Finding Hope in the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

Abstract:  Over the past quarter century, a new scientific activity has emerged: collective assessments by large numbers of scientists from different disciplines combining their expertise to better understand human interrelations with nature and to inform policy. The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment exceeded all such assessments before it in both the breadth of its coverage and the depth of its analysis of socioecological system dynamics. The findings are not encouraging. Nearly all ecosystems are being degraded and will continue to be degraded for decades to come even if policy changes are initiated now. For scientists participating in the assessment, the MA had another disconcerting aspect. It clearly shows that our fragmented, disciplinary knowledges cannot simply be combined to form an understanding of a whole complex system. Counterbalancing the despair of the findings and scientific difficulties of aggregating specialized knowledges, the MA demonstrated the potential of a deliberative democratic approach to grappling with complex problems .     

Terrestrial habitat selection and strong density-dependent mortality in recently metamorphosed amphibians

To predict the effects of terrestrial habitat change on amphibian populations, we need to know how amphibians respond to habitat heterogeneity, and whether habitat choice remains consistent throughout the life-history cycle. We conducted four experiments to evaluate how the spatial distribution of juvenile wood frogs, Rana sylvatica (including both overall abundance and localized density), was influenced by habitat choice and habitat structure, and how this relationship changed with spatial scale and behavioral phase. The four experiments included (1) habitat manipulation on replicated 10-ha landscapes surrounding breeding pools; (2) short-term experiments with individual frogs emigrating through a manipulated landscape of 1 m wide hexagonal patches; and habitat manipulations in (3) small (4-m2); and (4) large (100-m2) enclosures with multiple individuals to compare behavior both during and following emigration. The spatial distribution of juvenile wood frogs following emigration resulted from differences in the scale at which juvenile amphibians responded to habitat heterogeneity during active vs. settled behavioral phases. During emigration, juvenile wood frogs responded to coarse-scale variation in habitat (selection between 2.2-ha forest treatments) but not to fine-scale variation. After settling, however, animals showed habitat selection at much smaller scales (2-4 m2). This resulted in high densities of animals in small patches of suitable habitat where they experienced rapid mortality. No evidence of density-dependent habitat selection was seen, with juveniles typically choosing to remain at extremely high densities in high-quality habitat, rather than occupying low-quality habitat. These experiments demonstrate how prediction of the terrestrial distribution of juvenile amphibians requires understanding of the complex behavioral responses to habitat heterogeneity. Understanding these patterns is important, given that human alterations to amphibian habitats may generate extremely high densities of animals, resulting in high density-dependent mortality.     

A risk-based screening approach for prioritizing contaminants and exposure pathways at Superfund sites

Contamination at Superfund sites can involve mixtures of chemicals and radionuclides in a variety of environmental media. Determining priorities for evaluation and remediation of various contaminants is an important part of the initial phases of any site investigation. An effective screening analysis at the beginning of the project can help by identifying both those situations in need of immediate remedial attention and those which require further sampling and evaluation. The screening approach discussed here is made up of two sets of calculations designed to provide upper- and lower-bound estimates of health risk to individuals likely to receive the highest exposures. This approach allows rapid identification of contaminants which pose a negligible risk and can be assigned a low priority for remedial attention or which pose a substantial risk and should be given the highest priority for appropriate remediation efforts. Contaminants designated as neither high- nor low-priority should be investigated in more detail prior to making decisions regarding the need for or method of remediation. The utility of this approach has already been demonstrated in the evaluation of contamination in the Clinch and Tennessee River systems originating from historical operations of atomic weapons and energy research facilities near Oak Ridge, Tennessee.     

Patchy distributions: Optimising sample size

A method for estimating sample size which does not require an a priori definition of desired precision, or the assumption that the population is normally distributed with constant variance, has recently been proposed. This paper discusses this method and presents five modifications which make the method easier to use and reduce the probability of estimating a larger sample size than is actually required. The method is extended and used to estimate the mean abundance of patchily distributed benthic organisms. The technique can be used to guide the design of any environmental sampling programme, be it physical, chemical or biological, where comparisons between times and/or locations are required. Trade-offs between numbers of replicates and numbers of levels/sites are discussed.     

A climate-change vulnerability and adaptation assessment for Brazil's protected areas

Brazil hosts the largest expanse of tropical ecosystems within protected areas (PAs), which shelter biodiversity and support traditional human populations. We assessed the vulnerability to climate change of 993 terrestrial and coastal-marine Brazilian PAs by combining indicators of climatic-change hazard with indicators of PA resilience (size, native vegetation cover, and probability of climate-driven vegetation transition). This combination of indicators allows the identification of broad climate-change adaptation pathways. Seventeen PAs (20,611 km²) were highly vulnerable and located mainly in the Atlantic Forest (7 PAs), Cerrado (6), and the Amazon (4). Two hundred fifty-eight PAs (756,569 km²), located primarily in Amazonia, had a medium vulnerability. In the Amazon and western Cerrado, the projected severe climatic change and probability of climate-driven vegetation transition drove vulnerability up, despite the generally good conservation status of PAs. Over 80% of PAs of high or moderate vulnerability are managed by indigenous populations. Hence, besides the potential risks to biodiversity, the traditional knowledge and livelihoods of the people inhabiting these PAs may be threatened. In at least 870 PAs, primarily in the Atlantic Forest and Amazon, adaptation could happen with little or no intervention due to low climate-change hazard, high resilience status, or both. At least 20 PAs in the Atlantic Forest, Cerrado, and Amazonia should be targeted for stronger interventions (e.g., improvement of ecological connectivity), given their low resilience status. Despite being a first attempt to link vulnerability and adaptation in Brazilian PAs, we suggest that some of the PAs identified as highly or moderately vulnerable should be prioritized for testing potential adaptation strategies in the near future.     

Using vertebrate environmental DNA from seawater in biomonitoring of marine habitats

Conservation and management of marine biodiversity depends on biomonitoring of marine habitats, but current approaches are resource-intensive and require different approaches for different organisms. Environmental DNA (eDNA) extracted from water samples is an efficient and versatile approach to detecting aquatic animals. In the ocean, eDNA composition reflects local fauna at fine spatial scales, but little is known about the effectiveness of eDNA-based monitoring of marine communities at larger scales. We investigated the potential of eDNA to characterize and distinguish marine communities at large spatial scales by comparing vertebrate species composition among marine habitats in Qatar, the Arabian Gulf (also known as the Persian Gulf), based on eDNA metabarcoding of seawater samples. We conducted species accumulation analyses to estimate how much of the vertebrate diversity we detected. We obtained eDNA sequences from a diverse assemblage of marine vertebrates, spanning 191 taxa in 73 families. These included rare and endangered species and covered 36% of the bony fish genera previously recorded in the Gulf. Sites of similar habitat type were also similar in eDNA composition. The species accumulation analyses showed that the number of sample replicates was insufficient for some sampling sites but suggested that a few hundred eDNA samples could potentially capture >90% of the marine vertebrate diversity in the study area. Our results confirm that seawater samples contain habitat-characteristic molecular signatures and that eDNA monitoring can efficiently cover vertebrate diversity at scales relevant to national and regional conservation and management.     

Characteristics that make trophy hunting of giant pandas inconceivable

In November 1928, Theodore Jr. and Kermit Roosevelt led an expedition to China with the expressed purpose of being the first Westerners to kill the giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca). The expedition lasted 8 months and resulted in the brothers shooting a giant panda in the mountains of Sichuan Province. Given the concurrent attention in the popular press describing this celebrated expedition, the giant panda was poised to be trophy hunted much like other large mammals around the world. Today, however, the killing of giant pandas, even for the generation of conservation revenue, is unthinkable for reasons related to the species itself and the context, in time and space, in which the species was popularized in the West. We found that the giant panda's status as a conservation symbol, exceptional charisma and gentle disposition, rarity, value as a nonconsumptive ecotourism attraction, and endemism are integral to the explanation of why the species is not trophy hunted. We compared these intrinsic and extrinsic characteristics with 20 of the most common trophy-hunted mammals to determine whether the principles applying to giant pandas are generalizable to other species. Although certain characteristics of the 20 trophy-hunted mammals aligned with the giant panda, many did not. Charisma, economic value, and endemism, in particular, were comparatively unique to the giant panda. Our analysis suggests that, at present, exceptional characteristics may be necessary for certain mammals to be excepted from trophy hunting. However, because discourse relating to the role of trophy hunting in supporting conservation outcomes is dynamic in both science and society, we suspect these valuations will also change in future.     

Applying the zoo model to conservation of threatened exceptional plant species

Maintaining a living plant collection is the most common method of ex situ conservation for plant species that cannot be seed banked (i.e., exceptional species). Viability of living collections, and their value for future conservation efforts, can be limited without coordinated efforts to track and manage individuals across institutions. Using a pedigree-focused approach, the zoological community has established an inter-institutional infrastructure to support long-term viability of captive animal populations. We assessed the ability of this coordinated metacollection infrastructure to support the conservation of 4 plant species curated in living collections at multiple botanic gardens around the world. Limitations in current practices include the inability to compile, share, and analyze plant collections data at the individual level, as well as difficulty in tracking original provenance of ex situ material. The coordinated metacollection framework used by zoos can be adopted by the botanical community to improve conservation outcomes by minimizing the loss of genetic diversity in collections. We suggest actions to improve ex situ conservation of exceptional plant species, including developing a central database to aggregate data and track unique individuals of priority threatened species among institutions and adapting a pedigree-based population management tool that incorporates life-history aspects unique to plants. If approached collaboratively across regional, national, and global scales, these actions could transform ex situ conservation of threatened plant species.     

Effects of amusing memes on concern for unappealing species

There is limited knowledge of the mechanisms that can inspire people's concern and engagement in the protection of unpopular and unappealing species. We analyzed Polish people's interest in themed internet memes featuring the proboscis monkey (Nasalis larvatus) and the consequences of this interest for conservation marketing. We examined Google Trends data, used Google Search, and searched popular media materials to estimate interest in the proboscis monkey in Poland. Photos of the proboscis monkey when presented with humor in internet memes attracted as much interest as usually more popular species (e.g., koala, panda, and orangutan) used in marketing by nongovernmental organizations. Amusing internet memes spread by social media positively correlated with increasing interest in the unappealing species, such as proboscis monkey. Interest in amusing internet memes positively correlated with individuals’ decisions to donate to 6 crowdfunding actions. Thus, conservation marketing that includes amusing memes and social media may provide a worthwhile complement to traditional campaigns and are likely to influence individuals who are unaffected by the usual means.     

Experimental investigation of a line plume in a filling box

Environmental Fluid Mechanics - A series of experiments were conducted to quantify the dynamics of a filling box driven by a line plume that spans the full width of the enclosure. Three...