On the Effects of Social and Economic Policies on Future Carbon Emissions

Published scenarios of carbon emissions vary over a 40:1 range, and vary greatly even when the possible effects of future climate change policies are ignored. Differences in assumptions about how social and economic policies will affect the rates of economic growth throughout the world, population growth, international trade and investment, the rate of improvement in energy efficiency, and innovations and developments in non-carbon technologies are among the main reasons for such huge differences - alongside the considerable uncertainties that remain about the structural forms and parameters of the economic models used for making projections. The following analysis shows that a low carbon emissions scenario is fully consistent with developing countries achieving economic prosperity and the rich countries increasing theirs. It would depend on the emergence of non-carbon options, such as renewable energy, and this is indeed more likely to happen with favourable conditions for economic growth and innovation.     

MtDNA population structure and gene flow in lingcod (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Ophiodon elongatus</Emphasis>): limited connectivity despite long-lived pelagic larvae

Lingcod, Ophiodon elongatus Girard, have a 3-month pelagic larval stage and are an important recreational and commercial species on the west coast of North America. Cytochrome-c oxidase I sequences from tissue samples were used to characterize population structure and infer patterns of gene flow from California to Alaska. No significant genetic structure was found when estimates of Wright’s F _ST (i.e., Φ_ST) were generated among all populations sampled. Nesting populations within regions, however, indicated that the inner coast of Washington State is distinct, a result corroborating previous allozyme work. Coalescent-based estimates of gene flow indicate that although migration can be high from an evolutionary perspective, nearly half of all comparisons among populations showed no gene flow in at least one direction. From an ecological perspective, moderate migration rates (Nm < 10) among most populations provide surprisingly limited connectivity at large (∼ 1,000 km) and small (∼100 km) spatial scales. Coalescent-based estimates also show that gene flow between the inner and the outer coasts is asymmetric, a result consistent with prevailing surface currents. Because the expected inter-locus variances for coalescent-based estimates of gene flow are likely large, future work will benefit from analyses of nuclear DNA markers. However, limited demographic connectivity on large spatial scales may help explain why stock recovery has been uneven, with greater recovery in the northern (87% rebuilt) than in the southern (24% rebuilt) fishery region, supporting a regional management strategy. These results suggest that despite a 3-month pelagic larval stage, some areas may be effectively closed with respect to both population dynamics and fishery management issues.     

Techniques and Guidelines for Monitoring Neotropical Butterflies

Long-term monitoring of selected species can identify changes in biological diversity, permitting the timely adjustment of management activities to reverse or avoid undesired trends. This paper addresses several related issues bearing on the development of inexpensive and easily implemented monitoring programs for tropical butterflies. First, we discuss the use of butterflies as ecological indicators. Next, we present field evaluations of butterfly sampling techniques, indicating that: (1) light-gap size greatly affects sampling results in forests and should be of critical concern in site selection and sampling design; (2) baited traps and visual censuses provide complementary data on butterfly abundances; (3) monitoring a subset of locally common butterfly species can provide data for comparing community composition and relative abundance of species in areas where species inventories are incomplete. Drawing on these results, we develop guidelines for designing monitoring programs. These address the formulation of explicit questions to be addressed through monitoring and the selection of appropriate study sites, study species, sampling techniques, and sampling frequency. A protocol for the ongoing butterfly monitoring program that emerged from these studies is appended. The techniques and guidelines presented here are intended to serve as an adaptable model for biologists designing monitoring projects to help guide applied conservation efforts in the tropics.     

The effect of colony size and starvation on food flow in the fire ant,Solenopsis invicta (Hymenoptera: Formicidae)

Summary Food-sharing experiments were performed with laboratory colonies of Solenopsis invicta containing 1000, 10,000, or 20,000 workers and starved for 0, 3, 7, or 14 days. The effect of these variables was measured on the uptake of radioactive sugar water (1 M) by 1% of the colony's workers and on the trophallactic flow of food from these foragers to the remainder of the colony.Patterns of food distribution in small colonies differed significantly from those in larger nests. In 1000-ant nests, small workers more frequently received food than large workers, but in bigger colonies the opposite occurred.Fire ants were adept at distributing sugar water, with food from a few workers rapidly reaching the majority of the colony as foragers donate their crop contents to groups of recipients and these recipients may themselves act as donors.Foragers respond to colony starvation by individually taking up more food and sharing this fluid with a greater proportion of nestmates. Even foragers from satiated colonies can retrieve at least small amounts of liquid.The forager's state of hunger plays an important role in regulating food distribution. In sugar-satiated nests, previously starved foragers are highly successful at passing on labelled sugar whereas prviously fed foragers are not.     

Application of a risk assessment based approach to designing ambient air quality monitoring networks for evaluating non-cancer health impacts

An ambient air quality monitoring network has been establishedusing risk assessment techniques to evaluate adverse health effects from exposures to airborne contaminants. The risk assessment method was compared to traditional methods of establishing air quality monitoring networks: identifying maximumconcentration impacts or maximum total population. Results suggest that the health risk method best predicted the locationof adverse, non-carcinogenic respiratory illnesses during the evaluation period. Spearman Rank Correlation Coefficient, r _s, values obtained using the risk assessment method werestatistically greater than the values obtained using theconcentration and population methods. The concentration methodwas the least accurate predictor of adverse effects.     

Masonry fireplace emissions test method: Repeatability and sensitivity to fueling protocol

A test method for masonry fireplaces has been evaluated during testing on six masonry fireplace configurations. The method determines carbon monoxide and particulate matter emission rates (g/h) and factors (g/kg) and does not require weighing of the appliance to determine the timing of fuel loading.The intralaboratory repeatability of the test method has been determined from multiple tests on the six fireplaces. For the tested fireplaces, the ratio of the highest to lowest measured PM rate averaged 1.17 and in no case was greater than 1.32. The data suggest that some of the variation is due to differences in fuel properties.The influence of fueling protocol on emissions has also been studied. A modified fueling protocol, tested in large and small fireplaces, reduced CO and PM emission factors by roughly 40% and reduced CO and PM rates from 0 to 30%. For both of these fireplaces, emission rates were less sensitive to fueling protocol than emission factors.     

POTENTIAL FOR AUGMENTING WATER YIELD THROUGH FOREST PRACTICES IN WESTERN WASHINGTON AND WESTERN OREGON1

Western Washington and western Oregon comprise a water-rich region that has a very uneven annual distribution of both precipitation and streamflow. Highest demand for water coincides with lowest streamflow levels between July 1 and September 30 when less than 5 percent of annual water yield occurs. Increases in annual water yield in small, experimental watersheds in the region have ranged up to 600 mm after entire watersheds were logged and up to 300 mm in watersheds that were 25 to 30 percent logged. Most of the increase has occurred during the fall-winter rainy season, and yield increases have been largest during the wettest years. Estimated sustained increases in water yield from most large watersheds subject to sustained yield forest management are at best only 3-6 percent of unaugmented flows. Realistically, watersheds in this region will not be managed to produce more water. Water yield augmentation will continue to be only a small and variable by-product of logging. The utility of water yield augmentation is limited by its size and by its occurrence relative to the time of water demand. In some local areas, reduction of fog interception and drip or establishment of riparian phreatophytic hardwoods may reduce summer flows.     

THE INFLUENCE OF SPRING AND FALL TEMPERATURES ON THE AVOIDANCE RESPONSE OF JUVENILE ATLANTIC MENHADEN,BREVOORTIA TYRANNUS,EXPOSED TO SIMULTANEOUS CHLORINE-δT CONDITIONS1

ABSTRACT: The avoidance response of groups of juvenile Atlantic menhaden, Brevoortia tyrannus, was evaluated by exposing test species to a range of simultaneous total residual chlorine (TRC) (0.00, 0.05, 0.10, and 0.15 mg/L) and elevated temperature (0, 2, 4, and 6°C) conditions simulating power plant discharges. This species was tested at both 15 and 20°C to determine possible effects of acclimation temperature on the avoidance response. These temperatures were selected to represent spring or fall thermal conditions when most East Coast power plant facilities initiate power plant chlorination in the spring or terminate the use of this biocide in the fall. An unbalanced 3-factor factorial design was used to develop response surface avoidance models at 15 and 20°C. The model developed at 15°C showed: (1) an increase in avoidance occurred at all δT conditions as TRC increased from 0.00 to 0.05 mg/L; (2) a greater degree of avoidance occured at TRC concentrations above 0.05 mg/L at all δT conditions; and (3) TRC was the most important term inflencing avoidance. The model for Atlantic menhaden at 20°C showed: 1) avoidance increased with increasing TRC concentration at each δT condition; (2) avoidance did not necessarily increase with increasing δT's at each TRC concentration; (3) greatest avoidance occured at 0°C δT and 0.15 mg/L TRC; and (4) TRC was the most important term influencing avoidance. There was a significant difference (p < 0.00001) between avoidance models at 15 and 20°C. However, when extreme conditions of 0.15 mg/L TRC and 0–6°δT were compared, the degree of avoidance responses (percent time in control area) was similar.     

MINE DRAINAGE AND ROCK TYPE INFLUENCES ON EASTERN OHIO STREAM WATER QUALITY1

ABSTRACT: Stream water during fair weather (base flow) is largely ground water discharge, which has been in contact with minerals of the underlying aquifer. Base flow water quality should therefore reflect aquifer mineralogy as well as upstream land use. Three upstream mining categories (unmined lands, abandoned coal mines, and reclaimed coal mines) differed in pH, specific conductance, sulfate, iron, aluminum, and alkalinity for 122 streams in eastern Ohio. Aquifer rock type influenced pH, specific conductance, sulfate, iron, and alkalinity. Reclamation returned many components of acid mine drainage to near unmined levels, although sulfate and specific conductance were not improved. Acid mine drainage problems were less severe in watersheds underlain by the calcareous Monogahela Formation. These results should ayply to other Appalachian coal regions having similar rock units. The water quality data distributions were neither consistently normal nor lognormal. Statistical tests utilizing ranks of the water quality data, instead of the data themselves, proved useful in analyzing the influences of mining category and rock type.