Innovative methods for emission inventory development and evaluation: workshop summary

Emission inventories are an essential tool for evaluating, managing, and regulating air pollution. Refinements and innovations in instruments that measure air pollutants, models that calculate emissions, and techniques for data management and uncertainty assessment are needed to enhance emission inventories. This workshop provided recommendations for improving emission factors, improving emission models, and reducing inventory uncertainty. Communication that increases cooperation between developers and users of inventories is essential. Emission inventories that incorporate these improvements will meet the challenges of the future.     

Background levels of non-ortho-substituted (coplanar) polychlorinated biphenyls in human serum of Missouri residents

This study characterizes the levels of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB) congeners PCB 77, PCB 81, PCB 126, and PCB 169, in a group of 150 men and women with no documented exposure to PCBs. Its purpose is to provide current referent levels of coplanar PCBs in Missouri residents and to compare those levels to levels reported in the literature from the United States and other countries. Although this study used an extensive questionnaire assessing potential sources of exposure, no positive relations were found between these exposure sources and participants' PCB levels. The PCB levels for the four congeners measured were lower than any reported in the literature. PCBs 126 and 169 are only two of the dioxin-like congeners; however, their contribution makes up 11% of the total TEQ. Age was significantly related to PCB 126 and PCB 169. For every one-year increase in age, both PCB congeners increased by approximately 0.4 parts per trillion (ppt). There was no gender difference for PCB 126; however, PCB 169 levels were 3 ppt higher in males than females.     

Qualitative and quantitative cancer risk assessment of 2, 3, 7, 8-tetrachloro-dibenzo-p-dioxin (2, 3, 7, 8-TCDD)

The carcinogenicity of 2,3,7,8-TCDD at multiple organ sites in animals has been well established by several cancer bioassays. Results of two of the most notable of these, the Kociba et al. (1978) rat feeding study and the National Toxicology Program (1980) gavage study in rats and mice showed hepatocellular carcinomas in two strains of female rats and male and female mice. Other tumor sites included carcinomas of the lung, tongue, hard palate and nasal turbinates, thyroid, and subcutaneous tissue. The evidence for carcinogenicity of 2,3,7,8-TCDD in animals is regarded as “sufficient” using the classification system of the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC).

Two Swedish epidemiologic case-control studies (Hardell and Sandstrom, 1979; Eriksson et al. 1979, 1981) reported a significant five- to sevenfold excess risk of soft-tissue sarcomas (STS) from occupational exposure to chlorinated phenoxyacetic acid herbicides and/or chlorophenols. Additionally, several small cohort studies collectively exhibited an unusual cluster of STS, significantly increased over combined expected incidence. Problems with these studies do not appear to be sufficient to discount this excess risk. The human evidence alone for the carcinogenicity of 2,3,7,8-TCDD is “inadequate” using the IARC classification. However, for 2,3,7,8-TCDD in combination with chlorinated phenoxyacetic acid herbicides and/or chlorophenols, the human evidence is considered to be “limited.” The overall evidence for carcinogenicity considering both animal and human studies would place 2,3,7,8-TCDD alone in the IARC category 2B, meaning that the substance is probably carcinogenic in humans. The overall weight of evidence for 2,3,7,8-TCDD in combination with chlorinated phenoxyacetic acid herbicides and/or chlorophenols is regarded as IARC category 2A, also meaning that they are probably carcinogenic for humans.

Using current EPA methodology for quantitatively estimating cancer risks, several animal data sets have been analyzed. Comparing the results, the upper-limit incremental unit risk estimate is 1.6 × 10⁻² for a lifetime exposure of 1 ng/kg/day. This estimate is derived from a lifetime feeding study (Kociba et al., 1978) in which 2,3,7,8-TCDD induced tumors of the liver, lungs, hard palate, and nasal turbinates in female rats. Incremental unit cancer risks are also extrapolated for lifetime 2,3,7,8-TCDD exposures in water and air. Based on continuous lifetime exposure to 1 ng/L 2,3,7,8-TCDD in drinking water, the upper-limit estimate of extra cancer risk per individual is 4.5 × 10⁻³. For lifetime exposure to 1 pg 2,3,7,8-TCDD/m³ in the ambient air, the upper-limit individual risk is 3.3 × 10⁻⁵.     

The stability of trophic mass-balance models of marine ecosystems: a comparative analysis

Dynamic simulations of 18

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mass-balance marine trophic models are used to explore the stability of systems when briefly impacted by a fishery on the key ‘wasp–waist' populations occurring at intermediate trophic levels. The results are related to different ecosystem goal functions previously identified as representative of three attributes of ecosystems development: community complexity, homeostasis and energetics. System recovery time, the time required for all functional groups to returns to baseline level, and here used as a measure of model stability, was inversely correlated to Finn's Cycling Index, i.e. to the fraction of ecosystem throughput that is recycled, and to the mean length of trophic pathways in the systems. Systems with higher capacity to recycle detritus are systems with a higher ability to recover from perturbations. The results are in agreement with the E.P. Odum's theory of ecosystem development, where recycling is interpreted as a chief positive feedback mechanism that contributes to stability in the mature systems by preventing overshoots and destructive oscillations due to external impacts.     

Variable sex ratio among colonies of ants

Summary Small colonies of ants often produce mostly male alates, while large colonies produce mostly female alates. I present a simple model consistent with this pattern in which males that compete for mates are related (Local Mate Competition). The model explains the observed trend even when relatedness among competing males is low, so that there is only a negligible effect on the predicted sex allocation ratio in the population. The reverse trend is expected when there is competition among related females for a limited resource, such as nest sites (Local Resource Competition); small broods are predicted to be mostly female and large broods are predicted to be mostly male.     

An experimental examination of female preference patterns for components of the male advertisement call in the quacking frog,<Emphasis Type="Italic"> Crinia georgiana</Emphasis>

Even though females prefer particular components of a male display, their preferences may not be expressed during mate choice. Here, we quantified female preference patterns in the frog Crinia georgiana for call rate, pulse number and dominant frequency using two-speaker trials. Females typically chose signals emitted at a higher rate, with more pulses (when variation was extreme) and with an average dominant frequency. The results for pulse number and call rate agree with a previous field study which found that these two call components explained significant variation in male mating success. In contrast, the strong preferences for average dominant frequencies detected here disagree with the previous field study which failed to find any relationship between dominant frequency and male mating success. To explain the discrepancy we investigated whether the patterns of female preference for dominant frequency changed when another property, call rate, was varied simultaneously. Most females chose the call with an average dominant frequency when offered a choice between a call with an average dominant frequency and call rate or a non-average dominant frequency (±2 SD) and high call rate. When the differences in dominant frequency were reduced (±1 SD), females showed no clear preference for either signal. Accordingly, female preference patterns for one call component can vary with the expression of another. These results do not explain why dominant frequency did not account for any variation in male mating success under field conditions.Communicated by T. Beschlitz     

Improving Habitat Models and Their Utility in Koala Conservation

Abstract: Models of what makes good koala habitat are a key to developing effective conservation policy and practices. Koala habitat models are based on (1) ecological studies of high-density koala populations in limited areas, (2) physiological studies of koala nutrition and characteristics of food plants, and (3) surveys of koala geographic distribution and biophysical features of forests and woodlands. The role of models in koala conservation varies because legislators, decisionmakers, land managers, and citizens have different expectations and uses for models. Although current habitat models address many of these needs, overall they lack sufficient certainty and authority to resolve disputes and develop policy. Unpublished and inadequately peer-reviewed data and models add to misinterpretation and argument. Improvements are needed in the decision-making process to increase the constructive involvement of all interest groups and to focus on the koala conservation problem, thereby reducing use of the popular media and courts of law to achieve objectives.