A Parallel Computation Tool to Enable Dynamic Sensitivity and Model Performance Analysis of APEX: Evapotranspiration Modeling

Global sensitivity analysis can be used for assessing the relative importance of model parameters on model outputs. The sensitivity of parameters usually indicates a temporal variation due to variation in the environmental conditions (e.g., variation in weather or plant growth). In addition, the size of averaging window by which the outputs of a model are aggregated or averaged may impact parameter sensitivities. In this study, temporal variation of parameters sensitives, model performance, as well as the impact of the size of time‐averaging window on evapotranspiration (ET) prediction using the Agricultural Policy/Environmental eXtender (APEX) model are investigated. To achieve these goals, an open‐source package named PARAPEX was developed in R and used to perform dynamic sensitivity and model performance analysis of APEX using parallel computation. PARAPEX reduced the computation time from 5,939 to 379 s (using 20 and 1 computation nodes, respectively). The sensitivity analysis results indicated the parameters accounting for the reducing effect of plant cover on evaporation from the soil surface, the effect of soil on the plant root growth, and the effect of cycling and transformation dynamics of organic matter at the top soil layer as the top sensitive parameters based on the mean daily simulated ET and the Nash–Sutcliffe model performance measure. The dynamic performance analysis indicated poor ET predictions by APEX during the growing seasons. Editor's note : This paper is part of the featured series on Optimizing Ogallala Aquifer Water Use to Sustain Food Systems. See the February 2019 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

Sobriety checkpoint and open container laws in the United States: Associations with reported drinking-driving

Objective: The objective of this study was to assess how 2 types of drinking-driving laws—permitting sobriety checkpoints and prohibiting open containers of alcohol in motor vehicles—are associated with drinking-driving and how enforcement efforts may affect these associations.

Methods: We obtained 2010 data on state-level drinking-driving laws and individual-level self-reported drinking-driving from archival sources (Alcohol Policy Information System, NHTSA, and Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System). We measured enforcement of the laws via a 2009 survey of state patrol agencies. We computed multilevel regression models (separate models for each type of law) that first examined how having the state law predicted drinking-driving, controlling for various state- and individual-level covariates; we then added the corresponding enforcement measure as another potential predictor.

Results: We found that states with a sobriety checkpoint law, compared with those without a law, had 18.2% lower drinking-driving; states that conducted sobriety checks at least monthly (vs. not conducting checks) had 40.6% lower drinking-driving (the state law variable was not significant when enforcement was added). We found no significant association between having an open container law and drinking-driving, but states that conducted open container enforcement, regardless of having a law, had 17.6% less drinking-driving.

Conclusion: Our results suggest that having a sobriety checkpoint law and conducting checkpoints as well as enforcement of open containers laws may be effective strategies for addressing drinking-driving.     

Cyberinfrastructure and Web Apps for Managing and Disseminating the National Water Model

Hydrologic modeling can be used to provide warnings before, and to support operations during and after floods. Recent technological advances have increased our ability to create hydrologic models over large areas. In the United States (U.S.), a new National Water Model (NWM) that generates hydrologic variables at a national scale was released in August 2016. This model represents a substantial step forward in our ability to predict hydrologic events in a consistent fashion across the entire U.S. Nevertheless, for these hydrologic results to be effectively communicated, they need to be put in context and be presented in a way that is straightforward and facilitates management‐related decisions. The large amounts of data produced by the NWM present one of the major challenges to fulfill this goal. We created a cyberinfrastructure to store NWM results, “accessibility” web applications to retrieve NWM results, and a REST API to access NWM results programmatically. To demonstrate the utility of this cyberinfrastructure, we created additional web apps that illustrate how to use our REST API and communicate hydrologic forecasts with the aid of dynamic flood maps. This work offers a starting point for the development of a more comprehensive toolset to validate the NWM while also improving the ability to access and visualize NWM forecasts, and develop additional national‐scale‐derived products such as flood maps.     

Moral dimensions of human–wildlife conflict

Despite increasing support for conservation globally, controversy over specific conservation policies persists among diverse stakeholders. Investigating the links between morals in relation to conservation can help increase understanding about why humans support or oppose policy, especially related to human–wildlife conflict or human conflict over wildlife. Yet the moral dimension of human–wildlife conflict has mostly gone unconsidered and unmeasured; thus, policy and programmatic efforts to reduce controversy may be missing a key part of the equation. We conducted a web‐based survey (n = 1239 respondents) in Michigan (U.S.A.) to investigate cognitive and emotional influences on the value–behavior relationship. Respondents were identified by their interest and involvement in Michigan wolf management. The survey consisted of questions about values, emotions, cognitions, and behaviors relative to wolves in Michigan. We used path analysis to explore whether emotions and cognitions mediated the relationship between value and behavior. Most respondents attributed intrinsic value to wolves (n = 734) and all life (n = 773) and engaged in behaviors that benefited wolf populations and ecosystems regardless of stakeholder group (e.g., environmentalist, farmer). Attributing intrinsic value to wolves was positively related to favorable emotions toward wolves and cognitive assessments that hunting and trapping of wolves is unacceptable. Despite similarities in attribution of intrinsic value, groups differed in emotions and cognitions about wolf hunting. These differences provide a useful way to predict stakeholder behavior. Our findings may inform interventions aimed at increasing support for wolf management policies and positive interactions among stakeholders and wildlife. Leveraging agreement over intrinsic value may foster cooperation among stakeholders and garner support for controversial conservation policy.     

Expanding marine protected areas to include degraded coral reefs

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are a commonly applied solution to coral reef degradation, yet coral reefs continue to decline worldwide. We argue that expanding the range of MPAs to include degraded reefs (DR‐MPA) could help reverse this trend. This approach requires new ecological criteria for MPA design, siting, and management. Rather than focusing solely on preserving healthy reefs, our approach focuses on the potential for biodiversity recovery and renewal of ecosystem services. The new criteria would help identify sites with the highest potential for recovery and the greatest resistance to future threats (e.g., increased temperature and acidification) and sites that contribute to MPA connectivity. The DR‐MPA approach is a compliment rather than a substitute for traditional MPA design approaches. We believe that the DR‐MPA approach can enhance the natural, or restoration‐assisted, recovery of DRs and their ecosystem services; increase total reef area available for protection; promote more resilient and better‐connected MPA networks; and improve conditions for human communities dependent on MPA ecosystem services.     

Mainstreaming the social sciences in conservation

Despite broad recognition of the value of social sciences and increasingly vocal calls for better engagement with the human element of conservation, the conservation social sciences remain misunderstood and underutilized in practice. The conservation social sciences can provide unique and important contributions to society's understanding of the relationships between humans and nature and to improving conservation practice and outcomes. There are 4 barriers—ideological, institutional, knowledge, and capacity—to meaningful integration of the social sciences into conservation. We provide practical guidance on overcoming these barriers to mainstream the social sciences in conservation science, practice, and policy. Broadly, we recommend fostering knowledge on the scope and contributions of the social sciences to conservation, including social scientists from the inception of interdisciplinary research projects, incorporating social science research and insights during all stages of conservation planning and implementation, building social science capacity at all scales in conservation organizations and agencies, and promoting engagement with the social sciences in and through global conservation policy‐influencing organizations. Conservation social scientists, too, need to be willing to engage with natural science knowledge and to communicate insights and recommendations clearly. We urge the conservation community to move beyond superficial engagement with the conservation social sciences. A more inclusive and integrative conservation science—one that includes the natural and social sciences—will enable more ecologically effective and socially just conservation. Better collaboration among social scientists, natural scientists, practitioners, and policy makers will facilitate a renewed and more robust conservation. Mainstreaming the conservation social sciences will facilitate the uptake of the full range of insights and contributions from these fields into conservation policy and practice.     

Planning implications from the interactions between renewable energy programs and carbon regulation

Complex relationships exist between programs to reduce carbon dioxide (CO₂) from the electricity sector and programs to promote renewable electricity generation. Simulation modeling of three scenarios in the UK electricity sector are used to identify potential interactions between these programs. A strict CO₂ cap can result in a renewable electricity requirement being easily met. Conversely, the renewables quota could be required under low natural gas prices to keep electricity suppliers from switching from coal to gas. Similarly, CO₂ trading can reduce renewables deployment levels because purchased CO₂ allowances replace renewables. Therefore, both programs are required to ensure CO₂ and renewables goals. The planning implications for administrative procedures and renewables subsidies are also discussed.     

Water Stress Projections for the Northeastern and Midwestern United States in 2060: Anthropogenic and Ecological Consequences

Future climate and land‐use changes and growing human populations may reduce the abundance of water resources relative to anthropogenic and ecological needs in the Northeast and Midwest (U.S.). We used output from WaSSI, a water accounting model, to assess potential changes between 2010 and 2060 in (1) anthropogenic water stress for watersheds throughout the Northeast and Midwest and (2) native fish species richness (i.e., number of species) for the Upper Mississippi water resource region (UMWRR). Six alternative scenarios of climate change, land‐use change, and human population growth indicated future water supplies will, on average across the region, be adequate to meet anthropogenic demands. Nevertheless, the number of individual watersheds experiencing severe stress (demand > supplies) was projected to increase for most scenarios, and some watersheds were projected to experience severe stress under multiple scenarios. Similarly, we projected declines in fish species richness for UMWRR watersheds and found the number of watersheds with projected declines and the average magnitude of declines varied across scenarios. All watersheds in the UMWRR were projected to experience declines in richness for at least two future scenarios. Many watersheds projected to experience declines in fish species richness were not projected to experience severe anthropogenic water stress, emphasizing the need for multidimensional impact assessments of changing water resources.     

Formate species in the low-temperature oxidation of dimethyl ether

The oxidation of dimethyl ether (DME, 340 ppm in 10% O2) has been studied experimentally in an atmospheric pressure laminar flow reactor in the temperature range from 240 degrees C to 700 degrees C for residence times in the range 2-4 s. The influence of nitric oxide additions up to 620 ppm to the feed gases has also been investigated. Products of reaction were determined by FTIR. In the absence of NO, reaction is first detected at about 260 degrees C. The products in the low-temperature region include formaldehyde (HCHO), and formic acid (HCOOH). The addition of NO leads to the appearance of methyl formate (CH3OCHO). While the overall behaviour of the system can be explained qualitatively in terms of typical low-temperature hydrocarbon ignition, recently published chemical kinetic models for DME ignition do not allow for the formation of these formate species. We find no experimental evidence for the formation of hydroperoxymethyl formate (HPMF, HOOCH2OCHO) which is predicted by the models to be a significant stable intermediate at temperatures below 350 degrees C. Since both formic acid and methyl formate have potentially harmful health effects, these observations may have significant implications for use of DME as a diesel fuel.