Flow and diffusion measurements in natural porous media using magnetic resonance imaging

Flow and diffusion of water in natural porous media, quartz sand, and calcareous gravel were measured using a 1.5-T clinical magnetic resonance tomograph. The spatial resolution of the dynamic measurements was 1.32 x 1.32 x 5 mm3, and the time between two cross-sectional measurements was approximately 10 s. The measured coefficients of molecular diffusion for water were in good agreement with theoretical data. Flow was measured without any tracer at velocities between 0.15 and 6.67 mm/s. The results, based on a calibration within one part of the column, were in good agreement with data obtained from a tracer experiment and from a numerical model. It was possible to measure the flow velocity in larger pores and preferential flow paths directly. The results of the flow measurements in smaller pores reflected the mean velocity within that volume element. In that case the obtained values were close to the average linear velocity. Since the time resolution is high a monitoring of flow processes is possible. The pore space was imaged with a spatial resolution of 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 mm3. Here, the porosity of pores that are larger than 0.2 mm can be measured directly; for smaller pores a calibration is necessary.     

Direct and Indirect Effects of Soil Pollution by Lignite Mining

Lignite mining and processing has caused a pronounced impact both directly and indirectly on soils and ecosystems across large areas of the former GDR. We studied soils of pine forest ecosystems at sites affected by severe alkaline dust and sulphur deposition, stemming from lignite fired power plant emission, and at dumped sites from lignite mining. In this paper we summarize our main results and evaluate the long-term impact of lignite mining and combustion on the environment. The pine ecosystems on naturally developed soils show a clear effect of deposition history along a former deposition gradient with distinct changes in chemical properties of organic surface layers and mineral soil as well as in element turnover and cycling rates. Afforested sites on mining dumps are directly affected by the composition of the dumped substrates. Over a large area (800 km²) these substrates are dominated by Tertiary sediments with varying amounts of lignitic particles and pyrite that result in phytotoxic site conditions (pH < 3, high salt and metal contents). High amelioration doses of liming material (up to 200 t ha⁻¹) were applied for restoration purposes. We studied the development of these sites over a period of 60 years using a false-time series approach. Beside the extreme soil conditions, element budgets of these sites are characterized by very high element release rates over decades caused by pyrite oxidation and primary mineral weathering.     

Modelling economic impacts and adaptation to extreme events: Insights from European case studies

Adaptation to climate change in Europe has only recently become a true policy concern with the management of extreme events one priority item. Irrespective of future climatic changes increasing the need for systematic evaluation and management of extremes, weather-related disasters already today pose substantial burdens for households, businesses and governments. Research in the ADAM project identified substantial direct risks in terms of potential crop and asset losses due to combined drought and heatwave, as well as flood hazards in Southern and Eastern Europe, respectively. This paper focuses on the indirect, medium to longer term economic risks triggered by the direct risks and mediated by policy responses. We present a selection of three economic impact and adaptation assessments and modelling studies undertaken on extreme event adaptation in Europe. Responding to a need for more economically based adaptation assessments, we address some relatively unresearched issues such as the understanding of past adaptation, the role of market response to impacts as well as government’s ability to plan for and share out extreme event risks. The first analysis undertakes an empirical exploration of observed impacts and adaptation in the agricultural sector in the UK comparing the impact of consecutive extreme events over time in order to determine whether adaptation has occurred in the past and whether this can be used to inform future estimates of adaptation rates. We find that farmers and the agricultural sector clearly have adapted to extreme events over time, but whether this rate can be maintained into the future is unclear, as some autonomous adaptation enacted seemed rather easy to be taken. Markets may mediate or amplify impacts and in the second analysis, we use an economic general equilibrium model to assess the economic effects of a reduction in agricultural production due to drought and heatwave risk in exposed regions in Spain. The analysis suggests that modelled losses to the local economy are more serious in a large-scale scenario when neighbouring provinces are also affected by drought and heatwave events. This is due to the supply-side induced price increase leading to some passing on of disaster costs to consumers. The simulation highlights the importance of paying particular attention to the spatial and distributional effects weather extremes and possibly changes therein induced by climate change may incur. Finally, we discuss how national governments may better plan their disaster liabilities resulting from a need to manage relief and reconstruction activities post event. We do so using a risk based economic planning model assessing the fiscal consequences associated with the coping with natural extremes. We identify large weather-related disaster contingent liabilities, particularly in the key flood hot spot countries Austria, Romania, and Hungary. Such substantial disaster liabilities (“hidden disaster deficits”) when interacting with weak fiscal conditions may lead to substantial additional stress on government budgets and reduced fiscal space for funding other relevant public investment projects. Overall, our paper suggests the importance of respecting the specific spatial and temporal characteristics of extreme event risk when generating information on adaptation decisions. As our adaptation decisions considered, such as using sovereign risk financing instruments are associated with a rather short time horizon, the analysis largely focuses on the management of today’s extreme events and does not discuss in detail projections of risks into a future with climate change. Such projections raise important issues of uncertainty, which in some instances may actually render future projections non-robust, a constraint to be kept in mind when addressing longer term decisions, which at the same time should account for both climate and also socioeconomic change.     

Climate change and financial adaptation in Africa. Investigating the impact of climate change on the robustness of index-based microinsurance in Malawi

This paper discusses the applicability of crop insurance for the case of Malawi and explores the potential impact of climate change on the viability of the Malawi weather insurance program making use of scenarios of climate change-induced variations in rainfall patterns. The analysis is important from a methodological and policy perspective. By combining catastrophe insurance modeling with climate modeling, the methodology demonstrates the feasibility, albeit with large uncertainties, of estimating the effects of climate variability and climate change on the near- and long-term future of microinsurance schemes serving the poor. By providing a model-based estimate of insurance back-up capital necessary to avoid ruin under climate variability and climate change, along with the associated uncertainties and data limitations, this methodology can quantitatively demonstrate the need for financial assistance to protect micro-insurance pools against climate-induced insolvency. This is of major concern to donors, NGOs and others supporting these innovative systems, those actually at-risk and insurers providing insurance. A quantitative estimate of the additional burden that climate change imposes on weather insurance for poor regions is of interest to organizations funding adaptation. Further, by linking catastrophe modeling to regionalized climate modeling, the analysis identifies key modeling inputs necessary as well as important constraints. We end with a discussion of the opportunities and limits to similar modeling and weather predictability for Sub-Saharan Africa beyond the case of Malawi.

Using design effects from previous cluster surveys to guide sample size calculation in emergency settings

A good estimate of the design effect is critical for calculating the most efficient sample size for cluster surveys. We reviewed the design effects for seven nutrition and health outcomes from nine population-based cluster surveys conducted in emergency settings. Most of the design effects for outcomes in children, and one-half of the design effects for crude mortality, were below two. A reassessment of mortality data from Kosovo and Badghis, Afghanistan revealed that, given the same number of clusters, changing sample size had a relatively small impact on the precision of the estimate of mortality. We concluded that, in most surveys, assuming a design effect of 1.5 for acute malnutrition in children and two or less for crude mortality would produce a more efficient sample size. In addition, enhancing the sample size in cluster surveys without increasing the number of clusters may not result in substantial improvements in precision.     

Comparative evaluation of four suspended particulate matter (SPM) sampling devices and their use for monitoring SPM quality

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Representative sampling of suspended particulate matter is fundamental for assessing river sediment quality, including the distribution and...     

Incorporation of in silico biodegradability screening in early drug development—a feasible approach?

Introduction  

The concentration of a pharmaceutical found in the environment is determined by the amount used by the patient, the excretion and metabolism pattern, and eventually by its persistence. Biological degradation or persistence of a pharmaceutical is experimentally tested rather late in the development of a pharmaceutical, often shortly before submission of the dossier to regulatory authorities.