户外测试检验加速测试

探讨了加速老化测试存在的问题,阐述了户外暴露测试的重要性,指出应该利用户外暴露测试来检验加速老化。使用正确的测试程序,户外暴露测试．-j-~在较短的时间内获得较好的测试结果。采用正确的测试设计、恰当的评估方法、可靠的统计分析及应用参照样品等,可使测试者确定加速程度及加速测试与户外暴露测试的相关系数,以确保加速测试结果的正确性。     

Variation partitioning involving orthogonal spatial eigenfunction submodels

When partitioning the variation of univariate or multivariate ecological data with respect to several submodels of spatial eigenfunctions (e.g., Moran's eigenvector maps, MEM) acting as explanatory data, a problem occurs: although the submodels are constructed to be orthogonal to one another, the partitioning based on adjusted R2 statistics produces nonzero values in the intersections between spatial submodels. This phenomenon is described and two solutions are proposed. The first solution is to apportion the intersection fractions proportionally to the variation explained by each submodel. The second solution consists in creating a hierarchy among the spatial submodels, in accordance with hierarchy theory. These solutions lead to new partitioning equations that are described in the Appendix. R functions are provided to carry out partitioning with respect to environmental variables and spatial eigenfunction submodels. This development is important for the correct interpretation of spatial modeling results implying explanatory environmental data as well as submodels of spatial eigenfunctions involving two or more spatial scales.     

Uncertain sightings and the extinction of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker

The extinction of a species can be inferred from a record of its sightings. Existing methods for doing so assume that all sightings in the record are valid. Often, however, there are sightings of uncertain validity. To date, uncertain sightings have been treated in an ad hoc way, either excluding them from the record or including them as if they were certain. We developed a Bayesian method that formally accounts for such uncertain sightings. The method assumes that valid and invalid sightings follow independent Poisson processes and use noninformative prior distributions for the rate of valid sightings and for a measure of the quality of uncertain sightings. We applied the method to a recently published record of sightings of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker (Campephilus principalis). This record covers the period 1897-2010 and contains 39 sightings classified as certain and 29 classified as uncertain. The Bayes factor in favor of extinction was 4.03, which constitutes substantial support for extinction. The posterior distribution of the time of extinction has 3 main modes in 1944, 1952, and 1988. The method can be applied to sighting records of other purportedly extinct species.     

Statistical analysis of multidimensional fuzzy set ordinations

A protocol for the creation and statistical analysis of multidimensional fuzzy set ordinations (MFSO) is presented, including a simple forward stepwise variable selection algorithm and goodness-of-fit statistics. Mapping sample point distributions from the fuzzy topological space of fuzzy set ordination (FSO) to a Euclidean space enables analysis by a broad range of parametric statistical methods. The results obtained exhibit immediate interpretability, as each axis in an MFSO represents a single environmental variable and is orthogonal to all other axes by design. MFSO is tested on five data sets: three simulated coenospaces, and vegetation data from Bryce Canyon National Park, Utah, USA, and the Shoshone National Forest, Wyoming, USA. The resulting ordinations on the test data sets achieve (1) high efficiency in representing the underlying dissimilarity matrix in low dimensionality (> 90% of the efficiency of principal coordinates analysis); (2) a high level of fidelity in reconstructing the location and configuration of samples in the simulated coenospaces; (3) a high level of resistance to noise in vegetation or environment data; and (4) a low level of sensitivity to sample size or placement along simulated environmental gradients. Environmental variable effect sizes are easily estimated, and probabilities of observing the results obtained are easily calculated by parametric distributions or permutation statistics.     

Multimodal signals increase active space of communication by wolf spiders in a complex litter environment

Multimodal signals may compensate for environmental constraints on communication, as signals in different modalities vary in efficacy. We examined the influence of complex microhabitats on transmission of vibratory and visual signals of courting male Schizocosa ocreata wolf spiders (Araneae: Lycosidae) with laser Doppler vibrometry (LDV) and behavioral observations in lab and field. We measured maximum potential detection distance of visual and vibratory signals by females in laboratory mesocosms, recorded vibration signal attenuation on different substrates, and estimated transmission distances for male vibration signals in the field. We also determined effective line-of-sight visual detection distances in the field with laser distance measures. Together, these data were used to estimate the potential and effective active space of multimodal signals. LDV measures show leaves are highly conductive substrates for wolf spider vibratory signals compared to others (soil, wood, rock). For both visual and vibratory modes, lab estimates of maximum potential distance for signal transmission and detection (behavior studies) exceeded estimates of effective active space (signal attenuation, “vanishing point,” and “line-of-sight” measures). Field estimates of transmission distance for signal modes overlap, such that in close range (<20 cm), vibratory signals are more likely to be detected, while farther away, visual signals are more likely to be seen. These findings thus support current hypotheses regarding how multimodal communication might extend the range of overall signal active space or compensate for environmental constraints.     

Understanding the drivers of expert opinion when classifying species as extinct

The criteria as laid out by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List are the gold standard by which the extinction risk of a species is assessed and where appropriate biological extinctions are declared. However, unlike all other categories, the category of extinct lacks a quantitative framework for assigning this category. Given its subjective nature, we surveyed expert assessors working on a diversity of taxa to explore the attributes they used to declare a species extinct. Using a choice experiment approach, we surveyed 674 experts from the IUCN Species Survival Commission specialist groups and taskforces. Data availability, time from the last sighting, detectability, habitat availability, and population decline were all important attributes favored by assessors when inferring extinction. Respondents with red-listing experience assigned more importance to the attributes data availability, time from the last sighting, and detectability when considering a species extinction, whereas those respondents working with well-known taxa gave more importance to the time from the last sighting. Respondents with no red-listing experience and those working with more well-known taxa (i.e., mammals and birds) were overall less likely to consider species extinct. Our findings on the importance assessors place on attributes used to declare a species extinct provide a basis for informing the development of specific criteria for more accurately assessing species extinctions.     

Poultry litter application to loblolly pine forests: growth and nutrient containment

Forestland application of poultry manure offers an alternative to the conventional practice of pastureland application. Before such a practice is considered viable, however, it must be demonstrated that the forest ecosystem is capable of absorbing the nutrients contained in poultry manure, especially nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P). From the forestry perspective, it must also be demonstrated that tree growth is not diminished. We investigated these questions using loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) stands growing in central Mississippi in an area of high poultry production. Stockpiled broiler litter was applied to newly thinned, 8-yr-old stands at 0, 4.6, and 18.6 dry Mg ha-1, supplying 0, 200, and 800 kg N ha-1 and 0, 92, and 370 kg P ha-1, respectively. Levels of nitrate in soil water, monitored at a 50-cm depth with porous cup tension lysimeters, exceeded 10 mg N L-1 during the first two years after application in the 18.6 Mg ha-1 rate but only on two occasions in the first year for the lower rate of application. Phosphate was largely absent from lysimeter water in all treatments. Other macronutrients (K, Ca, Mg, S) were elevated in lysimeter water in proportion to litter application rates. Soil extractable nitrate showed similar trends to lysimeter water, with substantial elevation during the first year following application for the 18.6 Mg ha-1 rate. Mehlich III-extractable phosphate peaked in excess of 100 microg P g-1 soil during the third year of the study for the 18.6 Mg ha-1 rate. The 4.6 Mg ha-1 rate did not affect extractable soil P. Tree growth was increased by the poultry litter. Total stem cross-sectional area, or basal area, was approximately 20% greater after 2 yr for both rates of litter application. Overall, the nutrients supplied by the 4.6 Mg ha-1 rate were contained by the pine forest and resulted in favorable increases in tree growth. The higher rate, by contrast, did pose some risk to water quality through the mobilization of nitrate. These results show that, under the conditions of this study, application of poultry litter at moderate rates of approximately 5 Mg ha-1 to young stands of loblolly pine offers an alternative disposal option with minimal impacts to water quality and potential increases in tree growth.     

Cold comfort: Arctic seabirds find refugia from climate change and potential competition in marginal ice zones and fjords

Climate change alters species distributions by shifting their fundamental niche in space through time. Such effects may be exacerbated by increased inter-specific competition if climate alters species dominance where competitor ranges overlap. This study used census data, telemetry and stable isotopes to examine the population and foraging ecology of a pair of Arctic and temperate congeners across an extensive zone of sympatry in Iceland, where sea temperatures varied substantially. The abundance of Arctic Brünnich’s guillemot Uria lomvia declined with sea temperature. Accessibility of refugia in cold water currents or fjords helped support higher numbers and reduce rates of population decline. Competition with temperate Common guillemots Uria aalge did not affect abundance, but similarities in foraging ecology were sufficient to cause competition when resources are limiting. Continued warming is likely to lead to further declines of Brünnich’s guillemot, with implications for conservation status and ecosystem services.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01650-7.     

Modeling heterogeneous ClNO2 formation,chloride availability,and chlorine cycling in Southeast Texas

Nitryl Chloride (ClNO₂) mixing ratios above 1 ppbv have been measured off the coast of Southeast Texas. ClNO₂ formation, the result of heterogeneous N₂O₅ uptake on chloride-containing aerosols, has a significant impact on oxidant formation for the Houston area. This work reports on the modeling of ClNO₂ formation and describes the sensitivity of ClNO₂ formation to key parameters. Model sensitivity analyses found that: (1) Chloride availability limits the formation of nitryl chloride at ground level but not aloft; (2) When excess particulate chloride was assumed to be present at ground level through sea salt, ClNO₂ concentrations increased in some locations by a factor of 13, as compared to cases where sea salt chloride was assumed to be limited; (3) Inland formation of ClNO₂ seems feasible based on chloride availability and could have a large impact on total ClNO₂ formed in the region; and (4) ClNO₂ formation is quite sensitive to the assumed yield of ClNO₂ from N₂O₅ uptake. These results demonstrate that there is a need for further field studies to better understand the geographic extent of ClNO₂ formation and the atmospheric conditions which control partitioning of chloride into the particle phase. In addition, this work examined the role of ClNO₂ in the cycling of chlorine between chloride and reactive chlorine radicals. The modeling indicated that the majority of reactive chlorine in Texas along the Gulf coast is cycled through ClNO₂, demonstrating the importance of including ClNO₂ into photochemical models for this region.     

Use of statistical tools to evaluate the reductive dechlorination of high levels of TCE in microcosm studies

A large, multi-laboratory microcosm study was performed to select amendments for supporting reductive dechlorination of high levels of trichloroethylene (TCE) found at an industrial site in the United Kingdom (UK) containing dense non-aqueous phase liquid (DNAPL) TCE. The study was designed as a fractional factorial experiment involving 177 bottles distributed between four industrial laboratories and was used to assess the impact of six electron donors, bioaugmentation, addition of supplemental nutrients, and two TCE levels (0.57 and 1.90 mM or 75 and 250 mg/L in the aqueous phase) on TCE dechlorination. Performance was assessed based on the concentration changes of TCE and reductive dechlorination degradation products. The chemical data was evaluated using analysis of variance (ANOVA) and survival analysis techniques to determine both main effects and important interactions for all the experimental variables during the 203-day study. The statistically based design and analysis provided powerful tools that aided decision-making for field application of this technology. The analysis showed that emulsified vegetable oil (EVO), lactate, and methanol were the most effective electron donors, promoting rapid and complete dechlorination of TCE to ethene. Bioaugmentation and nutrient addition also had a statistically significant positive impact on TCE dechlorination. In addition, the microbial community was measured using phospholipid fatty acid analysis (PLFA) for quantification of total biomass and characterization of the community structure and quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) for enumeration of Dehalococcoides organisms (Dhc) and the vinyl chloride reductase (vcrA) gene. The highest increase in levels of total biomass and Dhc was observed in the EVO microcosms, which correlated well with the dechlorination results.