Economic and Ecological Rules for Water Quality Trading1

Horan, Richard D. and James S. Shortle, 2011. Economic and Ecological Rules for Water Quality Trading. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(1):59‐69. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2010.00463.x Abstract: Emissions trading in textbook form uses markets to achieve pollution targets cost‐efficiently. This result is accomplished in markets that regulators can implement without knowing pollution abatement costs. The theoretical promise of emissions trading, along with real‐world success stories from air emissions trading, has led to initiatives to use trading for water pollution control. Yet, trading, particularly when it involves nonpoint sources of pollution, requires significant departures from the textbook concept. This paper explores how features of water quality problems affect the design of markets for water pollution control relative to textbook emissions markets. Three fundamental design tasks that regulators must address for pollution trading to achieve an environmental goal at low cost are examined: (1) defining the point and nonpoint commodities to be traded, (2) defining rules governing commodity exchange, and (3) setting caps on the commodity supplies so as to achieve an environmental target. We show that the way in which these tasks are optimally addressed for water quality markets differs significantly from the textbook model and its real‐world analogs. We also show that the fundamental appeal of emissions trading is lost in the case of realistic water quality markets, as market designs that reduce the costs of achieving water quality goals may no longer be implementable without the regulatory authority having information on abatement costs.     

Leaf quality, predators, and stochastic processes in the assembly of a diverse herbivore community

Ecological communities are structured by both deterministic, niche-based processes and stochastic processes such as dispersal. A pressing issue in ecology is to determine when and for which organisms each of these types of processes is important in community assembly. The roles of deterministic and stochastic processes have been studied for a variety of communities, but very few researchers have addressed their contribution to insect herbivore community structure. Insect herbivore niches are often described as largely shaped by the antagonistic pressures of predation and host plant defenses. However host plants are frequently discrete patches of habitat, and their spatial arrangement can affect herbivore dispersal patterns. We studied the roles of predation, host plant quality, and host spatial proximity for the assembly of a diverse insect herbivore community on Quercus alba (white oak) across two growing seasons. We examined abundances of feeding guilds to determine if ecologically similar species responded similarly to variation in niches. Most guilds responded similarly to leaf quality, preferring high-nitrogen, low-tannin host plants, particularly late in the growing season, while bird predation had little impact on herbivore abundance. The communities on the high-quality plants tended to be larger and, in some cases, have greater species richness. We analyzed community composition by correlating indices of community similarity with predator presence, leaf quality similarity, and host plant proximity. Birds did not affect community composition. Community similarity was significantly associated with distance between host plants and uncorrelated with leaf quality similarity. Thus although leaf quality significantly affected the total abundance of herbivores on a host plant, in some cases leading to increased species richness, dispersal limitation may weaken this relationship. The species composition of these communities may be driven by stochastic processes rather than variation in host plant characteristics or differential predation by insectivorous birds.     

Light-stress avoidance mechanisms in a Sphagnum-dominated wet coastal Arctic tundra ecosystem in Alaska

The Arctic experiences a high-radiation environment in the summer with 24-hour daylight for more than two months. Damage to plants and ecosystem metabolism can be muted by overcast conditions common in much of the Arctic. However, with climate change, extreme dry years and clearer skies could lead to the risk of increased photoxidation and photoinhibition in Arctic primary producers. Mosses, which often exceed the NPP of vascular plants in Arctic areas, are often understudied. As a result, the effect of specific environmental factors, including light, on these growth forms is poorly understood. Here, we investigated net ecosystem exchange (NEE) at the ecosystem scale, net Sphagnum CO2 exchange (NSE), and photoinhibition to better understand the impact of light on carbon exchange from a moss-dominated coastal tundra ecosystem during the summer season 2006. Sphagnum photosynthesis showed photoinhibition early in the season coupled with low ecosystem NEE. However, later in the season, Sphagnum maintained a significant CO2 uptake, probably for the development of subsurface moss layers protected from strong radiation. We suggest that the compact canopy structure of Sphagnum reduces light penetration to the subsurface layers of the moss mat and thereby protects the active photosynthetic tissues from damage. This stress avoidance mechanism allowed Sphagnum to constitute a significant percentage (up to 60%) of the ecosystem net daytime CO2 uptake at the end of the growing season despite the high levels of radiation experienced.     

Improving occupancy estimation when two types of observational error occur: non-detection and species misidentification

Efforts to draw inferences about species occurrence frequently account for false negatives, the common situation when individuals of a species are not detected even when a site is occupied. However, recent studies suggest the need to also deal with false positives, which occur when species are misidentified so that a species is recorded as detected when a site is unoccupied. Bias in estimators of occupancy, colonization, and extinction can be severe when false positives occur. Accordingly, we propose models that simultaneously account for both types of error. Our approach can be used to improve estimates of occupancy for study designs where a subset of detections is of a type or method for which false positives can be assumed to not occur. We illustrate properties of the estimators with simulations and data for three species of frogs. We show that models that account for possible misidentification have greater support (lower AIC for two species) and can yield substantially different occupancy estimates than those that do not. When the potential for misidentification exists, researchers should consider analytical techniques that can account for this source of error, such as those presented here.     

Use of the superpopulation approach to estimate breeding population size: an example in asynchronously breeding birds

Many populations of animals are fluid in both space and time, making estimation of numbers difficult. Much attention has been devoted to estimation of bias in detection of animals that are present at the time of survey. However, an equally important problem is estimation of population size when all animals are not present on all survey occasions. Here, we showcase use of the superpopulation approach to capture-recapture modeling for estimating populations where group membership is asynchronous, and where considerable overlap in group membership among sampling occasions may occur. We estimate total population size of long-legged wading bird (Great Egret and White Ibis) breeding colonies from aerial observations of individually identifiable nests at various times in the nesting season. Initiation and termination of nests were analogous to entry and departure from a population. Estimates using the superpopulation approach were 47-382% larger than peak aerial counts of the same colonies. Our results indicate that the use of the superpopulation approach to model nesting asynchrony provides a considerably less biased and more efficient estimate of nesting activity than traditional methods. We suggest that this approach may also be used to derive population estimates in a variety of situations where group membership is fluid.     

Local richness along gradients in the Siskiyou herb flora: R. H. Whittaker revisited

In his classic study in the Siskiyou Mountains (Oregon, USA), one of the most botanically rich forested regions in North America, R. H. Whittaker (1960) foreshadowed many modern ideas on the multivariate control of local species richness along environmental gradients related to productivity. Using a structural equation model to analyze his data, which were never previously statistically analyzed, we demonstrate that Whittaker was remarkably accurate in concluding that local herb richness in these late-seral forests is explained to a large extent by three major abiotic gradients (soils, topography, and elevation), and in turn, by the effects of these gradients on tree densities and the numbers of individual herbs. However, while Whittaker also clearly appreciated the significance of large-scale evolutionary and biogeographic influences on community composition, he did not fully articulate the more recent concept that variation in the species richness of local communities could be explained in part by variation in the sizes of regional species pools. Our model of his data is among the first to use estimates of regional species pool size to explain variation in local community richness along productivity-related gradients. We find that regional pool size, combined with a modest number of other interacting abiotic and biotic factors, explains most of the variation in local herb richness in the Siskiyou biodiversity hotspot.     

Ontic openness: An absolute necessity for all developmental processes

The physicist Walter M. Elsasser is mostly known for his work on the Earth's magnetism. Less attention has been paid to his efforts toward identifying what are the real differences between physical and biological systems. One essential distinction he recognized was that physical systems are largely homogenous while biological systems always revealed what he called ordered heterogeneity. Calculation of the possible configurations of such heterogeneous systems almost always leads to combinatorial explosions and to what Elsasser referred to as immense numbers. Such calculations have the consequence that any such systems are necessarily unique - mathematically speaking they represent one-sets.Another consequence is that immense numbers automatically introduce enormous uncertainty and indeterminacy into the system. Such systems are said to be ontically open. Applying this perspective to the genome and employing the notion of informational entropy reveals a common drive behind all development. This means that both conventional Darwinian evolution as well as the genomic mistakes that are believed to lie behind processes like aging and diseases can be interpreted against the background of one and the same process.At the same time the approach demonstrates how Darwinian evolution encompasses other notions such as Kauffman's “adjacent possible” ( [Kauffman, 1995] and [Kauffman, 2000]) and Eldrege's and Gould's “evolution via punctuated equilibria” (e.g., [Eldredge and Gould, 1972] and [Gould and Eldredge, 1977]).     

The effects of forest harvest intensity in combination with wind disturbance on carbon dynamics in Lake States Mesic Forests

Total forest carbon (C) storage is determined by succession, disturbances, climate, and the edaphic properties of a site or region. Forest harvesting substantially affects C dynamics; these effects may be amplified if forest harvesting is intensified to provide biofuel feedstock. We tested the effects of harvest intensity on landscape C using a simulation modeling approach that included C dynamics, multiple disturbances, and successional changes in composition. We developed a new extension for the LANDIS-II forest landscape disturbance and succession model that incorporates belowground soil C dynamics derived from the CENTURY soil model. The extension was parameterized and calibrated using data from an experimental forest in northeastern Wisconsin, USA. We simulated a 9800 ha forested landscape over 400 years with wind disturbance combined with no harvesting, harvesting with residual slash left on site (‘standard harvest’), and whole-tree harvesting. We also simulated landscapes without wind disturbance and without eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis) to examine the effects of detrital quantity and quality on C dynamics. We estimated changes in live C, detrital C, soil organic C, total C, and forest composition. Overall, the simulations without harvesting had substantially greater total C and continued to sequester C. Standard harvest simulations had more C than the whole tree harvest simulations. Under both harvest regimes, C accrual was not evident after 150 years. Without hemlock, SOC was reduced due to a decline in detritus and a shift in detrital chemistry. In conclusion, if the intensity of harvesting increases we can expect a corresponding reduction in potential C storage. Compositional changes due to historic circumstances (loss of hemlock) may also affect forest C although to a lesser degree than harvesting. The modeling approach presented enabled us to consider multiple, interacting drivers of landscape change and the subsequent changes in forest C.     

A Perspective on Nonstationarity and Water Management1

Hirsch, Robert M., 2011. A Perspective on Nonstationarity and Water Management. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(3):436‐446. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00539.x Abstract: This essay offers some perspectives on climate‐related nonstationarity and water resources. Hydrologists must not lose sight of the many sources of nonstationarity, recognizing that many of them may be of much greater magnitude than those that may arise from climate change. It is paradoxical that statistical and deterministic approaches give us better insights about changes in mean conditions than about the tails of probability distributions, and yet the tails are very important to water management. Another paradox is that it is difficult to distinguish between long‐term hydrologic persistence and trend. Using very long hydrologic records is helpful in mitigating this problem, but does not guarantee success. Empirical approaches, using long‐term hydrologic records, should be an important part of the portfolio of research being applied to understand the hydrologic response to climate change. An example presented here shows very mixed results for trends in the size of the annual floods, with some strong clusters of positive trends and a strong cluster of negative trends. The potential for nonstationarity highlights the importance of the continuity of hydrologic records, the need for repeated analysis of the data as the time series grow, and the need for a well‐trained cadre of scientists and engineers, ready to interpret the data and use those analyses to help adjust the management of our water resources.