Accelerating Adaptation of Natural Resource Management to Address Climate Change

Natural resource managers are seeking tools to help them address current and future effects of climate change. We present a model for collaborative planning aimed at identifying ways to adapt management actions to address the effects of climate change in landscapes that cross public and private jurisdictional boundaries. The Southwest Climate Change Initiative (SWCCI) piloted the Adaptation for Conservation Targets (ACT) planning approach at workshops in 4 southwestern U.S. landscapes. This planning approach successfully increased participants’ self‐reported capacity to address climate change by providing them with a better understanding of potential effects and guiding the identification of solutions. The workshops fostered cross‐jurisdictional and multidisciplinary dialogue on climate change through active participation of scientists and managers in assessing climate change effects, discussing the implications of those effects for determining management goals and activities, and cultivating opportunities for regional coordination on adaptation of management plans. Facilitated application of the ACT framework advanced group discussions beyond assessing effects to devising options to mitigate the effects of climate change on specific species, ecological functions, and ecosystems. Participants addressed uncertainty about future conditions by considering more than one climate‐change scenario. They outlined opportunities and identified next steps for implementing several actions, and local partnerships have begun implementing actions and conducting additional planning. Continued investment in adaptation of management plans and actions to address the effects of climate change in the southwestern United States and extension of the approaches used in this project to additional landscapes are needed if biological diversity and ecosystem services are to be maintained in a rapidly changing world. Acelerando la Adaptación del Manejo de Recursos Naturales para Atender el Cambio Climático     

Efficacy of Bacteroides measurements for reducing the statistical uncertainty associated with hydrologic flow and fecal loads in a mixed use watershed

This paper presents an analysis of the occurrence and uncertainty of source-specific Bacteroides and Escherichia coli in a stream in a mixed land-use watershed with human, cattle, and wildlife fecal inputs located in a karstic geologic region during baseflow conditions. The objectives of the study were to evaluate the occurrence, hydrologic significance, and source of fecal mass in the stream using assays for total Bacteroides (AllBac) and bovine-specific Bacteroides (BoBac), and then to compare these measurements with E. coli densities and loads. Samples were collected during baseflow conditions over several months at seven different main channel sites in the Stock Creek watershed, a 49.3 km2 basin located in Knoxville, TN (USA). We determined instantaneous loads for total fecal loads, bovine fecal loads, and E. coli from measured flow rates and the representative Bacteroides fecal masses and/or E. coli densities. The study indicated a strong correlation between total fecal load (kg d(-1)), bovine fecal load (kg d(-1)), E. coli load rate (CFU d(-1)), 7-d antecedent precipitation, and turbidity. The various datasets were used to establish parameter correlations and spatial dependencies throughout the watershed. The data analysis demonstrated two prevalent patterns throughout the watershed: (i) a runoff-dominated transport and occurrence; and (ii) potential groundwater-dominated transport and occurrence.     

Info-Gap Decision Theory for Assessing the Management of Catchments for Timber Production and Urban Water Supply

While previous studies have examined how forest management is influenced by the risk of fire, they rely on probabilistic estimates of the occurrence and impacts of fire. However, nonprobabilistic approaches are required for assessing the importance of fire risk when data are poor but risks are appreciable. We explore impacts of fire risk on forest management using as a case study a water catchment in the Australian Capital Territory (ACT) (southeastern Australia). In this forested area, urban water supply and timber yields from exotic plantations are potential joint but also competing land uses. Our analyses were stimulated by extensive wildfires in early 2003 that burned much of the existing exotic pine plantation estate in the water catchment and the resulting need to explore the relative economic benefits of revegetating the catchment with exotic plantations or native vegetation. The current mean fire interval in the ACT is approximately 40 years, making the establishment of a pine plantation economically marginal at a 4% discount rate. However, the relative impact on water yield of revegetation with native species and pines is very uncertain, as is the risk of fire under climate change. We use info-gap decision theory to account for these nonprobabilistic sources of uncertainty, demonstrating that the decision that is most robust to uncertainty is highly sensitive to the cost of native revegetation. If costs of native revegetation are sufficiently small, this option is more robust to uncertainty than revegetation with a commercial pine plantation.     

Progressive nitrogen limitation of ecosystem processes under elevated CO2 in a warm-temperate forest

A hypothesis for progressive nitrogen limitation (PNL) proposes that net primary production (NPP) will decline through time in ecosystems subjected to a step-function increase in atmospheric CO2. The primary mechanism driving this response is a rapid rate of N immobilization by plants and microbes under elevated CO2 that depletes soils of N, causing slower rates of N mineralization. Under this hypothesis, there is little long-term stimulation of NPP by elevated CO2 in the absence of exogenous inputs of N. We tested this hypothesis using data on the pools and fluxes of C and N in tree biomass, microbes, and soils from 1997 through 2002 collected at the Duke Forest free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) experiment. Elevated CO2 stimulated NPP by 18-24% during the first six years of this experiment. Consistent with the hypothesis for PNL, significantly more N was immobilized in tree biomass and in the O horizon under elevated CO2. In contrast to the PNL hypothesis, microbial-N immobilization did not increase under elevated CO2, and although the rate of net N mineralization declined through time, the decline was not significantly more rapid under elevated CO2. Ecosystem C-to-N ratios widened more rapidly under elevated CO2 than ambient CO2 indicating a more rapid rate of C fixation per unit of N, a processes that could delay PNL in this ecosystem. Mass balance calculations demonstrated a large accrual of ecosystem N capital. Is PNL occurring in this ecosystem and will NPP decline to levels under ambient CO2? The answer depends on the relative strength of tree biomass and O-horizon N immobilization vs. widening C-to-N ratios and ecosystem-N accrual as processes that drive and delay PNL, respectively. Only direct observations through time will definitively answer this question.     

Background concentrations of 18 air toxics for North America

The U.S. Clean Air Act identifies 188 hazardous air pollutants (HAPs), or "air toxics," associated with adverse human health effects. Of these air toxics, 18 were targeted as the most important in a 10-City Pilot Study conducted in 2001 and 2002 as part of the National Air Toxics Trend Sites Program. In the present analysis, measurements available from monitoring networks in North America were used to estimate boundary layer background concentrations and trends of these 18 HAPs. The background concentrations reported in this study are as much as 85% lower than those reported in recent studies of HAP concentrations. Background concentrations of some volatile organic compounds were analyzed for trends at the 95% confidence level; only carbon tetrachloride (CCI4) and tetrachloroethylene decreased significantly in recent years. Remote background concentrations were compared with the one-in-a-million (i.e., 10(6)) cancer benchmarks to determine the possible causes of health risk in rural and remote areas; benzene, chloroform, formaldehyde, and chromium (Cr) fine particulate were higher than cancer benchmark values. In addition, remote background concentrations were found to contribute between 5% and 99% of median urban concentrations.     

Wintertime vertical variations in particulate matter (PM) and precursor concentrations in the San Joaquin Valley during the California Regional Coarse PM/Fine PM Air Quality Study

Air quality monitoring was conducted at a rural site with a tower in the middle of California's San Joaquin Valley (SJV) and at elevated sites in the foothills and mountains surrounding the SJV for the California Regional PM10/ PM2.5 Air Quality Study. Measurements at the surface and n a tower at 90 m were collected in Angiola, CA, from December 2000 through February 2001 and included hourly black carbon (BC), particle counts from optical particle counters, nitric oxide, ozone, temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and direction. Boundary site measurements were made primarily using 24-hr integrated particulate matter (PM) samples. These measurements were used to understand the vertical variations of PM and PM precursors, the effect of stratification in the winter on concentrations and chemistry aloft and at the surface, and the impact of aloft-versus-surface transport on PM concentrations. Vertical variations of concentrations differed among individual species. The stratification may be important to atmospheric chemistry processes, particularly nighttime nitrate formation aloft, because NO2 appeared to be oxidized by ozone in the stratified aloft layer. Additionally, increases in accumulation-mode particle concentrations in the aloft layer during a fine PM (PM2.5) episode corresponded with increases in aloft nitrate, demonstrating the likelihood of an aloft nighttime nitrate formation mechanism. Evidence of local transport at the surface and regional transport aloft was found; transport processes also varied among the species. The distribution of BC appeared to be regional, and BC was often uniformly mixed vertically. Overall, the combination of time-resolved tower and surface measurements provided important insight into PM stratification, formation, and transport.