Taking stock of community-based flood risk management in Malawi: different stakeholders,different perspectives

Current flood risk strategies in Malawi are characterized by community-based flood risk management (CB-FRM), even though studies explicitly documenting evidence of successful CB-FRM remain limited. This paper investigates the realities and challenges of CB-FRM as seen through a lens of different stakeholders. In order to capture the experiences of CB-FRM, a predominantly qualitative research framework was developed. In 2016, 11 focus group discussions with stakeholder groups (local communities, local government and non-governmental organisations) were held. Additionally, informal discussions, field visits, a short survey and an extensive desk study were undertaken. The findings were analysed according to the major themes that emerged related to the realities and challenges of specific stakeholder groups. Although response and relief still remain prominent components of CB-FRM in Malawi, a number of mitigation and preparedness activities is observed. However, a lack of in-country resources, relief-oriented aid approaches and an ‘aid dependency’ syndrome represent obstacles. Different stakeholder groups share similar challenges in terms of financing, participation, decentralised governance and project management. Lack of project sustainability and localised ownership also emerged as major challenges. The identified challenges shed light on the frontiers and directions in which improvements are needed, thus offering a valuable contribution to the existing knowledgebase.     

Behavioural inertia places a top marine predator at risk from environmental change in the Benguela upwelling system

In variable environments, organisms are bound to track environmental changes if they are to survive. Most marine mammals and seabirds are colonial, central-place foragers with long-term breeding-site fidelity. When confronted with environmental change, such species are potentially constrained in their ability to respond to these changes. For example, if environmental conditions deteriorate within their limited foraging range, long-lived species favour adult survival and abandon their current breeding effort, which ultimately influences population dynamics. Should poor conditions persist over several seasons, breeding-site fidelity may force animals to continue breeding in low-quality habitats instead of emigrating towards more profitable grounds. We assessed the behavioural response of a site-faithful central-place forager, the Cape gannet Morus capensis, endemic to the Benguela upwelling system, to a rapid shift in the distribution and abundance of its preferred prey, small pelagic shoaling fish. We studied the distribution and the abundance of prey species, and the diet, foraging distribution, foraging effort, energy requirements, and breeding success of gannets at Malgas Island (South Africa) over four consecutive breeding seasons. Facing a rapid depletion of preferred food within their foraging range, Cape gannets initially increased their foraging effort in search of their natural prey. However, as pelagic fish became progressively scarcer, breeding birds resorted to scavenging readily available discards from a nearby demersal fishery. Their chicks cannot survive on such a diet, and during our 4-year study, numbers of breeding birds at the colony decreased by 40% and breeding success of the remaining birds was very low. Such behavioural inflexibility caused numbers of Cape gannets breeding in Namibia to crash by 95% following over-fishing of pelagic fish in the 1970s. In the context of rapid environmental changes, breeding-site fidelity of long-lived species may increase the risk of local or even global extinction, rendering these species particularly vulnerable to global change.     

Field evidence for pervasive indirect effects of fishing on prey foraging behavior

The indirect, ecosystem-level consequences of ocean fishing, and particularly the mechanisms driving them, are poorly understood. Most studies focus on density-mediated trophic cascades, where removal of predators alternately causes increases and decreases in abundances of lower trophic levels. However, cascades could also be driven by where and when prey forage rather than solely by prey abundance. Over a large gradient of fishing intensity in the central Pacific's remote northern Line Islands, including a nearly pristine, baseline coral reef system, we found that changes in predation risk elicit strong behavioral responses in foraging patterns across multiple prey fish species. These responses were observed as a function of both short-term ("acute") risk and longer-term ("chronic") risk, as well as when prey were exposed to model predators to isolate the effect of perceived predation risk from other potentially confounding factors. Compared to numerical prey responses, antipredator behavioral responses such as these can potentially have far greater net impacts (by occurring over entire assemblages) and operate over shorter temporal scales (with potentially instantaneous response times) in transmitting top-down effects. A rich body of literature exists on both the direct effects of human removal of predators from ecosystems and predators' effects on prey behavior. Our results draw together these lines of research and provide the first empirical evidence that large-scale human removal of predators from a natural ecosystem indirectly alters prey behavior. These behavioral changes may, in turn, drive previously unsuspected alterations in reef food webs.     

Counterintuitive effects of large-scale predator removal on a midlatitude rodent community

Historically, small mammals have been focal organisms for studying predator-prey dynamics, principally because of interest in explaining the drivers of the cyclical dynamics exhibited by northern vole, lemming, and hare populations. However, many small-mammal species occur at relatively low and fairly stable densities at temperate latitudes, and our understanding of how complex predator assemblages influence the abundance and dynamics of these species is surprisingly limited. In an intact grassland ecosystem in western Montana, USA, we examined the abundance and dynamics of Columbian ground squirrels (Spermophilus columbianus), deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus), and montane voles (Microtus montanus) on 1-ha plots where we excluded mammalian and avian predators and ungulates, excluded ungulates alone, or allowed predators and ungulates full access. Our goal was to determine whether the relatively low population abundance and moderate population fluctuations of these rodents were due to population suppression by predators. Our predator-exclusion treatment was divided into two phases: a phase where we excluded all predators except weasels (Mustela spp.; 2002-2005), and a phase where all predators including weasels were excluded (2006-2009). Across the entire duration of the experiment, predator and/or ungulate exclusion had no effect on the abundance or overall dynamics of ground squirrels and deer mice. Ground squirrel survival (the only species abundant enough to accurately estimate survival) was also unaffected by our experimental treatments. Prior to weasel exclusion, predators also had no impacts on montane vole abundance or dynamics. However, after weasel exclusion, vole populations reached greater population peaks, and there was greater recruitment of young animals on predator-exclusion plots compared to plots open to predators during peak years. These results suggest that the impacts of predators cannot be generalized across all rodents in an assemblage. Furthermore, they suggest that specialist predators can play an important role in suppressing vole abundance even in lower-latitude vole populations that occur at relatively low densities.     

The relationship between maternal phenotype and offspring quality: do older mothers really produce the best offspring?

Maternal effects are increasingly recognized as important drivers of population dynamics and determinants of evolutionary trajectories. Recently, there has been a proliferation of studies finding or citing a positive relationship between maternal size/age and offspring size or offspring quality. The relationship between maternal phenotype and offspring size is intriguing in that it is unclear why young mothers should produce offspring of inferior quality or fitness. Here we evaluate the underlying evolutionary pressures that may lead to a maternal size/age-offspring size correlation and consider the likelihood that such a correlation results in a positive relationship between the age or size of mothers and the fitness of their offspring. We find that, while there are a number of reasons why selection may favor the production of larger offspring by larger mothers, this change in size is more likely due to associated changes in the maternal phenotype that affect the offspring size-performance relationship. We did not find evidence that the offspring of older females should have intrinsically higher fitness. When we explored this issue theoretically, the only instance in which smaller mothers produce suboptimal offspring sizes is when a (largely unsupported) constraint on maximum offspring size is introduced into the model. It is clear that larger offspring fare better than smaller offspring when reared in the same environment, but this misses a critical point: different environments elicit selection for different optimal sizes of young. We suggest that caution should be exercised when interpreting the outcome of offspring-size experiments when offspring from different mothers are reared in a common environment, because this approach may remove the source of selection (e.g., reproducing in different context) that induced a shift in offspring size in the first place. It has been suggested that fish stocks should be managed to preserve these older age classes because larger mothers produce offspring with a greater chance of survival and subsequent recruitment. Overall, we suggest that, while there are clear and compelling reasons for preserving older females in exploited populations, there is little theoretical justification or evidence that older mothers produce offspring with higher per capita fitness than do younger mothers.     

Parasitism as a determinant of community structure on intertidal flats

The burrowing and movement ability of the New Zealand cockle Austrovenus stutchburyi is reduced when infected by echinostome trematodes. Previous experimental evidence from a single site suggests that this parasite-induced behavioural change of a key bivalve can affect the structure of the surrounding benthic community. By using multiple regression analyses on data collected from 17 intertidal flats, we here show that cockle parasitism is associated with macrozoobenthic community structure on a larger spatial scale. Regressions were performed for animal abundance, biomass, species diversity and species richness separately, entering cockle parasitism (infection intensity), presence/absence of ghost shrimps (Callianassa filholi), cockle density, primary producer abundance and organic content, particle size, sorting coefficient and gravel content of the substrate as predictors. Next to ghost shrimps, cockle parasitism was the best predictor of animal abundance by affecting (mainly positively) 8 of the 49 most widespread species significantly. Cockle parasitism was also associated with the biomass of anthozoans (positively), nemerteans (negatively) and bivalves (positively), whereas overall animal biomass was positively related to the sorting coefficient of the substrate. Species diversity was positively associated with cockle parasitism and gravel content of the substrate. Species richness was significantly associated with cockle parasitism (positively), ghost shrimps (negatively) and abundance of primary producers (positively) in combination. The impact of cockle parasitism on benthic community structure is believed governed directly or indirectly by (1) reduced sediment disturbance, (2) increased surface structural complexity and (3) availability of larval trematodes as an additional food source.     

Rookery Bay and Naples Bay circulation simulations: Applications to tides and fresh water inflow regulation

A three-dimensional, baroclinic numerical circulation model is applied to the combined Rookery Bay and Naples Bay estuary complex. We focus on two aspects of the model simulations: the tidal circulation, for which we have observations of sea level and currents at several stations spanning Rookery Bay, and the salinity variations, for which we have observations at one station. After establishing model veracity through quantitative comparisons with observations, we use the model to address salinity changes that could arise due to regulatory fresh water flow rate modifications. Two different sets of experiments are performed. The first considers the salinity changes in Rookery Bay by increasing the fresh water flow rates into Henderson Creek through the addition of either 1.4 m³/s or 2.8 m³/s to the ambient flow rates. The second considers the salinity changes in Naples Bay by decreasing the fresh water flow rates through the subtraction of 9.9 m³/s from the Golden Gate Canals’ ambient flow rates. All of these scenarios result in significant, quantifiable salinity changes within the Rookery Bay and Naples Bay estuary complexes, demonstrating the environmental management utility of using high resolution, three-dimensional, numerical circulation models, as applied herein, for assessing the water properties of complex, multi-connected estuarine systems.     

Evaluating the ecological benefits of wildfire by integrating fire and ecosystem simulation models

Fire managers are now realizing that wildfires can be beneficial because they can reduce hazardous fuels and restore fire-dominated ecosystems. A software tool that assesses potential beneficial and detrimental ecological effects from wildfire would be helpful to fire management. This paper presents a simulation platform called FLEAT (Fire and Landscape Ecology Assessment Tool) that integrates several existing landscape- and stand-level simulation models to compute an ecologically based measure that describes if a wildfire is moving the burning landscape towards or away from the historical range and variation of vegetation composition. FLEAT uses a fire effects model to simulate fire severity, which is then used to predict vegetation development for 1, 10, and 100 years into the future using a landscape simulation model. The landscape is then simulated for 5000 years using parameters derived from historical data to create an historical time series that is compared to the predicted landscape composition at year 1, 10, and 100 to compute a metric that describes their similarity to the simulated historical conditions. This tool is designed to be used in operational wildfire management using the LANDFIRE spatial database so that fire managers can decide how aggressively to suppress wildfires. Validation of fire severity predictions using field data from six wildfires revealed that while accuracy is moderate (30-60%), it is mostly dictated by the quality of GIS layers input to FLEAT. Predicted 1-year landscape compositions were only 8% accurate but this was because the LANDFIRE mapped pre-fire composition accuracy was low (21%). This platform can be integrated into current readily available software products to produce an operational tool for balancing benefits of wildfire with potential dangers.     

Female chacma baboons form strong, equitable, and enduring social bonds

Analyses of the pattern of associations, social interactions, coalitions, and aggression among chacma baboons (Papio hamadryas ursinus) in the Okavango Delta of Botswana over a 16-year period indicate that adult females form close, equitable, supportive, and enduring social relationships. They show strong and stable preferences for close kin, particularly their own mothers and daughters. Females also form strong attachments to unrelated females who are close to their own age and who are likely to be paternal half-sisters. Although absolute rates of aggression among kin are as high as rates of aggression among nonkin, females are more tolerant of close relatives than they are of others with whom they have comparable amounts of contact. These findings complement previous work which indicates that the strength of social bonds enhances the fitness of females in this population and support findings about the structure and function of social bonds in other primate groups.