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691.
N. Dolgener L. Freudenberger N. Schneeweiss P. L. Ibisch R. Tiedemann 《Regional Environmental Change》2014,14(3):1063-1072
Environmental change is likely to have a strong impact on biodiversity, and many species may shift their distribution in response. In this study, we aimed at projecting the availability of suitable habitat for an endangered amphibian species, the Fire-bellied toad Bombina bombina, in Brandenburg (north-eastern Germany). We modelled a potential habitat distribution map based on (1) a database with 10,581 presence records for Bombina from the years 1990 to 2009, (2) current estimates for ecogeographical variables (EGVs) and (3) the future projection of these EGVs according to the statistical regional model, respectively, the soil and water integrated model, applying the maximum entropy approach (Maxent). By comparing current and potential future distributions, we evaluated the projected change in distribution of suitable habitats and identified the environmental variables most associated with habitat suitability that turned out to be climatic variables related to the hydrological cycle. Under the applied scenario, our results indicate increasing habitat suitability in many areas and an extended range of suitable habitats. However, even if the environmental conditions in Brandenburg may change as predicted, it is questionable whether the Fire-bellied toad will truly benefit, as dispersal abilities of amphibian species are limited and strongly influenced by anthropogenic disturbances, that is, intensive agriculture, habitat destruction and fragmentation. Furthermore, agronomic pressure is likely to increase on productive areas with fertile soils and high water retention capacities, indeed those areas suitable for B. bombina. All these changes may affect temporary pond hydrology as well as the reproductive success and breeding phenology of toads. 相似文献
692.
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694.
Ani Melkonyan P.h.D Malcolm O. Asadoorian P.h.D. 《Environment, Development and Sustainability》2014,16(2):393-414
With 21 % of gross domestic product (GDP) in agricultural sector and having consistently experienced natural disasters (e.g., drought, flood), Armenia is very vulnerable to climate and its change. Given the fact that 63 % of the entire land is planted with grains, this study primarily focuses on the market for wheat flour and bread. Economic welfare loss due to drought episodes is calculated using the economic data integrated with climate measures. Economic data are utilized for the period 1995–2011 (obtained from Statistical Office of Armenia) and specifically include the quantity produced and consumed of wheat flour and bread combined with mean prices, population income, GDP in the agricultural sector, GDP in the planting sector, and governmental expenditure on subsidies. Climate data include temperature and precipitation during the period 1966–2011 (obtained from National Hydrometeorological Service of Armenia). The analysis includes three main components. The first utilizes a market framework that analyzes the impact of climate on equilibrium prices and quantities as well as trade and tax effects. The second employs a logarithmic utility function to estimate the effective insurance policy for the agricultural sector using risk management strategies. Lastly, a macroeconomic model has been developed to assess the efficient sum of governmental expenditure on subsidies and irrigation during the drought episodes and during the mean climatic conditions. All three parts of the study are developed for the first time. 相似文献
695.
P. M. S. Jayathilaka Peeyush Soni Sylvain R. Perret H. P. W. Jayasuriya Vilas M. Salokhe 《Regional Environmental Change》2012,12(1):55-68
Climate change is the main global challenge of this century; it is therefore imperative to identify its effects on agriculture
in developing countries. This research makes spatial assessment of climate change effect on major plantation crops in Sri
Lanka, with emphasis on crop suitability of tea, rubber, and coconut. Geo-referenced maps of spatial and temporal changes
in crop suitability and production potentials are generated and compared. Data pertaining to six agro-ecological zones under
the study area are analyzed for a period of 1980–2007. Crop suitability maps are generated amalgamating yield maps and climatic
factors maps using AHP in multi-criteria analysis under two time frames of 1980–1992 and 1993–2007. Percent change in crop
suitability and crop yield classes is calculated based on five crop suitability and five crop yield classes during two time
frames. Dynamics of climatic parameters and crop yield are recognized using geo-referenced maps. The suitability maps of the
two time frames are compared to identify the changes with each crop in conjunction with changes in the prevailing climate
and yield. Geographic shift of suitability, yield, and climate classes are examined. Net gain or loss in crop production is
quantified. Long-term annual rainfall significantly decreased in mid-country wet zone, whereas the mean temperature of the
study area increased by 1.4°C. Results clearly showed that the climate and yield can be meaningfully related to the crop suitability
and management. 相似文献
696.
The food supply to a large metropolis such as Paris involves huge fluxes of goods, which considerably impact the surrounding rural territories. Here, we present an attempt to localise Paris food supply areas, over a period of two centuries (1786, 1886, 2006), based on the analysis of data from transportation and production statistics for cereals, animal products, and fruits and vegetables, all three categories being expressed in terms of their nitrogen (i.e. protein) content. The results show contrasting trends for the three types of agricultural products. As for cereals, the Paris supply area remained for the most part restricted to the central area of the Paris basin, a region which gradually became specialised in intensive cereal production. Conversely, as animal farming had been progressively excluded from this area, regions located west and north of Paris (Brittany, Normandy, Nord-Pas-de-Calais) gradually dominated the supply of animal products to the metropolis. In addition, imported feed from South America today contributes as much as one-third of the total ration of feed in the livestock raised in these regions. For fruits and vegetables, about one-half of the Paris supply currently comes from long-distance imports, the other half coming from areas less than 200 km from Paris. As a whole, the Paris food supply area, although it has obviously enlarged in recent periods, is still anchored to an unexpected extent (about 50%) in its traditional nearby hinterland roughly coinciding with the Seine watershed, and in the regions specialised in animal farming located west and north. On the other hand, the agricultural system of the main food supply areas has considerably opened to global markets. 相似文献
697.
Zhu Ting Ganesh P. Shivakoti Chen Haiyun David Maddox 《Environment, Development and Sustainability》2012,14(2):197-220
Community-based co-management (CBCM) mechanisms for forest management have matured through the development of new economic
analysis and common property theory. However, while many local CBCM mechanisms have been initiated in Chinese Natural Reserves,
there are few objective, data-based evaluations of whether these mechanisms improve forest conservation and local livelihoods.
This research uses Baishuijiang National Natural Reserve (BNNR) as a study case to evaluate China’s current CBCM mechanisms.
The evaluation is based mainly on three criteria: efficiency, equality and sustainability of project operation. Survey data
indicate that local CBCM mechanisms provide a wide-participation platform for local villagers, associated administration managers,
research institutions and NGOs to join in forest resource protection work while improving local livelihood. CBCM projects
have also facilitated a reduction in forest resource dependency, the improvement of household income and encouragement of
local people to participate in forest resource protection. Our analysis suggests that most CBCM organizations have made progress
in efficiency, equity and sustainability. However, further study should focus on how to deal with the lingering problems of
inequity in responsibility and rights among CBCM committee members, poor distribution of benefits, insufficient program-design
and management expertise, faulty information dissemination, and insufficient capital investment. 相似文献
698.
M. A. Potapov I. V. Zadubrovskaya P. A. Zadubrovskii O. F. Potapova V. I. Evsikov 《Russian Journal of Ecology》2012,43(1):40-44
A comparative analysis of reproductive behavior has been performed in the steppe lemming (Lagurus lagurus) and narrow-skulled vole (Microtus gregalis). The results show that the species are similar in certain behavioral features indicative of the stability of mating pairs.
However, in the narrow-skulled vole, unlike in the steppe lemming, mature males in olfactory tests show preference for receptive
sibling females versus non-kin females. Probably, it is the absence of the incest taboo that allows the involvement of young
of the year in reproduction within growing family groups and accounts for “coloniality” of the species. 相似文献
699.
The results are presented that have been obtained during long-term studies (1991–2009) on the efficiency of natural reproduction
of the beluga, Russian sturgeon, stellate sturgeon, and sterlet in different spawning zones of the Volga. The influence of
major environmental factors on the formation of the offspring of these fishes is analyzed. It is shown that the productivity
of Volga spawning grounds varies depending on the river flow volume during spring floods and the abundance of active spawners.
Practical recommendations are proposed for enhancing sturgeon reproduction in the Volga. 相似文献
700.
An addition of additives to fuel oils prior to combustion is one way of reducing combustible contaminant emissions to the outer air. Reported test results show that some additives improve, moderately, the combustive properties of fuel oils. Combustion is also improved but to a lesser degree, in boiler systems that are deficient in operation and design. Being combustible, polynuclear hydrocarbons emissions would be reduced by use of additives. Other types of additives to reduce slagging and inhibit corrosion from combustion of fuel oils are also available. The cost of using additives is low. Improved additives are required, especially ones to better combustion in the deficient boiler systems. These can be found by research and literature surveys. Their effectiveness and nontoxicity would be confirmed by laboratory and field testing. 相似文献