Prognosis of the spatiotemporal dynamics of ecosystems by means of universal kriging

The use of quantitative data for constructing prognostic maps of the dynamics of ecosystem degradation and restoration by nonlinear simulation methods is a topical field of landscape ecology. This method of dynamic cartography is based on fiberwise comparison of data on the state of Chernye Zemli (the Kalmyk Republic, Russia) in different years and the detailed analysis of the period on which the prognosis was based. For this purpose, materials of repeated aerial and satellite photography obtained during a long period (1954–1993) were used. Comparison of maps characterizing the dynamics of Chernye Zemli between 1958 and 1993 allows prognostic electronic maps for the next 10–15 years (with a five-year interval) to be drawn and land prognosis for the next 20–30 years (1998–2023) to be obtained. Deceased     

Human impacts on methane emission from mangrove ecosystems in India

This study deals with the emission of methane in relation to changing environmental conditions and human impact, in three mangrove ecosystems of south India. Time-varying fluxes of methane adopting the close chamber technique were used to estimate CH₄ emission from an unpolluted site (Pichavaram mangroves) and two polluted sites viz. (1) Ennore Creek mangroves (affected by fertilizer effluents and crude oil discharges) and (2) Adyar estuary mangroves (affected by the discharges of organic and industrial wastes), covering monthly and seasonal variations. The results indicate annual average CH₄ emissions of 7.4, 5.02 and 15.4 mg m⁻² h⁻¹ from the sediment–water interface of the Pichavaram, Ennore Creek and Adyar estuary respectively. Emission characteristics obtained at Pichavaram mangroves represent a natural variability with changing physico-chemical factors, whereas the emission characteristics at Ennore Creek and Adyar estuary mangroves show anthropogenic influence. Several environmental factors such as oxygen availability, organic matter, soil physical and chemical properties, in addition to human-mediated interventions have been identified as influencing emission rates in the mangrove ecosystems. Preliminary CH₄ emission estimates for the mangrove ecosystems along the Indian sub- continent and the tropical and subtropical coastline of the world by linear extrapolation based on surface area range from 0.05 to 0.37 and 2.8 to 19.25 Tg CH₄ year⁻¹ respectively. Our results also highlight the impact of human activities on future emission of methane from the mangrove ecosystems. Received: 3 March 1999 / Accepted: 14 September 1999     

The Effect of Vaccinium vitis-idaea on Properties of Mountain-Meadow Soil under Alpine Lichen Heath

Russian Journal of Ecology - Abstract—The study of the effect of mycorrhiza symbiosis on the transformation of carbon and nitrogen compounds in soils is important in view of the necessity to...     

Temporal and Spatial Variations of Phytoplankton Community Structure in Lake Erhai,a Chinese Plateau Lake,with Reference to Environmental Factors

Russian Journal of Ecology - Temporal and spatial variations of phytoplankton community in Lake Erhai were investigated from May 2010 to April 2011. A total of 124 species belonging to 8 phyla and...     

The Outcome of Northern Fur Seal Harvesting: The Results of Calibration of Mathematical Models Based on Observation Data (the Example of Tyulenii Island Population)

Tendencies in the dynamics of harvested northern fur seal (Callorhinus ursinus) population on the Tyulenii Island have been analyzed in detail. The results show that retardation of reproduction (decrease in the numbers of pups) and decline in the survival of young females (up to 3 years of age) by the late 1980s resulted in a reduction of the total number of females and a significant increase in the proportion of older females. This tendency changed during the later observation period (after 1988–1989) due to increase in the survival of young females: the female population has gradually recovered, with the proportion of young females increasing at the expense of old females (aged over 10 years). The age composition of males has also changed: the proportion of young animals has decreased, while that of large mature males (bulls) has increased. Moreover, the number of bulls continues to increase and has already exceeded the level that formerly provided for the well-being of the population. This, a paradoxical situation has arisen: the numbers of females and bulls are increasing, whereas pup production remains at a low level.

     

Factors of Dynamics of Plankton Crustacean Communities under Eutrophic Conditions

Russian Journal of Ecology - It has been shown that the main drivers of the dynamics of cladoceran and copepod abundances can be predators (fish), the quantity and/or quality of food in terms of...     

Energy use,blue water footprint,and greenhouse gas emissions for current food consumption patterns and dietary recommendations in the US

This article measures the changes in energy use, blue water footprint, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with shifting from current US food consumption patterns to three dietary scenarios, which are based, in part, on the 2010 USDA Dietary Guidelines (US Department of Agriculture and US Department of Health and Human Services in Dietary Guidelines for Americans, 2010, 7th edn, US Government Printing Office, Washington, 2010). Amidst the current overweight and obesity epidemic in the USA, the Dietary Guidelines provide food and beverage recommendations that are intended to help individuals achieve and maintain healthy weight. The three dietary scenarios we examine include (1) reducing Caloric intake levels to achieve “normal” weight without shifting food mix, (2) switching current food mix to USDA recommended food patterns, without reducing Caloric intake, and (3) reducing Caloric intake levels and shifting current food mix to USDA recommended food patterns, which support healthy weight. This study finds that shifting from the current US diet to dietary Scenario 1 decreases energy use, blue water footprint, and GHG emissions by around 9 %, while shifting to dietary Scenario 2 increases energy use by 43 %, blue water footprint by 16 %, and GHG emissions by 11 %. Shifting to dietary Scenario 3, which accounts for both reduced Caloric intake and a shift to the USDA recommended food mix, increases energy use by 38 %, blue water footprint by 10 %, and GHG emissions by 6 %. These perhaps counterintuitive results are primarily due to USDA recommendations for greater Caloric intake of fruits, vegetables, dairy, and fish/seafood, which have relatively high resource use and emissions per Calorie.     

An improvement selection methodology for key performance indicators

Key performance indicators (KPIs) are critical measures for determining the health of a manufacturing plant in relationship to the plant’s goals. In today’s competitive environment, manufacturers cannot be careless about their business; in fact, they must ensure that their KPIs are effective and use them to make improvements when necessary. This paper describes a method for suggesting improvements to a manufacturer’s KPIs, based on the results achieved from a workshop to score the KPI on a number of predefined criteria. The approach uses a prospect theory approach to weight the scoring. Different problem formulations were derived that allow for both recommendations for improvements and the recommendations for disinvestments to over-performing KPIs. The authors applied the developed approach to two workshop outputs, each from independent manufacturers, and the results highlighted the significant difference between the two manufacturers in terms of improvement priorities and KPI assessment. The optimal improvement suggestions were compared to those found through a fast heuristic. It was determined that given the underlying assumptions of the approach that the heuristic solutions were just as adequate as the optimal ones.     

Heat wave vulnerability and exposure mapping for Osaka City,Japan

Heat waves and heat-related stresses are increasing environmental concerns in urban areas. The impact of heat waves is dependent on the intensity and duration of each event and on underlying environmental and socio-demographic factors which influence population vulnerability. In order to develop effective adaptation strategies, it is important to develop a method to clearly identify the most vulnerable areas based on these factors. The purpose of this study is to develop and map a heat wave vulnerability index combined with heat exposure analysis to identify areas where interventions can be targeted. The vulnerability index was derived from a principle component analysis of eight key variables that influence heat wave vulnerability. Eight proxy measures of vulnerability were obtained from 2010 census and land-use data for the 1904 census districts of Osaka City. Three principle components explained >77 % of the variance (age, employment and education; social isolation; density and lack of green space). The components were combined and weighted to produce a vulnerability score for each census district. The vulnerability scores ranged from 0 to 106, were categorised into eight vulnerability levels and were overlaid with fine-scale air temperature observations. The resulting output identified the distribution of population vulnerability and exposure. This assessment of vulnerability, combining exposure and sensitivity components, can provide precedent for efficient, targeted action to be taken to reduce the impact of heat waves at present and under climate change.     

Responding to a policy mandate to collaborate: structuring collaboration in the collaborative forest landscape restoration program

The Collaborative Forest Landscape Restoration Program (CFLRP) aims to expand the pace and scale of forest restoration on national forests in the United States. The program requires candidate projects to develop landscape-scale forest restoration proposals through a collaborative process and continue to collaborate throughout planning, implementation, and monitoring. Our comparative case analysis of the initial selected projects examines how existing collaborative groups draw on past experience of collaboration and the requirements of a new mandate to shape collaborative structures as they undertake CFLRP work. While mandating collaboration appears contrary to what is often defined as an informal and emergent process, mandates can encourage stakeholder engagement and renew commitment to overcome past conflict. Our findings also suggest that a collaborative mandate can lead to increased attention and scrutiny, prompting adjustments to collaborative process and structure. As such, mandating collaboration creates dynamic tensions between past experience and new requirements for collaborative practice.