Development of quantitative estimates of uncertainty in environmental risk assessments when the scientific data base is inadequate

The reasons for developing quantitative estimates of uncertainty in environmental risk assessments are discussed along with a method for developing them which involves scientific judgement. In the situation considered here the regulatory needs are ahead of the science, which makes the development of the estimates on uncertainty more difficult, but not impossible. Quantitative estimates for all uncertainties involved in the estimation of risk resulting from exposure to volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in drinking water are developed and tabulated. By far the largest contribution to the uncertainty in the risk estimates for VOCs in drinking water are due to uncertainty in the extrapolation of the dose-response curve to low levels. The uncertainty due to extrapolation is on the order of 10⁴ and 10⁶. Other components of the analysis may contribute uncertainties of a few orders of magnitude. In general the largest uncertainties are in the toxicological data base and the manipulation of it needed to estimate risk. The data base and manipulations needed to estimate exposure due to VOCs in drinking water were at the more an order to magnitudes in uncertainty.     

Perceived stressors of climate vulnerability across scales in the Savannah zone of Ghana: a participatory approach

Smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa are confronted with climatic and non-climatic stressors. Research attention has focused on climatic stressors, such as rainfall variability, with few empirical studies exploring non-climatic stressors and how these interact with climatic stressors at multiple scales to affect food security and livelihoods. This focus on climatic factors restricts understanding of the combinations of stressors that exacerbate the vulnerability of farming households and hampers the development of holistic climate change adaptation policies. This study addresses this particular research gap by adopting a multi-scale approach to understand how climatic and non-climatic stressors vary, and interact, across three spatial scales (household, community and district levels) to influence livelihood vulnerability of smallholder farming households in the Savannah zone of northern Ghana. This study across three case study villages utilises a series of participatory tools including semi-structured interviews, key informant interviews and focus group discussions. The incidence, importance, severity and overall risk indices for stressors are calculated at the household, community, and district levels. Results show that climatic and non-climatic stressors were perceived differently; yet, there were a number of common stressors including lack of money, high cost of farm inputs, erratic rainfall, cattle destruction of crops, limited access to markets and lack of agricultural equipment that crossed all scales. Results indicate that the gender of respondents influenced the perception and severity assessment of stressors on rural livelihoods at the community level. Findings suggest a mismatch between local and district level priorities that have implications for policy and development of agricultural and related livelihoods in rural communities. Ghana’s climate change adaptation policies need to take a more holistic approach that integrates both climatic and non-climatic factors to ensure policy coherence between national climate adaptation plans and District development plans.     

When experts disagree: the need to rethink indicator selection for assessing sustainability of agriculture

Sustainability indicators are well recognized for their potential to assess and monitor sustainable development of agricultural systems. A large number of indicators are proposed in various sustainability assessment frameworks, which raises concerns regarding the validity of approaches, usefulness and trust in such frameworks. Selecting indicators requires transparent and well-defined procedures to ensure the relevance and validity of sustainability assessments. The objective of this study, therefore, was to determine whether experts agree on which criteria are most important in the selection of indicators and indicator sets for robust sustainability assessments. Two groups of experts (Temperate Agriculture Research Network and New Zealand Sustainability Dashboard) were asked to rank the relative importance of eleven criteria for selecting individual indicators and of nine criteria for balancing a collective set of indicators. Both ranking surveys reveal a startling lack of consensus amongst experts about how best to measure agricultural sustainability and call for a radical rethink about how complementary approaches to sustainability assessments are used alongside each other to ensure a plurality of views and maximum collaboration and trust amongst stakeholders. To improve the transparency, relevance and robustness of sustainable assessments, the context of the sustainability assessment, including prioritizations of selection criteria for indicator selection, must be accounted for. A collaborative design process will enhance the acceptance of diverse values and prioritizations embedded in sustainability assessments. The process by which indicators and sustainability frameworks are established may be a much more important determinant of their success than the final shape of the assessment tools. Such an emphasis on process would make assessments more transparent, transformative and enduring.     

Coupled radon, methane and nitrate sensors for large-scale assessment of groundwater discharge and non-point source pollution to coastal waters

We constructed a survey system of radon/methane/nitrate/salinity to find sites of submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) and groundwater nitrate input. We deployed the system in Waquoit Bay and Boston Harbor, MA where we derived SGD rates using a mass balance of radon with methane serving as a fine resolution qualitative indicator of groundwater. In Waquoit Bay we identified several locations of enhanced groundwater discharge, out of which two (Childs and Quashnet Rivers) were studied in more detail. The Childs River was characterized by high nitrate input via groundwater discharge, while the Quashnet River SGD was notable but not a significant source of nitrate. Our radon survey of Boston Harbor revealed several sites with significant SGD, out of these Inner Harbor and parts of Dorchester Bay and Quincy Bay had groundwater fluxes accompanied by significant water column nitrogen concentrations. The survey system has proven effective in revealing areas of SGD and non-point source pollution.     

A review of regulations and guidelines related to winter manure application

Winter manure application elevates nutrient losses and impairment of water quality as compared to manure applications in other seasons. In conjunction with reviewing global distribution of animal densities, we reviewed worldwide mandatory regulations and voluntary guidelines on efforts to reduce off-site nutrient losses associated with winter manure applications. Most of the developed countries implement regulations or guidelines to restrict winter manure application, which range from a regulative ban to guidelines based upon weather and field management conditions. In contrast, developing countries lack such official directives, despite an increasing animal production industry and concern over water quality. An analysis of five case studies reveals that directives are derived from a common rationale to reduce off-site manure nutrient losses, but they are also affected by local socio-economic and biophysical considerations. Successful programs combine site-specific management strategies along with expansion of manure storage to offer farmers greater flexibility in winter manure management.     

Electrospun and functionalized PVDF/PAN nanocatalyst-loaded composite for dechlorination and photodegradation of pesticides in contaminated water

A novel approach for the electrospinning and functionalization of nanocatalyst-loaded polyvinylidene fluoride/polyacrylonitrile (PVDF/PAN) composite grafted with acrylic acid (AA; which form polyacrylic acid (PAA) brush) and decorated with silver (Ag/PAN/PVDF-g-PAA-TiO₂/Fe–Pd) designed for the dechlorination and photodegradation of pesticides was carried out. PAN was used both as a nitrogen dopant as well as a co-polymer. Smooth nanofibers were obtained by electrospinning a solution of 12:2 wt.% PVDF/PAN blend using dimethylformamide (DMF) as solvent. The nanofibers were grafted with AA by free-radical polymerization using 2,2′azobis(2-methylpropionitrile) (AIBN) as initiator. Both bimetallic iron–palladium (Fe–Pd) and titania (TiO₂) nanoparticles (NP) were anchored on the grafted nanofibers via the carboxylate groups by in situ and ex situ synthesis. The Fe–Pd and nitrogen-doped TiO₂ nanoparticles were subsequently used for dechlorination and oxidation of target pollutants (dieldrin, chlorpyrifos, diuron, and fipronil) to benign products. Structural and chemical characterizations of the composites were done using various techniques. These include surface area and porosity analyzer (ASAP) using the technique by Brunner Emmett Teller (BET), Fourier transform infrared (FTIR), X-ray diffraction (XRD), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), and transmission electron microscope (TEM) analyses were done. After dechlorination, the transformation products (TPs) for dieldrin, chlorpyrifos, diuron, and fipronil were obtained and identified using two-dimensional gas chromatography (time-of-flight) with a mass spectrometer detector (GCxGC-TOFMS). Analysis of total organic carbon (TOC) was carried out and used to extrapolate percentage mineralization. Experimental results showed that dechlorination efficiencies of 96, 93, 96, and 90 % for 1, 2, 2, and 3 h treatment period were respectively achieved for 5 ppm solutions of dieldrin, chlorpyrifos, diuron, and fipronil. The dechlorination of dieldrin, diuron, and fipronil follows first-order kinetics while that of chlorpyrifos followed pseudo-first order. Mineralization performance of 34 to 45 % were recorded when Fe–Pd was used, however upon electrospinning, doping, and grafting (Ag/PAN/PVDF-g-PAA-TiO₂/Fe–Pd composite); it significantly increased to 99.9999 %. This composite reveals great potential for dechlorination and mineralization of pesticides in contaminated water.     

Molecular tools for bathing water assessment in Europe: Balancing social science research with a rapidly developing environmental science evidence-base

The use of molecular tools, principally qPCR, versus traditional culture-based methods for quantifying microbial parameters (e.g., Fecal Indicator Organisms) in bathing waters generates considerable ongoing debate at the science–policy interface. Advances in science have allowed the development and application of molecular biological methods for rapid (~2 h) quantification of microbial pollution in bathing and recreational waters. In contrast, culture-based methods can take between 18 and 96 h for sample processing. Thus, molecular tools offer an opportunity to provide a more meaningful statement of microbial risk to water-users by providing near-real-time information enabling potentially more informed decision-making with regard to water-based activities. However, complementary studies concerning the potential costs and benefits of adopting rapid methods as a regulatory tool are in short supply. We report on findings from an international Working Group that examined the breadth of social impacts, challenges, and research opportunities associated with the application of molecular tools to bathing water regulations.