Linking Models of Land Use,Resources, and Economy to Simulate the Development of Mountain Regions (ALPSCAPE)

We present a framework of a scenario-based model that simulates the development of the municipality of Davos (Swiss Alps). We illustrate our method with the calculation of the scenario for 2050 “Decrease in subsidies for mountain agriculture and liberalization of markets.” The main objective was to link submodels of land-use allocation (regression-based approach), material and energy flows submodels (Material and Energy Flux Analysis), and economic submodels (Input–Output Analysis). Letting qualitative and quantitative information flow from one submodel to the next, following the storyline describing a scenario, has proven to be suitable for linking submodels. The succession of the submodels is then strongly dependent on the scenario. Qualitative information flows are simulated with microsimulations of actor choices. Links between the submodels show different degrees of robustness: although the links involving microsimulations are the weakest, the uncertainty introduced by the land-use allocation model is actually advantageous because it allows one possible change in the landscape in the future to be simulated. The modeling results for the scenario here presented show that the disappearance of agriculture only marginally affects the region’s factor income, but that the consequences for the self-sufficiency rate, for various landscape-related indicators and ecosystem services, and for the economy in the long term may be considerable. These benefits compensate for agriculture’s modest direct economic value. The framework presented can potentially be applied to any region and scenario. This framework provides a basis for a learning package that allows potential detrimental consequences of regional development to be anticipated at an early stage.     

Trinkwasserschutzgebiete

Conflict are frequently observed when drinking water protection areas are to be defined and when many variants of how to protect these area are to be found. Using ten potential scenarios, a method is presented here which shows how such conflicts concerning these variants may be handled in a systematic manner. The technique is derived from the use of partially ordered sets and their visualization by Hasse diagrams. The first step is to define rankings of different variants according to each aim of protection. A further step is to define an appropriate relationship of order. It is then possible to visualize the extent of consensus and of dissension through the use of a Hasse diagram. The final step is to quantify the importance of each protection aim and the initialization of an iteration. Should a complete consensus be found, this would result in a chain of (connected) variants. Should a complete dissension be found on the other hand, an antichain would then result (i.e. where all variants are isolated).     

Nachhaltige Entwicklung von Managementstrategien: Multikriterielle Bewertungs- und Entscheidungshilfe-Instrumente im Umweltbereich

Zur Unterstützung von Bewertungs- und Entscheidungsprozessen über die Nachhaltigkeit von Managementstrategien, deren Auswirkungen durch unterschiedlich dimensionierte Indikatoren gemessen werden, gibt es verschiedene mathematische Methoden. In diesem Beitrag werden die Prinzipien dieser sog. multikriteriellen Bewertungs- und Entscheidungshilfeinstrumente beispielhaft anhand einer Auswahl von Strategien für ein Nachhaltiges Wassermanagement vorgestellt, sowie Vor- und Nachteile herausgearbeitet. Es wird gezeigt, dass sich die Verfahren insbesondere in Transparenz, Objektivit?t und durch den Grad an Partizipation durch Akteure z.T. erheblich unterscheiden. W?hrend die Hassediagrammtechnik sich an den naturwissenschaftlich begründbaren Datenmatrix orientiert und somit eine objektive und transparente Bewertung und Datenanalyse liefert, haben Konkordanzanalyse, Nutzwertanalyse, PROMETHEE und AHP ihre St?rken in der M?glichkeit, Akteure bzw. Stakeholder am Entscheidungsprozess partizipieren zu lassen. *** DIRECT SUPPORT *** A00OI029 00003     

Macro-scale effective constitutive relationships for two-phase flow processes in heterogeneous porous media with emphasis on the relative permeability-saturation relationship

Macro-scale simulations often play an important role in the assessment and remediation of contamination by dense non-aqueous phase liquids (DNAPLs) in the subsurface. Effective parameters for the macro scale are required for these simulations in order to avoid a detailed discretisation of the geological structures. Starting from the observed influence of heterogeneities on multiphase flow processes at the macro scale, we present an upscaling procedure from the local to the macro scale for the derivation of constitutive relationships for multiphase flow processes. The approach is based on the assumption of an equilibrium of (capillary) forces, which allows the application of a percolation model. This results in saturation distributions for different capillary pressures. Averaging these distributions gives rise to a macroscopic capillary pressure-saturation relationship. For the saturation distribution, relative permeabilities and effective conductivities are computed depending on the structure and the flow direction. These are averaged with the help of the renormalisation method. The evolving relative permeability-saturation relationship for the macro scale shows a saturation-dependent anisotropy and pronounced residual saturations of the nonwetting phase (which were not assumed for the local scale). The anisotropy reflects the underlying structure of the considered system that needs not to be known in detail.