Modeling of agricultural drought risk pattern using Markov chain and GIS in the western part of Bangladesh

The aim of the study is to assess the agricultural drought risk condition in the context of global climate change in the western part of Bangladesh that covers about 45% area of the country for the period of 1960–2011. Drought Index (DI) and Drought Hazard Index (DHI) have been calculated by Markov Chain analysis and that of Drought Vulnerability Index (DVI) from socioeconomic and physical indicators. The DI values show that the northern part in general is more drought-prone, having less crops prospect, whereas the southern part is less drought-prone with high crop potentiality. The probability of extreme drought occurrence increases in recent decades in some parts as a result the drought events become more frequent in the areas. The DHI ranges from 15 to 32, and northern part suffers from more extreme drought hazards than that of southern part. DVI also indicates that northern part is exposed to high to very high drought vulnerability as higher percentage of illiterate people are involved in agricultural practices and high percentage of irrigation to cultivable land, but southern part exposed to moderate to low vulnerability because of low values of vulnerability indicators. Finally, agricultural drought exists at high risk condition in northern part and low in southern parts and 21.63, 26.54 and 29.68% of the area poses very high, high and moderate risk, respectively. So, immediate adaptation measures are needed keeping in mind climate features like rainfall and temperature variability, drought risk and risk ranking to make viable adaptation measures.     

A Simulation of Temporal and Spatial Variations in Carbon at Landscape Level: A Case Study for Lake Abitibi Model Forest in Ontario,Canada

Using a case study of the Lake Abitibi Model Forest (LAMF), this study aims to assess the temporal and spatial variability in carbon storage during 1990–2000, and to present a comprehensive estimation of the carbon budget for LAMF's ecosystems. As well, it provided the information needed by local forest managers to develop ecological and carbon-based indicators and monitor the sustainability of forest ecosystems. Temporal and spatial carbon dynamics were simulated at the landscape level using ecosystem model TRIPLEX1.0 and Geographical Information System (GIS). The simulated net primary productivity (NPP) and carbon storage in forest biomass and soil were compared with field data and results from other studies for Canada's boreal forests. The results show that simulated NPP ranged from 3.26 to 3.34 tC ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ in the 1990s and was consistent with the range measured during the Boreal Ecosystem-Atmosphere Studies (BOREAS) in central Canada. Modeled NPP was also compared with the estimation from remote sensing data. The density of total above-and belowground biomass was 125.3, 111.8, and 106.5 tC ha⁻¹ for black spruce, trembling aspen, and jack pine in the LAMF ecosystem, respectively. The total carbon density of forested land was estimated at 154.4 tC ha⁻¹ with the proportion of 4:6 for total biomass and soil. The analysis of net carbon balance of ecosystem suggested that the LAMF forest ecosystem was acting as a carbon sink with an allowable harvest in the 1990s.     

Periphyton Developed on Artificial Substrates: Effect of Substrate Type and Incubation Depth

The aim of this study was to assess the effect of substrate type and incubation depth on periphyton that had developed on artificial substrates. Uniform rectangular tiles made out of artificial substrates: glass, ceramic, willow tree and yew tree, were fixed on a floating buoy and deployed at three different depths in a photic zone of the Sava Lake (Belgrade, Serbia). Non-taxonomic attributes in the developed biofilm were estimated week-by-week from the start of the experiment in July, until its end in September 2014. Through assessment of substrate type and depth of incubation effect we concluded that these parameters for the fact influence periphyton development and composition. Glass was preferred by autotrophic component over ceramic and wooden substrates. In general, substrate type effect was diminished by increasing incubation depth. When non-taxonomic parameters are to be used in biomonitoring studies, our results suggest that glass substrate and shallow layer of water column (up to 50 cm) for incubation should be preferred.     

Cluster detection using Bayes factors from overparameterized cluster models

In this paper, we consider the use of a partition model to estimate regional disease rates and to detect spatial clusters. Formal inference regarding the number of partitions (or clusters) can be obtained with a reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. As an alternative, we consider the ability of models with a fixed, but overly large, number of partitions to estimate regional disease rates and to provide informal inferences about the number and locations of clusters using local Bayes factors. We illustrate and compare these two approaches using data on leukemia incidence in upstate New York and data on breast cancer incidence in Wisconsin.     

Ecological Function Zoning for Environmental Planning at Different Levels

Environmental planning at different levels has been called for by environmental departments in China during last years to integrate environment consideration to economic development. Based on the accomplished environmental planning practice in Xiamen China, the paper suggests a general environmental planning process with ecological function zoning as its key steps, at the same time an effective method for ecological function zoning was formulated. The case studies of Dongfu suburban town environmental planning and Xiamen eco-city conceptual planning indicate that scientifically sound results of ecological function zoning can contribute to improving not only the adaptability and acceptability of environmental planning, also the environmental management and the decision-making. The experience shows that the ecological function zoning methods should be applied according to the principles of adaptive management, resource-based and community-based, so that it can integrate science into decision-making process, avoiding both narrow-minded viewpoints of planners and natural resource use conflicts among variety of stakeholders. Problems to be resolved in the future are also pointed out in the ending part.     

Evaluation of marine outfall with three-dimensional hydrodynamic and water quality modeling

Numerical models are often used to evaluate the potential impact of human alternation of natural water bodies and to help the design of the alternation to mitigate its impacts. In the past decade, three-dimensional hydrodynamic and reactive transport modeling has matured from a research subject to a practical analysis technology. This paper presents a practical study in which a three-dimensional hydrodynamic and water quality model [hydrodynamic eutrophication model (HEM-3D)] was applied to determine the optimal location for treated wastewater discharged from marine outfall system in the Keelung harbor and the adjacent coastal sea. First, model validation was conducted with respect to surface elevation, current, and water quality variables measured in the Keelung harbor station and its coastal sea. The overall performance of the model was in qualitative agreement with the available field data. The model was then used to evaluate several scenarios of the locations from marine outfall system. Based on model simulation results, a location at the northeast of Ho-Ping Island was recommended for adoption because the environmental impact is smaller than any other alternative.

Assessing land use impacts on flood processes in complex terrain by using GIS and modeling approach

A distributed hydrologic modeling and GIS approach is applied for the assessment of land use impact in the Steinsel sub-basin, Alzette, Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg. The assessment focuses on the runoff contributions from different land use classes and the potential impact of land use changes on runoff generation. The results show that the direct runoff from urban areas is dominant for a flood event compared with runoff from other land use areas in this catchment, and tends to increase for small floods and for the dry season floods, whereas the interflow from forested, pasture and agricultural field areas contributes to the recession flow. Significant variations in flood volume, peak discharge, time to the peak, etc., are found from the model simulation based on the three hypothetical land use change scenarios.     

Elements of fishing community resilience to climate change in the coastal zone of Bangladesh

Resilience has been conceptualized in various ways by anthropologists, ecologists, systems scientists and engineers; the boundaries of resilience are subjective and context dependent. Consequently, choosing the standards and metrics for assessing resilience remains key challenges for policy makers. In this study, using multicriteria evaluation of 40 basic criteria of human, physical, financial, natural and social assets, we have identified several elements, such as experienced fishermen, natural abundance of hilsa (Tenualosa ilisha), ability to assert decision on fish selling, nets and boats ownership, social harmony and capacity of buying food as essential livelihood assets for the fishermen at Hatiya Island, Bangladesh. These assets may enhance the relative resilience of the fishing community of the island to climate change by as much as 20–40%. The results of this study will improve our understanding of the elements that lead to resilience at the community level.     

An economic-environmental analysis of selected barrier-coating materials used in packaging food products: a Swedish case study

The purpose of a barrier coating in food packaging is primarily to increase the shelf life of the foodstuff contained within the packaging, preserve its colour, odour, taste and quality, and thereby reduce food wastage (both at retail outlets and households). While most publications hitherto have compared packaging and barrier-coating materials on the basis of their environmental impacts alone, this paper adopts a more holistic approach by factoring in the economic aspect as well. Four barrier material alternatives—starch, polyethylene, EVOH + kaolin and latex + kaolin are analysed. Two well-defined end-of-life handling scenarios, relevant to Sweden, are: one in which everything except starch is recycled, with starch being composted, and the other in which everything is incinerated. Among the several environmental impact categories which can be analysed, this paper considers only global warming. Two approaches are tested to combine the economic and environmental aspects—normalisation, weighting and aggregating on the one hand, and using the carbon tax to internalise the externality caused by GHG emissions on the other. For the set of weighting factors obtained thanks to a survey conducted by the authors (40.6% for environmental and 59.4% for economic), starch emerges as the most sustainable alternative, followed by polyethylene for both the end-of-life handling scenarios. This tallies with the result obtained by using the carbon tax for internalisation of the externality. The case study, methodology and results presented in this paper, will hopefully be a springboard for more detailed studies of this nature, under the umbrella of sustainability.     

Production and optimization of biodiesel using mixed immobilized biocatalysts in packed bed reactor

Vegetable oils are used as raw materials for biodiesel production using transesterification reaction. Several methods for the production of biodiesel were developed using chemical (alkali and acidic compounds) and biological catalysts (lipases). Biodiesel production catalyzed by lipases is energy and cost-saving processes and is carried out at normal temperature and pressure. The need for an efficient method for screening larger number of variables has led to the adoption of statistical experimental design. In the present study, packed bed reactor was designed to study with mixed immobilized biocatalysts to have higher productivity under optimum conditions. Contrary to the single-step acyl migration mechanism, a two-step stepwise reaction mechanism involving immobilized Candida rugosa lipase and immobilized Rhizopus oryzae cells was employed for the present work. This method was chosen because enzymatic hydrolysis followed by esterification can tolerate high free fatty acid containing oils. The effects of flow rate and bed height on biodiesel yield were studied using two factors five-level central composite design (CCD) and response surface methodology (RSM). Maximum biodiesel yield of 85 and 81 % was obtained for jatropha oil and karanja oil with the optimum bed height and optimum flow rate of 32.6 cm and 1.35 L/h, and 32.6 cm and 1.36 L/h, respectively.