关中地区飑线天气的预测及灾害对策探讨

对１９６１～１９９０年发生在陕西省关中地区的飑线天气及其灾害进行了统计分析，并从天气形势背景方面对飑线的发生发展进行了研究和分析，同时就飑线的预测和防灾对策进行了探讨。     

Site characteristics,growth and nutrition of natural red pine stands in newfoundland

Red pine (Pinus resinosa Ait.) is rare (< 15 000 mature trees) in Newfoundland and is known from only 22 locations in the central region. Red pine occupies 3 major site types in Newfoundland: 1) red pine on medium-textured sands (RP1), 2) red pine on coarse-textured glaciofluvial deposits (RP2), and 3) red pine on Folisols over bedrock (RP3). The succession of red pine site types after cutting is from red pine to Kalmia-black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.) for RP1, and to Cladonia-Kalmia-black spruce for types RP2 and RP3. Succession after fire is usually to the pre-fire type, but this depends on the severity of the fire.Although occupying a relatively poor site, red pine at 60–70 years reaches heights in excess of 18 m, dbh in excess of 40 cm, and individual tree volumes greater than 1 m³ were recorded in 75 stemanalyzed fire-killed trees. Black spruce on that same site produces less than one-third that volume in 60 years. Merchantable volume of 140–280 m³ ha^-1 were recorded i.e., Canada Land Inventory (CLI) forest capability class 5 and class 4 ratings. This raises the CLI rating two capability classes if red pine were occupying these poor quality sites over black spruce. In terms of nutrition, even the best growing red pine are nitrogen (N) deficient as shown by foliar analysis. All natural stands have foliar N concentrations below 1.3% which is the critically low level shown in the literature. Immediately after fire, foliar concentrations reach this level but are usually about 1% or less. Most other nutrients are low but are within the generally reported adequate levels in testing for P, K, Ca and Mg.Fire influences soil nutrient availability as pH increases in the RP1 type. Burning temperature also affects soil pH and the understory vegetation. The RP2 type loses more N in hotter burns on this site type and more N is tied up in these ortstein hardpan soils. The pattern of regeneration following wildfire is related to slope, density, age and species mixture of the stand as well as the thickness and composition of the duff layer.     

Resolving People-Park Conflicts through Negotiation: Reflections on the Richtersveld Experience

Protected areas in developing countries play a vital role in promoting the ideal of sustainable development.But 'people-park'conflicts are commonplace,threatening the future of these areas and the long term well-being of local communities. Surprisingly, little attention has been given to applying lessons learned in conflict studies to people-parkconflicts. In contrast to traditional adversarialresponses, negotiated approaches offer considerable potential for transforming people-park conflicts into mutually beneficial relationships.Experiencesin the Richtersveldregion of South Africa demonstrate the cardinal role negotiation can play in addressing key issues underlying people-park conflicts.     

Risky health and safety habits related to perceived value of the future

Risk homeostasis theory postulates that people accept a specific level (target level) of risk in a given activity in return for benefits accruing from that activity. It follows that, if people expect a great deal from the future, the less likely they are to jeopardise it by taking risks in respect of their health and safety. One effective method for reducing target level of risk are incentives, and the available literature contains ample evidence of the effectiveness of incentives programmes in accident prevention. As incentives essentially imply an enhanced quality of life in the future, the question arises as to how expectations of the future may be related to health and safety habits. In order to explore the relationship between perceived value of the future and health and safety habits, an analysis of the psychological literature on individual differences in future time orientation/perspective is presented. Four factors are identified: (1) clear ideation of the future, (2) active planning for the future, (3) time pressure, and (4) optimistic expectations about events outside one's own control. It is hypothesised that factors (1) and (2) are associated with positive health and safety habits, while factors (3) and (4) may characterise individuals with relatively high target levels of physical risk. Research questions and procedures for the study of these relationships are discussed.     

Loss of genetic diversity in Harpacticoida near offshore platforms

Offshore oil and gas production platforms can be a source of chronic stress that could lead to sublethal impacts on resident benthic organisms. In June 1993 and January 1994, genetic diversity of Harpacticoida (Copepoda) living proximal to operating, offshore platforms in the Gulf of Mexico was estimated to test if platforms are associated with strong selective pressures. Because harpacticoids have short generation times and direct benthic development, they are suitable organisms for examining population responses. Genetic diversity was estimated by comparing restriction fragment length polymorphisms generated from mitochondrial DNA amplified by the polymerase chain reaction on individuals of five species (Cletodes sp., Enhydrosoma pericoense, Normanella sp., Robertsonia sp., and Tachidiella sp.). Populations living at Near regions (stations<50 m from a platform) had significantly less haplotype diversity than populations of the same species living at Far regions (stations>3 km from a platform). The levels of haplotype diversity exhibited by the Far populations were similar at three different platforms located hundreds of kilometers apart. The differences in haplotype diversity between Near and Far regions were the result of a higher proportion of dominant haplotypes, and a loss of less common haplotypes. Haplotypic diversity was inversely correlated with a multivariate measurement of levels of sediment contaminants. The pattern of haplotype diversity on the Gulf of Mexico continental shelf seems to consist of a uniform level of haplotype diversity, punctuated by islands of lower diversity around oil and gas platforms. The selective pressures that lead to a loss of genetic diversity may be the result of contaminants, other differences in the physico-chemical environment, or disturbance in general.     

Earthquake hazard assessment after Mexico (1985)

The 1985 Mexican earthquake ranks foremost amongst the major earthquake disasters of the twentieth century. One of the few positive aspects of the disaster is that it provided massive quantities of data that would otherwise have been unobtainable. Every opportunity should be taken to incorporate the findings from these data in earthquake hazard assessments. The purpose of this paper is to provide a succinct summary of some of the more important lessons from Mexico. It stems from detailed field investigations, and subsequent analyses, conducted by the author on the behalf of reinsurance companies.     

Design and validation of a practical index for trauma assessment

In the past 20 years a variety of indices have been suggested for measuring the severity of trauma, however none of them meets the requirement of being a simple and objective instrument that can be utilized efficiently by lay persons and providers of health services without previous experience in triaging. A new system has been proposed which meets this requirement and which has been validated with 197 injured persons at the emergency ward of the Valle University Hospital in Call, Colombia. The instrument showed a high level of concordance with the conventional triaging method and classifies victims into four categories: critical with recovery unlikely, critical but recoverable, moderately serious, and ambulatory. There is discussion on the reliability of this instrument and it is recommended that it be validated with victims from larger disasters. Regardless, it has the advantage of being specific and free of the subjectivity that characterizes other indices.