Foresight science in conservation: Tools,barriers, and mainstreaming opportunities

Foresight science is a systematic approach to generate future predictions for planning and management by drawing upon analytical and predictive tools to understand the past and present, while providing insights about the future. To illustrate the application of foresight science in conservation, we present three case studies: identification of emerging risks to conservation, conservation of at-risk species, and aid in the development of management strategies for multiple stressors. We highlight barriers to mainstreaming foresight science in conservation including knowledge accessibility/organization, communication across diverse stakeholders/decision makers, and organizational capacity. Finally, we investigate opportunities for mainstreaming foresight science including continued advocacy to showcase its application, incorporating emerging technologies (i.e., artificial intelligence) to increase capacity/decrease costs, and increasing education/training in foresight science via specialized courses and curricula for trainees and practicing professionals. We argue that failure to mainstream foresight science will hinder the ability to achieve future conservation objectives in the Anthropocene.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-022-01786-0.     

Robust optimization evaluation of reliance on locally produced foods

While local food production may be beneficial in terms of developing the local economy and reducing greenhouse gases from transportation, sustainability strategies focused on local food production may generate their own risks due to yield variability. We have developed a robust optimization (RO) model to determine the minimum amount of land (cropland and pasture) required to grow food items that would satisfy a local population’s (accounting for gender and age) calorie and nutrient needs. This model has been applied to Boone County, Missouri, which has a population of approximately 170,000. Boone County is 1790 km², with 16% of the land defined as cropland and 30% defined as pasture. The model includes 27 nutrients from 17 potential foods that could be produced: six fruits and vegetables, five grains and six animal-sourced foods. Yield estimates are based on the predominate methods of agriculture in the USA. We first run our model assuming no variability, using the midpoint yield estimates. Then, to quantify uncertainty in yield for different food types, we use historical yield data over 10 years to estimate this variability and run our RO model under these variability estimates. We compare the two model results to illustrate the impact of data uncertainty on meeting sustainable local food for communities. Solutions suggest that nutrition needs can be met for the Boone County population within the land area defined.     

Molecular composition of recycled organic wastes,as determined by solid-state 13C NMR and elemental analyses

Using solid state ¹³C NMR data and elemental composition in a molecular mixing model, we estimated the molecular components of the organic matter in 16 recycled organic (RO) wastes representative of the major materials generated in the Sydney basin area. Close correspondence was found between the measured NMR signal intensities and those predicted by the model for all RO wastes except for poultry manure char. Molecular nature of the organic matter differed widely between the RO wastes. As a proportion of organic C, carbohydrate C ranged from 0.07 to 0.63, protein C from <0.01 to 0.66, lignin C from <0.01 to 0.31, aliphatic C from 0.09 to 0.73, carbonyl C from 0.02 to 0.23, and char C from 0 to 0.45. This method is considered preferable to techniques involving imprecise extraction methods for RO wastes. Molecular composition data has great potential as a predictor of RO waste soil carbon and nutrient outcomes.     

Accelerated carbonation of different size fractions of bottom ash from RDF incineration

This paper investigates the effects of accelerated carbonation on the characteristics of bottom ash from refuse derived fuel (RDF) incineration, in terms of CO₂ uptake, heavy metal leaching and mineralogy of different particle size fractions. Accelerated aqueous carbonation batch experiments were performed to assess the influence of operating parameters (temperature, CO₂ pressure and L/S ratio) on reaction kinetics. Pressure was found to be the most relevant parameter affecting the carbonation yield. This was also found to be largely dependent on the specific BA fraction treated, with CO₂ uptakes ranging from ～4% for the coarse fractions to ～14% for the finest one. Carbonation affected both the mineralogical characteristics of bottom ash, with the appearance of neo-formation minerals, and the leaching behaviour of the material, which was found to be mainly related to the change upon carbonation in the natural pH of the ash.     

Cell phone recycling experiences in the United States and potential recycling options in Brazil

This paper presents an overview of cell phone recycling programs currently available in the United States. At the same time, it also provides analyses of the current recycling situation and possible recycling alternatives for Brazil. Although there are several recycling options in the United States, collection rates are still only 10% of all potential devices because customers are not aware of these possibilities. The whole system is financially based on reselling refurbished cell phones and recycled materials to developing countries which represent an effective and strong market. Several recyclers offer funds to collection partners who are either charities or who work with charities while obtaining the materials that they need in order to run their operations. A mobile phone recycling system for Brazil considering the United States experience and the Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) principle is suggested. A deposit/refund/advance-recycling fee is proposed which might be implemented as a voluntary industrial initiative managed by PRO Brazil, a producer responsibility organization. One widespread public–private agreement will integrate all mobile phone stakeholders, and environmental education actions and promotional events will promote citizen’s participation.     

Modeling microbiological and chemical processes in municipal solid waste bioreactor,part I: Development of a three-phase numerical model BIOKEMOD-3P

The numerical computer models that simulate municipal solid waste (MSW) bioreactor landfills have mainly two components – a biodegradation process module and a multi-phase flow module. The biodegradation model describes the chemical and microbiological processes. The models available to date include predefined solid waste biodegradation reactions and participating species. Some of these models allow changing the basic composition of solid waste. In a bioreactor landfill several processes like anaerobic and aerobic solids biodegradation, nitrogen and sulfate related processes, precipitation and dissolution of metals, and adsorption and gasification of various anthropogenic organic compounds occur simultaneously. These processes may involve reactions of several species and the available biochemical models for solid waste biodegradation do not provide users with the flexibility to simulate these processes by choice. This paper presents the development of a generalized biochemical process model BIOKEMOD-3P which can accommodate a large number of species and process reactions. This model is able to simulate bioreactor landfill operation in a completely mixed condition, when coupled with a multi-phase model it will be able to simulate a full-scale bioreactor landfill. This generalized biochemical model can simulate laboratory and pilot-scale operations in order to determine biochemical parameters important for simulation of full-scale operations.     

Generating CO2-credits through landfill in situ aeration

Landfills are some of the major anthropogenic sources of methane emissions worldwide. The installation and operation of gas extraction systems for many landfills in Europe and the US, often including technical installations for energy recovery, significantly reduced these emissions during the last decades. Residual landfill gas, however, is still continuously produced after the energy recovery became economically unattractive, thus resulting in ongoing methane emissions for many years. By landfill in situ aeration these methane emissions can be widely avoided both, during the aeration process as well as in the subsequent aftercare period. Based on model calculations and online monitoring data the amount of avoided CO_2-eq. can be determined. For an in situ aerated landfill in northern Germany, acting as a case study, 83–95% (depending on the kind and quality of top cover) of the greenhouse gas emission potential could be reduced under strictly controlled conditions. Recently the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has approved a new methodology on the “Avoidance of landfill gas emissions by in situ aeration of landfills” (UNFCCC, 2009). Based on this methodology landfill aeration projects might be considered for generation of Certified Emission Reductions (CERs) in the course of CDM projects. This paper contributes towards an evaluation of the potential of landfill aeration for methane emissions reduction.     

Intranest relatedness and nestmate recognition in the meadow ant Formica pratensis (R.)

The impact of intranest relatedness on nestmate recognition was tested in a population of polydomous and monodomous nests of the mound-building ant Formica pratensis. Nestmate recognition was evaluated by testing aggression levels between 37 pairs of nests (n=206 tests). Workers from donor colonies were placed on the mounds of recipient nests to score aggressive interactions among workers. A total of 555 workers from 27 nests were genotyped using four DNA microsatellites. The genetic and spatial distances of nests were positively correlated, indicating budding and/or fissioning as spread mechanisms. Monodomous and polydomous nests did not show different aggression levels. Aggression behavior between nests was positively correlated with both spatial distance and intranest relatedness of recipient colonies, but not with genetic distance or intranest relatedness of donor colonies. Multiple regression analysis revealed a stronger effect of spatial distance than of genetics on aggression behavior in this study, indicating that the relative importance of environment and genetics can be variable in F. pratensis. Nevertheless, the positive regression between intranest relatedness of recipient colonies and aggression in the multiple analysis supports earlier results that nestmate recognition is genetically influenced in F. pratensis and further indicates that foreign label rejection most likely explains our data.     

Relationship between Coefficient of Inbreeding and Parasite Burden in Endangered Gazelles

Abstract: We studied the effects of inbreeding depression on parasite infection in three species of endangered gazelles: Gazella cuvieri , G. dama, and G. dorcas . Coefficients of inbreeding were calculated for all individuals because complete genealogies were available. The levels of inbreeding differ both intra- and interspecifically. We collected samples of feces and determined nematode infection by counting nematode eggs in the samples. At the interspecific level, the species with the highest mean levels of inbreeding (  G. cuvieri ) had the highest levels of gastrointestinal parasites. Analyses done at the intraspecific level revealed a positive relationship between individual coefficient of inbreeding and parasite infection in G. cuvieri , but not in the species with the intermediate and lowest levels of inbreeding. Our findings suggest that high levels of inbreeding may make individuals more susceptible to parasitism, even under favorable environmental conditions, so this factor should be taken into account by those managing endangered species.     

Climate Warming and Calling Phenology of Frogs near Ithaca, New York, 1900–1999

Abstract: Because ambient temperature strongly influences reproduction in frogs, the seasonal timing of frog calling provides a sensitive index of biotic response to climate change. Over the last century, daily temperatures increased during 5 of the 8 months key to gametogenesis in frogs and toads near Ithaca, New York ( U.S.A.). Earliest dates of calling frogs recorded by Albert Hazen Wright between 1900 and 1912 near Ithaca were compared to those from the New York State Amphibian and Reptile Atlas Project for 1990–1999 for the three counties surrounding Ithaca. Four species are now calling 10–13 days earlier, two are unchanged, and none is calling later. The data suggest that climate has warmed in central New York State during this century and has resulted in earlier breeding in some amphibians—a possible first indication of biotic response to climate change in eastern North America.