Sovereign financial disaster risk management: The case of Mexico

In 2006, Mexico became the first transition country to transfer part of its public-sector natural catastrophe risk to the international reinsurance and capital markets. The Mexican case is of considerable interest to highly exposed transition and developing countries, many of which are considering similar transactions. Risk financing instruments can assure governments of sufficient post-disaster capital to provide emergency response, disaster relief to the affected population and repair public infrastructure. The costs of financial instruments, however, can greatly exceed expected losses, and for this reason it is important to closely examine their benefits and alternatives. This paper analyzes the Mexican case from the perspective of the risk cedent (the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit), which was informed by analyses provided by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). The rationale for a government to insure its contingent liabilities is presented along with the fiscal, legal and institutional context of the Mexican transaction. Using publicly available data, the paper scrutinizes the choice the authorities faced between two different risk-transfer instruments: reinsurance and a catastrophe bond. Making use of IIASA's catastrophe simulation model (CATSIM), this financial risk management decision is analyzed within the context of a public investment decision.     

The quality of Albanian natural waters and the human impact

Albania possesses a wealth of aquatic ecosystems, many of enormous natural and biological value, such as the Lakes Ohrid, Prespa and Shkodra, glacial lakes, river valleys, and coastal lagoons. Although many habitats are highly polluted by inorganic and organic wastes, detailed knowledge on the water quality is still lacking. For the first time, an environmental assessment of the water quality is presented and the main polluting sources identified. As a consequence, a systematic control and the establishment of routine monitoring of surface and groundwater is proposed, which elucidates the present environmental state and helps to develop new strategies of waste and wastewater management. It would help allow Albania to reach an international standard in environmental protection, as a part of UNECE Convention, the Mediterranean Action Plan, the MAP/UNEP Medpol Program and the Basel Convention.     

The community effects of phenotypic and genetic variation within a predator population

Natural populations are heterogeneous mixtures of individuals differing in physiology, morphology, and behavior. Despite the ubiquity of phenotypic variation within natural populations, its effects on the dynamics of ecological communities are not well understood. Here, we use a quantitative genetics framework to examine how phenotypic variation in a predator affects the outcome of apparent competition between its two prey species. Classical apparent competition theory predicts that prey have reciprocally negative effects on each other. The addition of phenotypic trait variation in predation can marginalize these negative effects, mediate coexistence, or generate positive indirect effects between the prey species. Long-term coexistence or facilitation, however, can be preceded by long transients of extinction risk whenever the heritability of phenotypic variation is low. Greater heritability can circumvent these ecological transients but also can generate oscillatory and chaotic dynamics. These dramatic changes in ecological outcomes, in the sign of indirect effects, and in stability suggest that studies which ignore intraspecific trait variation may reach fundamentally incorrect conclusions regarding ecological dynamics.     

Barriers and guidelines for public policies on climate change adaptation: A missed opportunity of scientific knowledge‐brokerage

Progress in formulating and implementing effective adaptation policies is often hampered by a wide variety of barriers that are well documented in the literature. Among the barriers are lack of awareness, certainty, resources and political commitment. Since these and other barriers can be overcome (e.g., by raising awareness, closing knowledge gaps, and increasing resources), numerous decision‐support frameworks (mainly written guidelines) have been developed for this purpose. The present paper takes stock of both the barriers in adaptation policymaking, as documented in the literature, and the guidelines that aim to facilitate public policies on climate change adaptation. It then compares to what degree selected adaptation guidelines serve as knowledge‐brokerage tools that provide guidance on how to overcome the barriers addressed in the scientific literature. The comparison shows that adaptation guidelines address barriers of adaptation policymaking neither comprehensively nor systematically. Since most adaptation guidelines focus on (subjective) experiences with good practices than on empirical research findings, we conclude that they represent a missed opportunity of scientific knowledge‐brokerage in climate change adaptation.     

Where are the Sunday babies? II. Declining weekend birth rates in Switzerland

Birth dates from almost 3 million babies born between 1969 and 2005 in Switzerland were analyzed for the weekday of birth. As in other countries but with unprecedented amplitude, a very marked non-random distribution was discovered with decreasing numbers of births on weekends, reaching -17.9% in 2005. While most of this weekend births avoidance rate is due to fewer births on Sundays (up to -21.7%), the downward trend is primarily a consequence of decreasing births on Saturdays (up to -14.5%). For 2005, these percentages mean that 3,728 fewer babies are born during weekends than could be expected from equal distribution. Most interestingly and surprisingly, weekend birth-avoiding rates are significantly correlated with birth numbers (r = 0.86), i.e. the lower the birth number per year, the lower the number of weekend births. The increasing avoidance of births during weekends is discussed as being a consequence of increasing numbers of caesarean sections and elective labor induction, which in Switzerland reach 29.2 and 20.5%, respectively, in 2004. This hypothesis is supported by the observation that both primary and secondary caesarean sections are significantly correlated with weekend birth avoidance rates. It is therefore likely that financial aspects of hospitals are a factor determining the avoidance of weekend births by increasing the numbers of caesarean sections.     

Ecological benefits of the alley cropping agroforestry system in sensitive regions of Europe

Alley cropping is an agroforestry system that offers a promising land use alternative for the temperate zone. On the same field, the sustainable production of food and biomass is possible, while simultaneously, especially in marginal areas, the ecological function of the landscape can be improved. Thus, alley cropping corresponds with the increasing demand for renewable energy resources and for a specific adaptation to the predicted changes of climatic conditions within Central Europe.However, presently, little knowledge exists regarding the effects of alley cropping on the environment. In this study a literature survey was undertaken to provide an overview of the different ecological benefits arising from alley cropping systems within temperate Europe. Abiotic factors (nutrient cycle, microclimate), biotic factors (biodiversity) and the effects on the carbon cycle are discussed in detail.Summarising, the results showed that alley cropping may be an ecologically advantageous land use system for sustainable food and biomass production in comparison with conventional agricultural practices. As a very flexible, but low-input system, alley cropping can supply biomass resources in a sustainable way and at the same time provide ecological benefits.     

Top-down and Europe-wide versus bottom-up and intra-regional identification of key issues for sustainability impact assessment

Sustainability impact assessment tools aim at optimising the development of policy measures. Here, we present an approach to designing policies for multifunctional land use with application to Europe and its regions. After the 35 environmental, social and economic impact issues of the European Impact Assessment Guidelines were reviewed on the basis of spatiotemporal indicators at both the top-down Europe-wide and bottom-up intra-regional resolution level, cluster analysis identified classes with specific sustainability characteristics and thus regions most likely facing similar sustainability problems. Sensitive region types such as post-industrial zones, mountains, coasts and islands were analysed separately. The results of the cluster analysis were tested against evidence-based information such as UNEP priorities and regional stakeholder evidence. Stakeholder evidence was specifically explored for the land use policy ‘bioenergy promotion’ in Lusatia, Germany. We concluded that these top-down and bottom-up spatiotemporal data classifications with cluster analysis represent useful ex-ante impact assessment tools and need to be supplemented by participatory assessments. This procedure with top-down and bottom-up data analysis, and also participatory evidence, provide a valuable three-step sustainability impact assessment approach in policy making.     

The biogeochemical cycles of phosphorus: A review of local and global consequences of the atmospheric input

P‐input from the atmosphere is, in many oligotrophic ecosystems, substantial for the biomass production; in some regions biomass formation may depend fully or partially on the phosphorus input from the atmosphere. As a consequence, phosphorus must be considered as an element participating in cycles involving the atmosphere, like sulfur and nitrogen. Dust and aerosols containing phosphorus are transported worldwide, linking even distant regions. Human activities enhance the amounts of P distributed. Since the concentrations of P in the atmospheric dry and wet input are usually very low, special care in sampling and analysis is a prerequisite to obtain reproducible data. Some values in the literature may be questionable.     

Investigation of Motorcyclist Cervical Spine Trauma Using HUMOS Model

Objective: With 16 percent of the total road user fatalities, motorcyclists represent the second highest rate of road fatalities in France after car occupants. Regarding road accidents, a large proportion of trauma was on the lower cervical spine. According to different clinical studies, it is postulated that the cervical spine fragility areas are located on the upper and lower cervical spine. In motorcycle crashes, impact conditions occur on the head segment with various orientations and impact directions, leading to a combination of rotations and compression. Hence, motorcyclist vulnerability was investigated considering many impact conditions. Method: Using the human model for safety (HUMOS), a finite element model, this work aims to provide an evaluation of the cervical spine weaknesses based on an evaluation of injury mechanisms. This evaluation consisted of defining 2 injury risk factors (joint injury and bone fracture) using a design of experiment including various velocities, impact directions, and impact orientations. Results: The results confirmed previously reported clinical and epidemiological work on the fragility of the lower cervical spine and the upper cervical spine segments. Joint injuries appeared before bone fractures on both the upper and lower cervical spine. Bone fracture risk was greater on the lower cervical spine than on the upper cervical spine. The compression induced by a high impact angle was identified as an important injury severity factor. It significantly increased the injury incidence for both joint injuries and bone fractures. It also induced a shift in injury location from the lower to the upper cervical spine. The impact velocity exhibited a linear relationship with injury risks and severity. It also shifted the bone fracture risk from the lower to upper spinal segments.