Forecasting hourly PM<Subscript>10</Subscript> concentration in Cyprus through artificial neural networks and multiple regression models: implications to local environmental management

In the present work, two types of artificial neural network (NN) models using the multilayer perceptron (MLP) and the radial basis function (RBF) techniques, as well as a model based on principal component regression analysis (PCRA), are employed to forecast hourly PM₁₀ concentrations in four urban areas (Larnaca, Limassol, Nicosia and Paphos) in Cyprus. The model development is based on a variety of meteorological and pollutant parameters corresponding to the 2-year period between July 2006 and June 2008, and the model evaluation is achieved through the use of a series of well-established evaluation instruments and methodologies. The evaluation reveals that the MLP NN models display the best forecasting performance with R ² values ranging between 0.65 and 0.76, whereas the RBF NNs and the PCRA models reveal a rather weak performance with R ² values between 0.37-0.43 and 0.33-0.38, respectively. The derived MLP models are also used to forecast Saharan dust episodes with remarkable success (probability of detection ranging between 0.68 and 0.71). On the whole, the analysis shows that the models introduced here could provide local authorities with reliable and precise predictions and alarms about air quality if used on an operational basis.     

A systematic investigation of carbamate stability constants by 1H NMR

A systematic, experimental investigation into carbamate stability constants using ¹H NMR spectroscopy reveals that both steric hindrance and the acid dissociation constant of the parent amine have a significant effect on the stability of the resulting carbamates. Increasing steric hindrance was found to decrease carbamate stability, while increasing pK of the parent amine was found to increase carbamate stability. The carbamate stability constants of monoethanolamine, propylamine, isobutylamine, 2-amino-1-propanol, aminomethylpropanol and methyldiethanolamine were determined as were the carbamate protonation constants of the first four of these amines.     

Effects of long-term acclimation to environmental hypercapnia on extracellular acid–base status and metabolic capacity in Mediterranean fish <Emphasis Type="Italic">Sparus aurata</Emphasis>

In the context of future scenarios of anthropogenic CO₂ accumulation in marine surface waters, the present study addresses the effects of long-term hypercapnia on a Mediterranean fish, Sparus aurata. By equilibration with elevated CO₂ levels seawater pH was lowered to a value of 7.3, close to the maximum pH drop expected in marine surface waters from atmospheric CO₂ accumulation. Intra- and extracellular acid–base parameters as well as changes in enzyme profiles were studied in red and white muscles and the heart under both normocapnia and hypercapnia. The activities of pyruvate kinase (PK), lactate dehydrogenase (L-LDH), citrate synthase (CS), malate dehydrogenase and and 3-hydroxyacyl CoA dehydrogenase (HOAD) reflect the pathways and capacity of oxidative processes in metabolism. Long-term hypercapnia caused a transient reduction in blood plasma pH (pH_e) as well as in intracellular pH (pH_i). Compensation of the acidosis occurred through increased plasma and cellular bicarbonate levels. Changes in enzymatic activities, especially the increase in the activity of L-LDH, paralleled by a drop in CS activity in white and red muscles reflect a shift from aerobic to anaerobic pathways of substrate oxidation during long-term acclimation under hypercapnia. The present results suggest that moderate environmental hypercapnia changes the metabolic profile in tissues of S. aurata. Consequences for slow processes like growth and reproduction potential as well as potential harm at population, species and ecosystem levels require further investigation.     

South-Siberian mountain mires: Perspectives on a potentially vulnerable remote source of biodiversity

Changes in climate, land-use and pollution are having disproportionate impacts on ecosystems and biodiversity of arctic and mountain ecosystems. While these impacts are well-documented for many areas of the Arctic and alpine regions, some isolated and inaccessible mountain areas are poorly studied. Furthermore, even in well-studied regions, assessments of biodiversity and species responses to environmental change are biased towards vascular plants and cryptogams, particularly bryophytes are far less represented. This paper aims to document the environments of the remote and inaccessible Altai-Sayan mountain mires and particularly their bryofloras where threatened species exist and species new to the regional flora are still being found. As these mountain mires are relatively inaccessible, changes in drivers of change and their ecosystem and biodiversity impacts have not been monitored. However, the remoteness of the mires has so far protected them and their species. In this study, we describe the mires, their bryophyte species and the expected impacts of environmental stressors to bring attention to the urgency of documenting change and conserving these pristine ecosystems.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01596-w.     

Recentralisation through regionalisation in the implementation of Rural Development Policy in Scotland

In environmental policy, good governance is pertinent when inclusive decision making is recurrently associated with effective outcomes. This paper explores the European Union's good governance principles and the extent to which these have been adopted in the Rural Development Policy in Scotland. For the programme period 2007–2013 Scotland's Rural Priorities scheme has moved towards decentralisation by introducing regional decision-making committees. This study assesses the impact of this scheme on multi-level stakeholder relationships and the implications on policy outcomes. To do so, the study adopts a mixed method approach, applying a stakeholder mapping technique, to quantify perceptions of influence and interest and triangulate with data from in-depth semi-structured interviews. Results indicate that the attempts to widen decision making has resulted in a number of stakeholders perceiving themselves as less empowered. This analytical approach can provide the baseline against which governance improvements can be measured in the formulation of future policies.     

Can zoning resolve nature use conflicts? The case of the Numto Nature Park in the Russian Arctic

In the Russian Arctic, nature protection is important to preserve valuable ecosystems and indigenous lifestyles against the rapidly expanding oil and gas activities. In this regard, zoning legitimately balances influential stakeholders versus weak ones, and can leverage stakeholders to exercise their rights. This study explores how various stakeholders employ zoning in the Numto Nature Park in the oil-rich Russian Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug–Yugra to advance their interests and how they use scientific information to achieve this. Through stakeholder interviews, analysis of electronic media and literature review, we conclude that a participatory and science-based zoning exercise stimulates the necessary deliberation. However, legal ambiguity, deficient law implementation and informal practices limit the zoning's potential to balance stakeholders’ interests. All the stakeholders calculatingly used scientific information to legitimize their own ambitions, activities and claims. Hence, zoning and the underlying information claims should be interpreted as both a resource and a battleground in nature-use conflicts.     

Sustainable welfare and optimum population size

This paper is an attempt to estimate the level of sustainable welfare, namely a level of consumption that can be enjoyed by all future generations. Based on available measures of the ecological footprint and biocapacity and assuming an acceptable level of per capita consumption, we estimate the maximum level of world population, which will allow that level of consumption without damaging the natural productive capacity of the earth. Also based on a criterion of the ability of each country to feed its people, we estimate the maximum size of population for the fifty most populated countries. It turns out that a few countries are underpopulated (Argentina, Canada, Russia, etc.), but most are overpopulated (China, India, Japan, etc.). We conclude by emphasizing the need for an ecumenical effort to educate and inform people about the need to reduce world population.     

Dissipation and runoff transport of metazachlor herbicide in rapeseed cultivated and uncultivated plots in field conditions

The environmental fate of metazachlor herbicide was investigated under field conditions in rapeseed cultivated and uncultivated plots, over a period of 225 days. The cultivation was carried out in silty clay soil plots with two surface slopes, 1 and 5 %. The herbicide was detectable in soil up to 170 days after application (DAA), while the dissipation rate was best described by first-order kinetics and its half-life ranged between 10.92 and 12.68 days. The herbicide was detected in the soil layer of 10–20 cm from 5 to 48 DAA, and its vertical movement can be described by the continuous stirred tank reactor (CSTR) in series model. Relatively low amounts of metazachlor (less than 0.31 % of the initial applied active ingredient) were transferred by runoff water. More than 80 % of the total losses were transferred at the first runoff event (12 DAA), with herbicide concentrations in runoff water ranging between 70.14 and 79.67 μg L⁻¹. Minor amounts of the herbicide (less than 0.07 % of the initial applied active ingredient) were transferred by the sediment, with a maximum concentration of 0.57 μg g⁻¹ (12 DAA), in plots with 5 % inclination. Finally, in rapeseed plants, metazachlor was detected only in the first sampling (28 DAA) at concentrations slightly higher than the limit of quantification; when in seeds, no residues of the herbicide were detected.