOC oxidation than the availability of VOC precursors in winter.  相似文献   
67.
Near-roadway ambient black carbon (BC) and carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations were measured at two schools adjacent to a freeway and at an urban background school 2 km from the freeway to determine the change in concentrations attributable to vehicle emissions after the three-lane expansion of U.S. Highway 95 (US 95) in Las Vegas, Nevada. Between summer 2007 and summer 2008, average weekday small-vehicle volume increased by 40% ± 2% (standard error). Average weekday large-vehicle volume decreased by 17% ± 5%, due to a downturn in the economy and an associated decline in goods movement. Average vehicle speed increased from 58 to 69 mph, a 16% ± 1% increase. The authors compared BC and CO concentrations in summer 2007 with those in summer 2008 to understand what effect the expansion of the freeway may have had on ambient concentrations: BC and CO were measured 17 m north of the freeway sound wall, CO was measured 20 m south of the sound wall, and BC was measured at an urban background site 2 km south of the freeway. Between summer 2007 and summer 2008, median BC decreased at the near-road site by 40% ± 2% and also decreased at the urban background site by 24% ± 4%, suggesting that much of the change was due to decreases in emissions throughout Las Vegas, rather than only on US 95. CO concentrations decreased by 14% ± 2% and 10% ± 3% at the two near-road sites. The decrease in BC concentrations after the expansion is likely due to the decrease in medium- and heavy-duty-vehicle traffic resulting from the economic recession. The decrease in CO concentrations may be a result of improved traffic flow, despite the increase in light-duty-vehicle traffic.
ImplicationsMonitoring of BC and CO at near-road locations in Las Vegas demonstrated the impacts of changes in traffic volume and vehicle speed on near-road concentrations. However, urban-scale declines in concentrations were larger than near-road changes due to the impacts of the economic recession that occurred contemporaneously with the freeway expansion.  相似文献   
68.
Conserving biodiversity and combating ecological hazards require cost-effective allocation of limited resources among potential management projects. Project priorities, however, can change over time as underlying social-ecological systems progress, novel priorities emerge, and management capabilities evolve. Thus, reallocation of ongoing investments in response to shifting priorities could improve management outcomes and address urgent demands, especially when additional funding is not available immediately. Resource reallocation, however, could incur transaction costs, require additional monitoring and reassessment, and be constrained by ongoing project commitments. Such complexities may prevent managers from considering potentially beneficial reallocation strategies, reducing long-term effectiveness. We propose an iterative project prioritization approach, based on marginal return-on-investment estimation and portfolio optimization, that guides resource reallocation among ongoing and new projects. Using simulation experiments in 2 case studies, we explored how this approach can improve efficacy under varying reallocation constraints, frequencies, costs, and rates of project portfolio change. Periodic budget reallocation could enhance the management of stochastically emerging invasive weeds in Australia and thus reduce the overall risk by up to 50% compared with a static budget. Reallocation frequency and the rate of new weed incursion synergistically increased the conservation gains achieved by allowing unconstrained reallocation. Conversely, budget reallocation would not improve the International Union for Conservation of Nature conservation status of threatened Australian birds due to slow rates of transition among conservation states; extinction risk could increase if portfolio reassessment is costly. Although other project prioritization studies may recommend periodic reassessment and reallocation, our findings revealed conditions when reallocation is valuable and demonstrated a structured approach that can help conservation agencies schedule and implement iterative budget-allocation decisions cost-effectively.  相似文献   
69.
This paper analyses the role of institutions in the management of common pool resources (CPRs) in semi-arid Tanzania. Common property regimes have often been considered inadequate for the management of CPRs because of the problems of excludability, but they are becoming more widely supported as the way forward to overcome the problems of resource use and degradation in developing countries. A series of design principles for long enduring common property institutions have been proposed by Ostrom, but there is concern that they are not applicable to a wide range of real life situations or that they may be specific to certain types of CPR. Here, we compare these principles to the situation prevailing in 12 villages in six districts in semi-arid Tanzania. Data on management institutions were collected through semi-structured interviews and meetings at district and village level. The combined information was used to make a qualitative assessment of the strength with which each design principle appeared to operate in the management of forest, pasture and water resources. Boundaries, conflict and negotiation in CPR management are of key importance in semi-arid regions. However, the need for flexibility in order to deal with ecological uncertainty means that many management institutions would be considered weak or absent according to the design principle approach. This supports the view that the design principles should not be used as a 'blueprint to be imposed on resource management regimes' rather that they provide a framework for investigating common property regimes with the proviso that, certainly for semi-arid regions, they may highlight where management cannot be explained by institutional theory alone.  相似文献   
70.
Fire is used as a management tool for biodiversity conservation worldwide. A common objective is to avoid population extinctions due to inappropriate fire regimes. However, in many ecosystems, it is unclear what mix of fire histories will achieve this goal. We determined the optimal fire history of a given area for biological conservation with a method that links tools from 3 fields of research: species distribution modeling, composite indices of biodiversity, and decision science. We based our case study on extensive field surveys of birds, reptiles, and mammals in fire‐prone semi‐arid Australia. First, we developed statistical models of species’ responses to fire history. Second, we determined the optimal allocation of successional states in a given area, based on the geometric mean of species relative abundance. Finally, we showed how conservation targets based on this index can be incorporated into a decision‐making framework for fire management. Pyrodiversity per se did not necessarily promote vertebrate biodiversity. Maximizing pyrodiversity by having an even allocation of successional states did not maximize the geometric mean abundance of bird species. Older vegetation was disproportionately important for the conservation of birds, reptiles, and small mammals. Because our method defines fire management objectives based on the habitat requirements of multiple species in the community, it could be used widely to maximize biodiversity in fire‐prone ecosystems. Historiales de Incendios Óptimos para la Conservación de la Biodiversidad  相似文献   
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