Prenatal screening for Down syndrome in twin pregnancies: Estimates of screening performance based on 61 affected and 7302 unaffected twin pregnancies

The aims of this study were to determine whether assumptions used in prenatal screening for Down syndrome in twin pregnancies are valid and derive estimates of risk and screening performance in twin pregnancies using observed data. Data were collected on nuchal translucency, chorionicity, pregnancy associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A), and free ß human chorionic gonadotrophin (free ß-hCG) from 61 twin pregnancies with Down syndrome and 7302 unaffected twin pregnancies. Distribution parameters were determined and used to estimate screening performance. The assumption that proportional differences in serum marker levels in affected and unaffected singleton pregnancies apply to twin pregnancies was not confirmed. Median free β-hCG value in monochorionic affected twin pregnancies (2.63 multiples of the median [MoM]; 95% CI, 1.79-3.22 MoM) was lower than that assuming proportionality (3.76 MoM), and the median PAPP-A value in dichorionic affected twin pregnancies (1.88 MoM; 95% CI, 1.60-2.17 MoM) was higher than that based on proportionality (1.33 MoM). The detection rate was 87% for a 3% false-positive rate in monochorionic twin pregnancies and 74% in dichorionic twin pregnancies compared with 86% in singleton pregnancies. Estimates of screening performance in Down syndrome twin pregnancies do not need to rely on assumptions and can take account of chorionicity and gestational age.     

Modeling organic carbon dynamics and cadmium fate in long-term sludge-amended soil

A model is described that may help to resolve uncertainty and controversy over the long-term consequences of sludge applications to arable land, especially with regard to the effects of sludge adsorption characteristics on trace metal solubility and bioavailability (e.g., the sludge "time bomb" or sludge "protection" hypotheses). Mass balances of organic and inorganic material derived from sludge and crop residues are simulated. Each pool has a potentially different adsorption affinity for trace metals, and this leads to changes in the adsorption capacity of sludge-amended soil that influence leaching and crop uptake. Model simulations were compared with measured changes in organic carbon and ethylenediaminetetraacetic acid (EDTA)-extractable cadmium contents in a clay loam soil following 41 years of sludge applications. The model adequately reproduced the data, although discrepancies in the vertical distribution of Cd were attributed to the effects of macropore transport and root-uptake driven recirculation. A Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the most important parameters affecting leaching and crop uptake were the Cd loading and parameters controlling adsorption, especially the partition coefficient for sludge-derived inorganic material and the exponent regulating the effect of pH on sorption. Scenario simulations show that no general conclusions can be drawn with respect to the validity of the sludge "time bomb" and sludge "protection" hypotheses. Either may occur, or neither, depending on three key system parameters: the ratio of sludge adsorption capacity to the initial adsorption capacity of the soil, the proportion of the sludge adsorption capacity contributed by the inorganic fraction, and the sludge Cd loading.     

DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION OF A SPATIAL HYDROLOGY MODEL OF OKEFENOKEE SWAMP,GEORGIA1

ABSTRACT: :The model described herein was used to assess effects of the Suwannee River sill (a low earthen dam constructed to impound the Suwannee River within the Okefenokee National Wildlife Refuge to eliminate wildfires) on the hydrologic environment of Okefenokee Swamp, Georgia. Developed with Arc/Info Macro Language routines in the GRID environment, the model distributes water in the swamp landscape using precipitation, inflow, evapotranspiration, outflow, and standing water. Water movement direction and rate are determined by the neighborhood topographic gradient, determined using survey grade Global Positioning Systems technology. Model data include flow rates from USGS monitored gauges, precipitation volumes and water levels measured within the swamp, and estimated evapotranspiration volumes spatially modified by vegetation type. Model output in semi‐monthly time steps includes water depth, water surface elevation above mean sea level, and movement direction and volume. Model simulations indicate the sill impoundment affects 18 percent of the swamp during high water conditions when wildfires are scarce and has minimal spatial effect (increasing hydroperiods in less than 5 percent of the swamp) during low water and drought conditions when fire occurrence is high but precipitation and inflow volumes are limited.     

Birds as predators in tropical agroforestry systems

Insectivorous birds reduce arthropod abundances and their damage to plants in some, but not all, studies where predation by birds has been assessed. The variation in bird effects may be due to characteristics such as plant productivity or quality, habitat complexity, and/or species diversity of predator and prey assemblages. Since agroforestry systems vary in such characteristics, these systems provide a good starting point for understanding when and where we can expect predation by birds to be important. We analyze data from bird exclosure studies in forests and agroforestry systems to ask whether birds consistently reduce their arthropod prey base and whether bird predation differs between forests and agroforestry systems. Further, we focus on agroforestry systems to ask whether the magnitude of bird predation (1) differs between canopy trees and understory plants, (2) differs when migratory birds are present or absent, and (3) correlates with bird abundance and diversity. We found that, across all studies, birds reduce all arthropods, herbivores, carnivores, and plant damage. We observed no difference in the magnitude of bird effects between agroforestry systems and forests despite simplified habitat structure and plant diversity in agroforests. Within agroforestry systems, bird reduction of arthropods was greater in the canopy than the crop layer. Top-down effects of bird predation were especially strong during censuses when migratory birds were present in agroforestry systems. Importantly, the diversity of the predator assemblage correlated with the magnitude of predator effects; where the diversity of birds, especially migratory birds, was greater, birds reduced arthropod densities to a greater extent. We outline potential mechanisms for relationships between bird predator, insect prey, and habitat characteristics, and we suggest future studies using tropical agroforests as a model system to further test these areas of ecological theory.     

Null model analysis of species nestedness patterns

Nestedness is a common biogeographic pattern in which small communities form proper subsets of large communities. However, the detection of nestedness in binary presence-absence matrices will be affected by both the metric used to quantify nestedness and the reference null distribution. In this study, we assessed the statistical performance of eight nestedness metrics and six null model algorithms. The metrics and algorithms were tested against a benchmark set of 200 random matrices and 200 nested matrices that were created by passive sampling. Many algorithms that have been used in nestedness studies are vulnerable to type I errors (falsely rejecting a true null hypothesis). The best-performing algorithm maintains fixed row and fixed column totals, but it is conservative and may not always detect nestedness when it is present. Among the eight indices, the popular matrix temperature metric did not have good statistical properties. Instead, the Brualdi and Sanderson discrepancy index and Cutler's index of unexpected presences performed best. When used with the fixed-fixed algorithm, these indices provide a conservative test for nestedness. Although previous studies have revealed a high frequency of nestedness, a reanalysis of 288 empirical matrices suggests that the true frequency of nested matrices is between 10% and 40%.     

Using DNA barcoding to track seafood mislabeling in Los Angeles restaurants

Seafood mislabeling is common in both domestic and international markets. Studies on seafood fraud often report high rates of mislabeling (e.g., >70%), but these studies have been limited to a single sampling year, which means it is difficult to assess the impact of stricter governmental truth‐in‐labeling regulations. We used DNA barcoding to assess seafood labeling in 26 sushi restaurants in Los Angeles over 4 years. Seafood from 3 high‐end grocery stores were also sampled (n = 16) in 2014. We ordered 9 common sushi fish from menus, preserved tissue samples in 95% ethanol, extracted the genomic DNA, amplified and sequenced a portion of the mtDNA COI gene, and identified the resulting sequence to known fish sequences from the National Center for Biotechnology Information nucleotide database. We compared DNA results with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) list of acceptable market names and retail names. We considered sushi‐sample labels that were inconsistent with FDA names mislabeled. Sushi restaurants had a consistently high percentage of mislabeling (47%; 151 of 323) from 2012 to 2015, yet mislabeling was not homogenous across species. Halibut, red snapper, yellowfin tuna, and yellowtail had consistently high (<77%) occurrences of mislabeling on menus, whereas mislabeling of salmon and mackerel were typically low (>15%). All sampled sushi restaurants had at least one case of mislabeling. Mislabeling of sushi‐grade fish from high‐end grocery stores was also identified in red snapper, yellowfin tuna, and yellowtail, but at a slightly lower frequency (42%) than sushi restaurants. Despite increased regulatory measures and media attention, we found seafood mislabeling continues to be prevalent.     

A meta-ethnography to synthesise household cultural research for climate change response

Cultural change is critical to climate change responses, but the in-depth qualitative research that investigates culture is necessarily conducted at scales difficult to integrate with policy. A focus of climate change mitigation and adaptation is affluent developed world households. Adapting methods used elsewhere in social science, we report and assess a meta-ethnography of household sustainability research, scaling up findings from 12 studies encompassing 276 Australian households. Seven themes are dominant: family concerns are central to household practice; adaptiveness is contingent but more pervasive than often assumed; households make sense of climate change not through abstract arguments, but through physical resources and materials; boundaries of the home space are dynamic and subjective; daily time is an important currency; paradoxes abound among everyday practice; and privacy and a sense of autonomy are prioritised. Insights from the method include new light on familiar themes when seen through an environmental lens, thickening and triangulation of existing research, and a stronger basis for international comparisons. Some findings have straightforward application to policy, others identify potential areas of risk and resistance, others still are more conceptual. We conclude the method has considerable potential and is worth developing further, providing a critical perspective is maintained.