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971.
Farming in higher latitudes is generally believed to benefit from a warmer climate due to extended growing season, reduced risk of frost, availability of more productive cultivars, and an opening potential of farming in northern locations. We analyzed the impact of climate change on production of cereals in Russia and found that this general perception of beneficiary effect of a warmer climate is unlikely to hold, primarily due to increasing risk of droughts in the most important agricultural areas of the country. Past impacts of droughts on food security throughout the twentieth century suggest that a number of adaptation options are available to mitigate the increasing risks of crop failure. We analyze the effectiveness of these measures in connection with a set of climate change projections, under two contrasting scenarios of interregional grain trade: “Fortress Market” and “Open Market.” 相似文献
972.
James S. Risbey 《Regional Environmental Change》2011,11(1):197-203
Water resources in Australia are sensitive to changes in rainfall. Ongoing droughts in south-west and south-east Australia are stressing water resources in the major cities and in agricultural regions. Climate change scenarios for Australia include reasonable prospects of long-term drying, which would exacerbate these issues. The dryer scenarios would entail major readjustments and costs on natural and human systems. 相似文献
973.
974.
Surface sediments of the lagoons of Lomé, Togo, were analyzed for mercury, methylmercury, and trace elements. Concentrations
were greater than typical for natural lagoon sediments, and with greater variability within the Eastern lagoon compared to
the Western one. The Eastern lagoon is larger and has been dredged in the past, while the Western lagoon, which also receives
major waste inputs, has not been dredged and shows less tidal flushing. Accordingly, one naturally believes that the Eastern
lagoon is cleaner and probably safe to use due to its natural resources, including fishes to eat. Unexpectedly, we describe
here that mercury methylation was greater in the Eastern lagoon, indicating increased bioavailability of mercury, as probably
facilitated by past dredging that decreased solid-phase retention of inorganic mercury. Urbanization has historically been
more developed in the southern part of the lagoons, which is still reflected in contamination levels of sediment despite dredging,
probably because sources of contamination are still more important there today. Such urban contamination emphasizes the need
to regulate waste discharges and possible airborne contamination in growing cities of developing countries, and implements
environmental and public health monitoring, especially in relation to misbelieves systematically associated with the cleansing
effect of dredging activity. 相似文献
975.
976.
Payments for Environmental Services in Latin America as a Tool for Restoration and Rural Development
Payments for Environmental Services (PES) can encourage projects that enhance restoration, production, and rural development.
When projects promote differentiated systems by paying farmers for the provision of services, the application of PES requires
evaluation of the environmental services provided by each system. We present evaluations of carbon stocks and biodiversity
in pure and mixed native tree plantations in Costa Rica. To illustrate how monetary values can be assigned, we discuss a project
that awarded PES to silvopastoral systems in Costa Rica, Nicaragua, and Colombia based on carbon stocks and biodiversity.
PES can promote positive environmental attitudes in farmers. Currently this project is being scaled up in Colombia based on
their positive experiences with PES as a tool to promote adoption. Compared to PES systems that include only one environmental
service, systems that incorporate bundling or layering of multiple services can make sustainable land uses more attractive
to farmers and reduce perverse incentives. 相似文献
977.
Globally, urban growth will add 1.5 billion people to cities by 2030, making the difficult task of urban water provisions
even more challenging. In this article, we develop a conceptual framework of urban water provision as composed of three axes:
water availability, water quality, and water delivery. For each axis, we calculate quantitative proxy measures for all cities
with more than 50,000 residents, and then briefly discuss the strategies cities are using in response if they are deficient
on one of the axes. We show that 523 million people are in cities where water availability may be an issue, 890 million people
are in cities where water quality may be an issue, and 1.3 billion people are in cities where water delivery may be an issue.
Tapping into groundwater is a widespread response, regardless of the management challenge, with many cities unsustainably
using this resource. The strategies used by cities deficient on the water delivery axis are different than for cities deficient
on the water quantity or water quality axis, as lack of financial resources pushes cities toward a different and potentially
less effective set of strategies. 相似文献
978.
Policy and research issues in the framing and qualities of uncertainties in risks are analyzed, based on the assessments of
dioxin-like compounds (DLCs) and other ingredients in Baltic Sea fish, a high-profile case of governance. Risks are framed
broadly, to then focus on dioxins and beneficial fatty acids, fish consumption, human health, and science-management links.
Hierarchies of uncertainty (data, model, decision rule, and epistemic) and ambiguity (of values) are used to identify issues
of scientific and policy contestation and opportunities for resolving them. The associated complexity of risks is illustrated
by risk–benefit analyses of fish consumption and by evaluations of guideline values, highlighting value contents and policy
factors in presumably scientific decision criteria, and arguments used in multi-dimensional risk and benefit comparisons.
These comparisons pose challenges to narrow assessments centered, for e.g., on toxicants or on food benefits, and to more
many-sided and balanced risk communication and management. It is shown that structured and contextualized treatment of uncertainties
and ambiguities in a reflexive approach can inform balances between wide and narrow focus, detail and generality, and evidence
and precaution. 相似文献
979.
980.
The initial step in the analysis of contaminant transport in fractured rock requires the consideration of groundwater velocity. Practical methods for estimating the average linear groundwater velocity (vˉ) in fractured rock require determination of hydraulic apertures which are commonly calculated by applying the cubic law using transmissivity (T) values and the number of hydraulically active fractures in the test interval. High-resolution, constant-head step injection testing of cored boreholes in a 100 m thick fractured dolostone aquifer was conducted using inflatable packers to isolate specific test intervals from the rest of the borehole. The steps in each test interval were gradually increased from very low to much higher injection rates. At smaller injection rates, the flow rate vs. applied pressure graph projects through the origin and indicates Darcian flow; non Darcian flow is evident at higher injection rates. Non-Darcian flow results in significantly lower calculated T values, which translates to smaller hydraulic aperture values. Further error in the calculated hydraulic aperture stems from uncertainty in the number of hydraulically active fractures in each test interval. This estimate can be inferred from borehole image and core logs, however, all of the fractures identified are not necessarily hydraulically active. This study proposes a method based on Reynolds number calculations aimed at improving confidence in the selection of the number of active fractures in each test interval. 相似文献