The ecological footprint value (abbreviated as EF) is the quantitative indicator on evaluating the sustainable development status of a region. How to simulate the EF’s trend with a long-time data series has been heatedly discussed. The economic development of Suzhou, one of the most developed cities in Yangtze Delta, China, has been accelerated in the past 20 years, and it is necessary to evaluate the influence of the socioeconomic growth on local natural resources. The EF values of Suzhou from 1999 to 2018 were calculated and simulated using both the ARIMA model and the GM(1,1) model. The ARIMA model has been used in the prediction of EF values in several cases. However, the EF data series of the city consisted of white noise and could not be fitted by the ARIMA model. The GM(1,1) model, an approach forecasting nonlinear data series, was not found in the studies of the EF simulation. Through the model precision test, the GM(1,1) model introduced fit the EF data series well and was considered to be appropriate to simulate the EF values for Suzhou. The fitting performance was accurate, and the EF values of the city could be forecasted by the model in short term. With the proposed model, the ecological sustainability status of the city was analyzed.
Abstract Land degradation is one of the serious environmental problems that can lead to poverty, and is especially prominent in eco-fragile areas in developing countries and increases the risk of environmental safety. North Hebei Province belongs to an ecologically fragile region in North China, which has great impact on the eco-safety of Beijing and Tianjin. Using Landsat TM data and GIS, this paper evaluates land degradation in North Hebei province of China from the the 1960's to 1987 and 2000. Land use/cover change pattern from 1987 to 2000, its regional difference and forest change characteristics will also be analyzed; soil erosion intensity and arable land suitability were also evaluated. Results revealed that land use/cover pattern in this study area did not change greatly from 1987 to 2000. The structure and function of regional land ecosystem was at a level of local improvement and integral deterioration. Land above medium soil erosion intensity reached 21 percent, which was also the area with a serious soil erosion and land degradation problem. Soil erosion and land degradation intensity of grassland was the biggest. For the present arable land, the proportion of high suitability was 13 percent. 相似文献
In this study adsorption of Cd onto TiO2 nanoparticles and natural sediment particles (SP) were studied and the facilitated transports of Cd into carp by TiO2 nanoparticles and SP were assessed by bioaccumulation tests exposing carp (Cyprinus carpio) to Cd contaminated water in the presence of TiO2 and SP respectively. The results show that TiO2 nanoparticles had a significantly stronger adsorption capacity for Cd than SP. The presence of SP did not have significant influence on the accumulation of Cd in carp during the 25 d of exposure. However, the presence of TiO2 nanoparticles greatly enhanced the accumulation of Cd in carp. After 25 d of exposure Cd concentration in carp increased by 146%, and the value was 22.3 and 9.07 microg/g, respectively. And there is a positive correlation between Cd and TiO2 concentration. Considerable Cd and TiO2 accumulated in viscera and gills of the fish. 相似文献