Projecting current and potential future distribution of the Fire-bellied toad Bombina bombina under climate change in north-eastern Germany

Environmental change is likely to have a strong impact on biodiversity, and many species may shift their distribution in response. In this study, we aimed at projecting the availability of suitable habitat for an endangered amphibian species, the Fire-bellied toad Bombina bombina, in Brandenburg (north-eastern Germany). We modelled a potential habitat distribution map based on (1) a database with 10,581 presence records for Bombina from the years 1990 to 2009, (2) current estimates for ecogeographical variables (EGVs) and (3) the future projection of these EGVs according to the statistical regional model, respectively, the soil and water integrated model, applying the maximum entropy approach (Maxent). By comparing current and potential future distributions, we evaluated the projected change in distribution of suitable habitats and identified the environmental variables most associated with habitat suitability that turned out to be climatic variables related to the hydrological cycle. Under the applied scenario, our results indicate increasing habitat suitability in many areas and an extended range of suitable habitats. However, even if the environmental conditions in Brandenburg may change as predicted, it is questionable whether the Fire-bellied toad will truly benefit, as dispersal abilities of amphibian species are limited and strongly influenced by anthropogenic disturbances, that is, intensive agriculture, habitat destruction and fragmentation. Furthermore, agronomic pressure is likely to increase on productive areas with fertile soils and high water retention capacities, indeed those areas suitable for B. bombina. All these changes may affect temporary pond hydrology as well as the reproductive success and breeding phenology of toads.     

Is the degrowth debate relevant to China?

In industrialized countries, the idea of degrowth has emerged as a response to environmental, social, and economic crises. Realizing environmental limits to and failures of more than half a century of continual economic growth in terms of social progress and environmental sustainability, the degrowth paradigm calls for a downscaling of consumption and production for social equity and ecological sustainability. The call for economic degrowth is generally considered to be delimited to rich countries, where reduced consumption can save “ecological space” enabling people in poor countries to enjoy the benefits of economic growth. China, as one of the economically most expanding countries in the world, has dramatically improved its living standards, particularly along the Eastern coast, over the latest 30 years. However, China is absent from the international debates on growth. This article discusses the implications of the Western degrowth debates for China. Given the distinctive features of China’s development, the paper aims to enrich the degrowth debates, which have hitherto been dominated by Western perspectives. Based upon reflections on social, environmental, and moral dimensions of economic growth, the paper argues that limited natural resources may not continuously support universal affluence at the current level of the rich countries, a level that China is likely to reach within a few decades. Priority for growth in China should therefore be given to the poor regions of the country, and future growth should be beneficial to social and environmental development.     

Determination of the Detailed Hydrocarbon Composition and Potential Atmospheric Reactivity of Full-Range Motor Gasolines

The quantitative data obtained with a capillary GLC method, which is used to determine the individual C₃-C₁₂ hydrocarbons in full-range motor gasolines, have been employed in a computer program to calculate the hydrocarbon composition of the vapor in equilibrium with a gasoline at 100°F, as well as the equilibrium vapor-pressure of the gasoline at that temperature. The method used for computation is similar to that previously described by McEwen, assuming the gasoline to behave as an ideal liquid. Also calculated is the potential atmospheric reactivity of this equilibrium vapor relative to that from other gasolines when specific reactivity weighting factors for the individual hydrocarbons are employed. Calculated total vapor-pressure data agree well with experimental Reid vapor-pressure data obtained for typical premium-grade gasolines. Definite differences were observed in the relative potential atmospheric reactivities calculated at 100°F for the equilibrium vapors from the test gasolines.     

enforcement of diesel smoke emissions for the state of new jersey

This paper reports on the research program undertaken by the State of New Jersey to determine those tests and instruments which can be used by authorized state agencies for the enforcement of diesel smoke emissions. The state agencies under consideration for the enforcement of diesel smoke emissions are the following: (1) The Division of Motor Vehicles, in its system of state owned inspection stations, will be able to inspect all diesel-powered trucks, and tractors which are registered in New Jersey. (2) The Public Utilities Commission will be able to inspect at their home garages all buses registered in the State. (3) The New Jersey State Police will be able to inspect diesel-powered vehicles on the road. It was decided that the maximum inspection time for each vehicle was not to exceed one minute. On the basis of the one minute per vehicle requirement, eight different tests were evaluated to determine which ones correlated well with normal vehicle operation. These tests included acceleration of a fixed external inertia, free acceleration of only the moving parts of the engine, three ramp tests, a test in which a heavy vehicle was towed, and a driving test in which the vehicle being tested was actually accelerated. The results of tests demonstrated that the modified free acceleration method correlates reasonably well with a loaded steady state cycle, distinguishes the high emitters and is simple to perform. Consequently, the free acceleration test method is recommended for use in inspection stations and on the road. Finally, nearly two hundred vehicles have been tested by this procedure to determine present and potential levels of diesel smoke emissions. Another phase of the program consisted of the determination of smoke measuring techniques and instrumentation. The use and design of smokemeters were extensively investigated, as well as the use of the visual and photographic techniques. Of the various smokemeters tested for this application, several measured smoke satisfactorily in the laboratory, but none were found adequate for field use; they either lacked portability or were unstable due to the deposition of soot on the optics. At the time of writing, specifications for the necessary smokemeter have been drafted and published for bid to interested manufacturers.     

Determination of Oxides of Nitrogen in Combustion Effluents with a Nitrate Ion Selective Electrode

The nitrate ion selective electrode was investigated as an alternative approach to the present colorimetric determination of nitrate resulting from oxidative absorption of nitrogen oxides from combustion effluents. The electrode offers advantages of speed and relatively simple experimental procedure. Replicate measurements of 10^?4–10^?2M nitric acid solutions using bracketing standards show that the electrode approach is capable of good precision (coefficient of variation = ±4%). Comparison of a method utilizing the nitrate electrode with the more laborious phenol disulfonic acid method for the measurement of nitrogen oxides in both oil and gas fired combustion effluents showed agreement within 4% of the mean even in the presence of high levels of SO₂. The correlation coefficient found for PDS vs nitrate electrode is 0.987.     

Effect of americium-241 on luminous bacteria. Role of peroxides

The effect of americium-241 (²⁴¹Am), an alpha-emitting radionuclide of high specific activity, on luminous bacteria Photobacterium phosphoreum was studied. Traces of ²⁴¹Am in nutrient media (0.16-6.67 kBq/L) suppressed the growth of bacteria, but enhanced luminescence intensity and quantum yield at room temperature. Lower temperature (4 °C) increased the time of bacterial luminescence and revealed a stage of bioluminescence inhibition after 150 h of bioluminescence registration start. The role of conditions of exposure the bacterial cells to the ²⁴¹Am is discussed. The effect of ²⁴¹Am on luminous bacteria was attributed to peroxide compounds generated in water solutions as secondary products of radioactive decay. Increase of peroxide concentration in ²⁴¹Am solutions was demonstrated; and the similarity of ²⁴¹Am and hydrogen peroxide effects on bacterial luminescence was revealed. The study provides a scientific basis for elaboration of bioluminescence-based assay to monitor radiotoxicity of alpha-emitting radionuclides in aquatic solutions.     

Radial increment of larch and pine in central Yakutia as dependent on climate change over the past 120 years

The results of studies on the radial increment of larch and pine in central Yakutia are presented. The application of dendroclimatological methods to the study of tree-ring chronologies has made it possible to evaluate tree growth response to the dynamics of climatic factors over the past 120 years. The results of analysis of radial tree increment show that the onset of the growing season has shifted to earlier dates by the end of the 20th century.     

Scenario analysis of perspective change to support climate adaptation: lessons from a pilot study on Dutch river management

Climate adaptation is a complex task surrounded by uncertainty. To support climate adaptation policies, a new scenario approach is pursued to explore possible discontinuous future developments of societal perspectives on climate adaptation issues. The scenario approach was tested for a case study on Dutch river management. In a series of scenario development workshops, a select group of stakeholders explored the perspectives on the management of the River Meuse in the past, present, and future. The process was supported by an analytical perspectives mapping tool to illustrate and analyze the development of perspectives over time. The process and analytical tools contributed to insight into the drivers of perspective change for the case study at hand. Moreover, the stakeholders highlighted the potential of the approach for water management policy for creating awareness about the plurality of perspectives and the dynamics of perspective change, monitoring perspectives and perspective change as part of a flexible policy approach, and anticipating on the occurrence of shock events. Further work is required to better represent the social dynamics of perspectives change, to better empirically ground the perspective change model, and to apply integrated water models in the scenario development process to assess water–society interactions.