Development of a probabilistic blood lead prediction model

A partially probabilistic blood lead prediction model has been developed, based on the US Environmental Protection Agency integrated exposure-uptake-biokinetic blood lead model (IEUBK model). This study translated the IEUBK model into a spreadsheet format. The uptake submodel incorporates uncertainty distributions for exposure and bioavailability parameters. The biokinetic submodel is duplicated with a table incorporating partitioning and decay of lead levels in the body. As a case study, the probabilistic model is applied to a lead exposure scenario involving a former smelter site in Sandy, Utah. The probabilistic model produces less biased estimates of means and standard deviations than the deterministic model. Parameter uncertainty is propagated in the model by the use of Monte Carlo simulation. Thus, sensitivity analysis is possible, and driving variables can be determined.     

Genetic monogamy in the common loon (Gavia immer)

We conducted behavioral observations and genetic analysis on breeding pairs of common loons in the upper Great Lakes region from 1993 through 1995 to look for behavioral evidence of extrapair copulations (EPCs) and to determine parentage of young. Pairs remained close to each other (usually within 20 m) during the pre-laying period, leaving little opportunity for EPCs to occur. Males and females both maintained physical proximity by approaching each other when they became separated. Copulations were obvious but infrequent, occurring about once every other day during the pre-laying period. Multilocus DNA fingerprinting was consistent with behavioral findings: 58 young from 47 different families were all genetic offspring of parents that raised them. Perfect genetic monogamy (genetic parentage of young by parents that rear them) in loons might arise as a consequence of the need for vigorous territorial defense to prevent territorial takeover. Received: 8 August 1996 / Accepted after revision: 22 March 1997     

A molecular genetic analysis of social structure, dispersal, and interpack relationships of the African wild dog (Lycaon pictus )

The African wild dog is a highly social, pack-living predator of the African woodland and savannah. The archetypal wild dog pack consists of a single dominant breeding pair, their offspring, and non-breeding adults who are either offspring or siblings of one of the breeding pair. Non-breeding adults cooperate in hunting, provisioning and the protection of young. From these observations follows the prediction that the genetic structure of wild dogs packs should resemble that of a multigenerational family, with all same-sexed adults and offspring within a pack related as sibs or half-sibs. Additionally, a higher kinship between females from neighboring packs should be evident if females tend to have small dispersal distances relative to males. We test these predictions through analysis of mitochondrial DNA control region sequences and 14 microsatellite loci in nine wild dog packs from Kruger National Park, Republic of South Africa. We show that as predicted, African wild dog packs generally consist of an unrelated alpha male and female, subdominant close relatives, and offspring of the breeding pair. Sub-dominant wild dogs occasionally reproduce but their offspring rarely survive to 1 year of age. Relatedness influences the timing and location of dispersal events as dispersal events frequently coincide with a change in pack dominance hierarchy and dispersers often move to areas with a high proportion of close relatives. Received: 22 February 1996 / Accepted after revision: 16 November 1996     

Predation risk,food deprivation and non-random mating by size in the stream water strider,Aquarius remigis

Summary Non-random mating by size (NRMS) plays a central role in the study of sexual selection and the evolution of mating systems. Theory suggests that NRMS should be influenced by conflicting demands (e.g., predation risk, hunger); few experimental studies, however, have addressed these effects. We used a factorial experiment to examine the influence of predatory green sunfish and food deprivation on NRMS in male and female stream water striders, Aquarius remigis. As predicted by theory, food deprivation decreased the large-male mating advantage. The influence of predation risk, however, went against existing theory; that is, risk increased the large male mating advantage. The degree of large-male mating advantage was negatively related to a measure of the rate of male harassment of females. A behavioral mechanism that can explain these patterns emphasizes the contrasting effects of different competing demands on male harassment rates, female resistance and the role of male size in overcoming female resistance. Females usually resist male mating attempts. Successful mating occurs when males overcome female resistance. If harassment rates (of females by males) are low, larger males have a mating advantage over smaller males perhaps because females resist heavily and thus only larger males can overcome female resistance. If, however, male harassment rates are very high, female resistance might be swamped; mating should then be more random with respect to male size. Food deprivation increases gerrid activity and thus increases harassment rates which should then reduce NRMS. In contrast, risk decreases gerrid activity, thus decreasing harassment rates and increasing NRMS. Females did not show significant NRMS. Females did, however, show a pattern of change in NRMS that is consistent with male choice for larger females. Correspondence to: A. Sih     

Maximization of foraging efficiency and resource defense by group retrieval in the ant Formica schaufussi

Summary Workers of the ant Formica schaufussi forage as individuals and cooperate in groups to retrieve arthropod prey. In 2 sample years, group-transported prey were on average 6.8 and 4.7 times heavier than individually retrieved items, and the average loading ratios of groups were greater than the loading ratios of single foragers. Retrieval group size was adjusted to prey size, and prey transport velocity for individuals and groups tended to decrease with increasing prey weight. The efficiency of individual and group retrieval, estimated from calculations of the prey delivery rate to the nest (PDR) achieved by each foraging mode, varied as a function of prey size. Individual retrieval maximized PDR at a prey weight of 19.5 mg, and group transport maximized PDR at 190 mg. Although the PDR maxima of an individual in a group and a solitary forager were approximately equal, depending on prey size, group transport may maximize foraging efficiency. Group transport also decreased interference competition from sympatric ant species. Group-transported prey having a greater likelihood of successful retrieval were within the size range of prey that maximized foraging efficiency. Transport group size appeared to be more important in prey defense than in increasing prey transport velocity, suggesting an important role of group size in competitive ability.Offprint requests to: J.F.A. Traniello     

Sexual selection and the tail ornaments of North American barn swallows

Summary In this study conducted in southeastern Ontario, Canada, we manipulated the length of outer tail feathers (streamers) of male barn swallows (Hirundo rustica) shortly after they returned to four small breeding colonies in the spring. Both streamers on most males in these colonies were experimentally either lengthened or shortened by 20 mm and as a result 10 randomly chosen males of each category had their streamer lengths manipulated before the fertile period of their mate. Males with elongated streamers had a significantly shorter pre-laying period (from arrival until first egg date) than those with shortened streamers and we interpret this as indicating that they obtained their mates more rapidly. Females mated to elongated males had significantly longer tails and laid their first egg significantly earlier than those mated to shortened males; no other indices of reproductive success differed between these two experimental groups. These results provide some support for previous work suggesting that females prefer males with longer streamers and thus that streamer length in this species is under the influence of sexual selection. We also found that males with longer natural streamers were significantly more likely to break them and that males were much more likely to break their streamers than were females. Since males participate in incubation in North America but not in Europe, we suggest that the aerodynamic disadvantages of streamer breakage that result from incubation attentiveness are at least partly responsible for the shorter streamer length of males in North America. Offprint requests to: R. Montgomerie