基于主成分分析-多元线性回归的松花江水体中多环芳烃源解析

对松花江全流域14个监测断面的16种美国环保局优先控制的多环芳烃(PAHs)的主要来源及其贡献率应用主成分因子分析-多元线性回归模型(PCA-MLR)进行了来源解析。结果表明:松花江全流域为化石和石油燃料的复合PAHs污染,水体环境中PAHs首要污染源为化石燃料燃烧和交通污染,合计贡献率为63.1%,第二大污染源为工业和民用燃煤污染,合计贡献率为36.9%,沿江的石化、石油基地、大型焦化厂、电厂都是PAHs的主要来源。     

Fundamental issues and solutions in the design of China's ETS pilots: Allowance allocation,price mechanism and state-owned key enterprises

This paper analyzes the three main fundamental issues in the design of China’s ETS pilots,including allowance allocation,price mechanism and state-owned key enterprises,and proposed suggested solutions.For the issue of allowance allocation,we suggest that the gradual hybrid mode could be applied at the beginning,which starts with mainly free allocation and then increases auction ratio gradually.And grandfathering is a suitable method of free allocation.For the issue of price mechanism,we suggest a price floating zone with open market operation to reduce the uncertainty of prices.For the issue of state-owned key enterprises,we suggest a good coordination with SASAC,defining the state-owned property right and supervision right when state-owned key enterprises are involved into the carbon market,and the local government can set rules of allocation and transaction to limit their potential market power.     

鄱阳湖流域水文效应对气候变化的响应

以鄱阳湖流域为研究区,以地表-地下耦合的分布式水文模型WATLAC为模拟工具,探讨流域水资源对气候变化的响应。水文模型以2000~2008年为模拟期,以流域河道日径流量来率定(2000~2005年)与验证模型(2006~2008年)并取得了满意的模拟效果。基于此,假定未来气候变化情景方案,通过径流量、土壤蒸发量和基流量来探讨气候变化对流域水资源的影响。结果表明,径流量与基流量对降雨变化有着较强的敏感性,而土壤蒸发量对温度变化的敏感性较强。在降雨一定条件下,水文变量均与气温变化近似呈线性关系;在气温情景一定条件下,水文变量均与降雨变化呈非线性关系。随着降水的减少,气温对径流、土壤蒸发和基流的影响也随之减弱;气温对上述变量的显著影响主要表现在降水增加的情况下。相同的气温变化情景下,降水增加比降水减少对径流量的影响更加显著,降水减少比降水增加对土壤蒸发量与基流量的影响更加显著,表明降水变化对水文变量有着不同程度和方向的影响作用。     

长江宜宾江段渔业资源现状调查

于2011年5～7月和10月在长江干流宜宾江段进行了鱼类资源调查。共采集到鱼类62种（亚种）,隶属于4目10科40属,其中19种为长江上游特有鱼类。圆口铜鱼（Coreius guichenoti）、瓦氏黄颡鱼（Pelteobagrus vachelli）、鲫（Carassius auratus）、长薄鳅（Leptobotia elongate）、中华沙鳅（Botia superciliaris）、南方鲇（Silurus meridionalis）、铜鱼（Coreius heterodon）、鲢（Hypophthalmichthys molitrix）、鲇（Silurus asotus）等为宜宾江段优势种。对主要经济种的体长体重数据进行了分析,结果表明渔获规格较历史数据下降明显,单船日捕捞量亦有减少,长江宜宾段的渔业资源呈现衰退的趋势。作为向家坝蓄水前最后一次对宜宾江段的鱼类群落结构进行分析,研究结果可以为分析向家坝水库蓄水对长江上游鱼类的影响提供数据参考     

鄱阳湖流域水文效应对气候变化的响应

以鄱阳湖流域为研究区,以地表 地下耦合的分布式水文模型WATLAC为模拟工具,探讨流域水资源对气候变化的响应。水文模型以2000～2008年为模拟期,以流域河道日径流量来率定（2000～2005年）与验证模型（2006～2008年）并取得了满意的模拟效果。基于此,假定未来气候变化情景方案,通过径流量、土壤蒸发量和基流量来探讨气候变化对流域水资源的影响。结果表明,径流量与基流量对降雨变化有着较强的敏感性,而土壤蒸发量对温度变化的敏感性较强。在降雨一定条件下,水文变量均与气温变化近似呈线性关系;在气温情景一定条件下,水文变量均与降雨变化呈非线性关系。随着降水的减少,气温对径流、土壤蒸发和基流的影响也随之减弱;气温对上述变量的显著影响主要表现在降水增加的情况下。相同的气温变化情景下,降水增加比降水减少对径流量的影响更加显著,降水减少比降水增加对土壤蒸发量与基流量的影响更加显著,表明降水变化对水文变量有着不同程度和方向的影响作用     

Detailed Ecological Footprint Accounting of Liaoning in 2006

Abstract

Ecological footprint (EF) has received considerable attention as a useful indicator in the context of sustainable development. So far, EF has been used in numerous studies by academies, organizations and government authorities. However, the results of these studies failed to be comparable directly with each other due to imprecise data sets, unmodified accounting methods of pasture and fossil energy, ignored secondary products, undefined process of calculating yield factors and improper biocapacity for biodiversity. In this paper, we elaborated on EF estimating methods from six categories of consumption in order to overcome the limitations above. We adopted precise data and revised methods, calculated EF of some secondary products, introduced weighted factor to calculate yield factors and adjusted biocapacity by an appropriate amount. Meanwhile, we investigated the resource consumption of Liaoning Province in 2006 to assess EF. Its results showed that Liaoning Province overused its natural capital and was in an unsustainable state. We concluded that two specific problems that had arisen in EF assessment and gave some suggestions for Liaoning Province to improve its unsustainable state.     

An International Comparative Analysis on China’s Economic Growth and the Convergence in Energy Intensity Gap and Its Economic Mechanism

Abstract

In this paper, the authors have empirically analyzed the convergence in per capita GDP gap and the convergence in the variation of energy intensity with respect to the change of per capita GDP between China and eight developed countries. Then, the authors run a regression on the impact of decisive factors of economic growth on energy intensity and its change, so as to find out the economic mechanism of energy intensity gap changing with respect to the variation of economic growth. This study concludes that: First, there is a convergence in per capita GDP gap between China and the eight developed countries. With the convergence in per capita GDP gap, the energy intensity gap between China and eight different countries also converge, and the convergence rate of the latter is faster than that of the former, i.e. if the per capita GDP gap between China and the eight developed countries decreases by 1%, the energy intensity gap between them will correspondingly decrease by 1.552%. Second, the energy intensity decreases with the improvement of industrial structure, the rising of energy prices, the advances of technology, and the expansion of investment in fixed assets, and it slightly increases with the increase of FDI. Third, the energy intensity gap between China and eight developed countries narrows with the lessening of the difference in fixed assets investment, energy prices, and technological progress between China and eight developed countries, yet increases with the narrowing of the difference in FDI, and has no significant correlation with the difference in industrial structure. Fourth, the narrowing of difference in per capita GDP between China and the eight developed countries can result in the lessening of energy intensity gap, whose economic mechanism is that the decisive factors, such as difference in investment, technology, and the competition mechanism of prices, which can determine the difference in economic growth, can significantly affect the energy intensity gap.     

基于遗传神经网络的除湿机故障诊断与寿命预测

目的识别除湿机的性能状态和预测吸附剂的剩余寿命。方法针对除湿机故障过程缓变的特点,提出一种基于数据驱动的遗传神经网络模型。首先,为解决设备失效程度划分模糊的问题,由5个热力参数组成反映吸附剂劣化程度的特征向量,关联分析得到除湿机的5类故障模式。其次,利用遗传神经网络建立状态参数和故障模式的映射关系。最后,对表征设备吸附能力的主参数进行外推预测。结果训练好的诊断网络可准确地识别出设备的劣化程度及其演变过程,预测网络的预测精度非常高。结论该方法可有效地实现对除湿机的故障诊断与预测。。     

季节性城市生活垃圾成分分析及厌氧消化特性研究

城市生活垃圾的成分及特性随着季节和人类在不同季节的生活习惯而变化,针对我国北方城市研究了一年中不同季节的城市生活垃圾成分特点,对影响厌氧发酵过程的相关成分如总有机碳（TOC）、总氮（TN）、蛋白质、脂肪和还原糖等进行了测定分析。通过厌氧消化实验,测得不同季节城市生活垃圾pH值、日产气量、沼气甲烷含量、甲烷累积量、挥发性脂肪酸（VFAs）和氧化还原电位（ORP）等参数的变化规律,分析相应变化的影响因素。结果表明,二、三季度的含水率分别为64．81％和67．50％,高于一、四季度,一季度发酵原料中蛋白质和脂肪含量分别为12．56％和8．86％,明显高于其他3个季度。一季度甲烷累积量最高,达到17616mL,单位发酵原料的产气量为204．8mL／g,也是4个季度中最高的,说明蛋白质、脂肪等有机成分含量对厌氧发酵过程及结果影响比较明显。为进一步的城市生活垃圾厌氧消化制取生物燃气的工艺条件提供依据。     

中国危险废物和医疗废物焚烧处置行业二（口恶）排放水平研究

通过调研全国危险废物和医疗废物焚烧处置设施,对包含二噁英排放水平的设施按处置对象、炉型和处理量分类,并作系统分析和研究.结果表明现有危险废物焚烧设施烟气中二噁英的浓度比医疗废物低,达标率为74.19%;危险废物选用回转窑处置效果较好,达标率为66.67%;而医疗废物选用回转窑或热解炉,要综合考虑处置规模、生产成本和二英排放总量等因素;危险废物介于10~30 t·d-1和医疗废物介于10~20 t·d-1的处置设施要尤其注意二噁英的排放问题;医疗废物焚烧飞灰中二噁英的均值浓度为危险废物6倍以上,仅有16.67%满足填埋要求.二者烟气中二英的浓度分布以1,2,3,4,6,7,8-HpCDF、2,3,7,8-TCDF和OCDD为主.