Development of Indicators to Assess Economic Vulnerabilities to Changes in Ecosystem Services: Case Study of Counties in Maryland,USA

We develop indicators showing the relative environmental burdens that human activities place on locales for a given level of economic benefits. The main purpose is to develop tools that allow us to examine the potential vulnerabilities within economies to changes in resource conditions. The indicators of pollution emission or resource consumption per job can be used to identify potential challenges to resource and industry managers and to compare areas in terms of their ability to adapt to change. For example, if a large number of area jobs are dependent on abundant water, this indicates a vulnerability to a reduction in water availability for industrial use. We develop a case study for 23 counties and 1 city in Maryland to examine the usefulness and limitations of the indicators. Our case study demonstrates that the indicators provide an informative view into patterns of local economic activity and use of an area’s environmental goods and services. In contrast to patterns for total environmental burdens (e.g., total SO₂ emissions) that are typically reported, the rates of environmental burden per job are not simply correlated with high or low economic output. Thus, the indicators represent distinct patterns of environmental burdens per job that reflect reliance on environmental services. The indicators have some limitations when used at this fine scale because they can misrepresent conditions in counties in which economic sectors are dominated by one or a few businesses. For this reason, the indicators are best used as a regional screening tool.     

Trade-Based Carbon Sequestration Accounting

This article describes and illustrates an accounting method to assess and compare early carbon sequestration investments and trades on the basis of the number of standardized CO₂ emission offset credits they will provide. The gold standard for such credits is assumed to be a relatively riskless credit based on a CO₂ emission reduction that provides offsets against CO₂ emissions on a one-for-one basis. The number of credits associated with carbon sequestration needs to account for time, risk, durability, permanence, additionality, and other factors that future trade regulators will most certainly use to assign official credits to sequestration projects. The method that is presented here uses established principles of natural resource accounting and conventional rules of asset valuation to score projects. A review of 20 early voluntary United States based CO₂ offset trades that involve carbon sequestration reveals that the assumptions that buyers, sellers, brokers, and traders are using to characterize the economic potential of their investments and trades vary enormously. The article develops a universal carbon sequestration credit scoring equation and uses two of these trades to illustrate the sensitivity of trade outcomes to various assumptions about how future trade auditors are likely to score carbon sequestration projects in terms of their equivalency with CO₂ emission reductions. The article emphasizes the importance of using a standard credit scoring method that accounts for time and risk to assess and compare even unofficial prototype carbon sequestration trades. The scoring method illustrated in this article is a tool that can protect the integrity of carbon sequestration credit trading and can assist buyers and sellers in evaluating the real economic potential of prospective trades. Published online     

Variability in vehicle and dummy responses in rear-end collisions

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to quantify the occupant response variability due to differences in vehicle and seat design in low-speed rear-end collisions. METHODS: Occupant response variability was quantified using a BioRID dummy exposed to rear-end collisions in 20 different vehicles. Vehicles were rolled rearward into a rigid barrier at 8 km/h and the dynamic responses of the vehicle and dummy were measured with the head restraint adjusted to the up most position. In vehicles not damaged by this collision, additional tests were conducted with the head restraint down and at different impact speeds. RESULTS: Despite a coefficient of variation (COV) of less than 2% for the impact speed of the initial 8 km/h tests, the vehicle response parameters (speed change, acceleration, restitution, bumper force) had COVs of 7 to 23% and the dummy response parameters (head and T1 kinematics, neck loads, NIC, N(ij) and N(km)) had COVs of 14 to 52%. In five vehicles tested multiple times, a head restraint in the down position significantly increased the peak magnitude of many dummy kinematic and kinetic response parameters. Peak head kinematics and neck kinetics generally varied linearly with head restraint back set and height, although the neck reaction moment reversed and increased considerably if the dummy's head wrapped onto the top of the head restraint. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study support the proposition that the vehicle, seat, and head restraint are a safety system and that the design of vehicle bumpers and seats/head restraint should be considered together to maximize the potential reduction in whiplash injuries.     

Trace elements accumulation in edible tissues of five sturgeon species from the Caspian Sea

This study is focused on twenty trace elements (Ag, Ba, Bi, Cd, Co, Cr, Cs, Cu, Ga, In, Mn, Mo, Pb, Rb, Sb, Sn, Sr, Ti, V, Zn) accumulation in muscles of five sturgeon species (Acipenser guldenstaedti, A. persicus, A. nudiventris, A. stellatus and Huso huso) from the southern part of the Caspian Sea. Moreover the relationships between some biological characteristics and the levels of the selected elements as well as inter-elemental relationships were assessed. The samples (10 specimens for each the five species) were collected from two important sturgeon fishery zones located in the Iranian part of the Sea in 2002. Concentrations of the elements were determined using ICPMS. Only in the case of Cs could significant differences between two selected sampling areas be detected. There were significant differences in levels of Co, Ga, Rb, Sn, Ti, Pb and Bi in muscles of the species. Only in the case of Cd weight related differences among the species were found. The significant length dependent relationships were observed for Ga and Ba. Patterns of elements accumulation were assessed by statistical methods and compared to the other researches. In all the cases, the amounts of toxic trace elements (Cd, Cu, Pb and Zn) were markedly below the international guidelines for human consumption.     

New insights into the benefits of flood warnings: Results from a household survey in England and Wales

The flood defence agency in England and Wales has been pursuing a programme of flood warning system enhancement, engaging householders at risk in improving their warning responses. The immediate aim of this paper is to test and revise a model of economic benefits of warnings, but the survey data also generate insights into the constraints acting upon flood warning responses. Damage saving is less than previously anticipated: warning reliability and householder availability problems limit savings. Warnings are less likely to be received by those in lower social grades, and flood warning lead time is a factor in avoiding damage. The survey data indicate the complexities involved in improving flood warning response, and provide policy pointers.     

Risk communication in emergency response to a simulated extreme flood

Risk communication in flood incident management can be improved through developing hydrometeorological and engineering models used as tools for communicating risk between scientists and emergency management professionals. A range of such models and tools was evaluated by participating flood emergency managers during a 4-day, real-time simulation of an extreme event in the Thamesmead area in the Thames estuary close to London, England. Emergency managers have different communication needs and value new tools differently, but the indications are that a range of new tools could be beneficial in flood incident management. Provided they are communicated large model uncertainties are not necessarily unwelcome among flood emergency managers. Even so they are cautious about sharing the ownership of weather and flood modelling uncertainties.     

Irrigated Agriculture and Wildlife Conservation: Conflict on a Global Scale

/ The demand for water to support irrigated agriculture has led to the demise of wetlands and their associated wildlife for decades. This thirst for water is so pervasive that many wetlands considered to be hemispheric reserves for waterbirds have been heavily affected; for example, the California and Nevada wetlands in North America, the Macquarie Marshes in Australia, and the Aral Sea in central Asia. These and other major wetlands have lost most of their historic supplies of water and some have also experienced serious impacts from contaminated subsurface irrigation drainage. Now mere shadows of what they once were in terms of biodiversity and wildlife production, many of the so-called "wetlands of international importance" are no longer the key conservation strongholds they were in the past. The conflict between irrigated agriculture and wildlife conservation has reached a critical point on a global scale. Not only has local wildlife suffered, including the extinction of highly insular species, but a ripple effect has impacted migratory birds worldwide. Human societies reliant on wetlands for their livelihoods are also bearing the cost. Ironically, most of the degradation of these key wetlands occurred during a period of time when public environmental awareness and scientific assertion of the need for wildlife conservation was at an all-time high. However, designation of certain wetlands as "reserves for wildlife" by international review boards has not slowed their continued degradation. To reverse this trend, land and water managers and policy makers must assess the true economic costs of wetland loss and, depending on the outcome of the assessment, use the information as a basis for establishing legally enforceable water rights that protect wetlands from agricultural development.     

Tests of association between the humoral immune response of red-winged blackbirds (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Agelaius phoeniceus</Emphasis>) and male plumage,testosterone, or reproductive success

We explored the potential relationships between male traits, reproductive success, testosterone levels in the breeding season, and humoral immunocompetence in male red-winged blackbirds (Agelaius phoeniceus). Males responded to a single injection of diphtheria-tetanus vaccine by producing antibodies to both antigens. The primary responses to each antigen were positively correlated with each other, but the relationship was clearly non-linear. No male responded strongly to diphtheria without also responding strongly to tetanus, but many males had strong responses to tetanus and weak responses to diphtheria. Response to tetanus was positively associated with hormone levels, whereas the relationship between testosterone and the response to diphtheria was weakly and nonsignificantly negative. We found no convincing relationships between immune responses and male morphological traits (epaulet size, body blackness, and body size), male success in male-male competition (territory size and tenure), or male reproductive success (number of mates, average clutch size, proportion of offspring sired, or proportion of young fledged). These results do not support testosterone acting as a constraint on immunity. Testosterone could be mediating a condition-dependent trade-off between sexual ornaments and the immune system, but the evidence for this was weak, as neither any male sexual trait nor any measure of performance was associated with immune responses. We could not eliminate the possibility that male sexual traits advertise other aspects of immunity that are not dependent upon condition or hormones.