Strategic directions for agent-based modeling: avoiding the YAAWN syndrome

In this short communication, we examine how agent-based modeling has become common in land change science and is increasingly used to develop case studies for particular times and places. There is a danger that the research community is missing a prime opportunity to learn broader lessons from the use of agent-based modeling (ABM), or at the very least not sharing these lessons more widely. How do we find an appropriate balance between empirically rich, realistic models and simpler theoretically grounded models? What are appropriate and effective approaches to model evaluation in light of uncertainties not only in model parameters but also in model structure? How can we best explore hybrid model structures that enable us to better understand the dynamics of the systems under study, recognizing that no single approach is best suited to this task? Under what circumstances – in terms of model complexity, model evaluation, and model structure – can ABMs be used most effectively to lead to new insight for stakeholders? We explore these questions in the hope of helping the growing community of land change scientists using models in their research to move from ‘yet another model’ to doing better science with models.     

Genital morphology linked to social status in the bank vole (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Myodes glareolus</Emphasis>)

Since genital morphology can influence the outcome of post-copulatory sexual selection, differences in the genitalia of dominant and subordinate males could be a factor contributing to the fertilisation advantage of dominant males under sperm competition. Here we investigate for the first time if penile morphology differs according to male social status in a promiscuous mammal, the bank vole (Myodes glareolus). In this species, dominant males typically achieve higher reproductive success than subordinates in post-copulatory sexual selection, and male genital morphology is complex, including both a baculum (os penis) and penile spines. Our results show that despite no difference in body size associated with male social status, baculum width is significantly larger in dominant male bank voles than in subordinates. We also found evidence of positive allometry and a relatively high coefficient of phenotypic variation in the baculum width of male bank voles, consistent with an influence of sexual selection. By contrast, baculum length and three measures of penile spinosity did not differ according to male social status or show evidence of positive allometry. We conclude that dominant male bank voles may benefit from an enlarged baculum under sperm competition and/or cryptic female choice and that differences in penile morphology according to male social status might be important but as yet largely unexplored source of variation in male reproductive success.     

Identification of distinct movement patterns in Pacific leatherback turtle populations influenced by ocean conditions

Interactions with fisheries are believed to be a major cause of mortality for adult leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea), which is of particular concern in the Pacific Ocean, where they have been rapidly declining. In order to identify where these interactions are occurring and how they may be reduced, it is essential first to understand the movements and behavior of leatherback turtles. There are two regional nesting populations in the East Pacific (EP) and West Pacific (WP), comprising multiple nesting sites. We synthesized tracking data from the two populations and compared their movement patterns. A switching state-space model was applied to 135 Argos satellite tracks to account for observation error, and to distinguish between migratory and area-restricted search behaviors. The tracking data, from the largest leatherback data set ever assembled, indicated that there was a high degree of spatial segregation between EP and WP leatherbacks. Area-restricted search behavior mainly occurred in the southeast Pacific for the EP leatherbacks, whereas the WP leatherbacks had several different search areas in the California Current, central North Pacific, South China Sea, off eastern Indonesia, and off southeastern Australia. We also extracted remotely sensed oceanographic data and applied a generalized linear mixed model to determine if leatherbacks exhibited different behavior in relation to environmental variables. For the WP population, the probability of area-restricted search behavior was positively correlated with chlorophyll-a concentration. This response was less strong in the EP population, but these turtles had a higher probability of search behavior where there was greater Ekman upwelling, which may increase the transport of nutrients and consequently prey availability. These divergent responses to oceanographic conditions have implications for leatherback vulnerability to fisheries interactions and to the effects of climate change. The occurrence of leatherback turtles within both coastal and pelagic areas means they have a high risk of exposure to many different fisheries, which may be very distant from their nesting sites. The EP leatherbacks have more limited foraging grounds than the WP leatherbacks, which could make them more susceptible to any temperature or prey changes that occur in response to climate change.     

Movements,environmental associations,and presumed spawning locations of Atlantic halibut (Hippoglossus hippoglossus) in the northwest Atlantic determined using archival satellite pop-up tags

Large Atlantic halibut (Hippoglossus hippoglossus) off the eastern coast of Canada were tagged with pop-up satellite archival transmission tags (N = 17) to track movements, determine ambient depth and temperature, and infer spawning activity. Many halibut showed seasonal movements from deepwater slope areas in fall and winter to shallower feeding grounds on the Scotian Shelf and Grand Banks in summer. Halibut depths ranged between 0 and 1,640 m. Mean temperature of occupation was 4.7 °C. Multiple short-term vertical ascents from a consistent baseline depth, characterized as spawning rises, were identified in seven of the tagged halibut south of the Grand Banks. All presumed spawning rises occurred in multiples of 2–6 events at 2- to 9-day intervals between October and January, spanning an average vertical extent of 50–100 m at depths of about 800–1,000 m. Given the direction and velocity of the slope water currents and the duration of the pelagic stage, the calculated 300–500 km drift of the eggs and larvae would take them onto the Scotian Shelf, as well as into the Gulf of St. Lawrence. Therefore, the location of the presumed spawning grounds is consistent with expectations based on migration compensation theory, the northeasterly migratory patterns of the juveniles, the relatively static distribution of the adults off southern Newfoundland, and the prevailing currents at depth.     

Evaluation on exposures to particulate matter at a junior secondary school: a comprehensive study on health risks and effective inflammatory responses in Northwestern China

Air pollutant measurement and respiratory inflammatory tests were conducted at a junior secondary school in Xi’an, Northwestern China. Hazardous substances including particulate matters (PMs), black carbon (BC) and particle-bounded polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were quantified both indoors and outdoors of the school. Source characterization with organic tracers and particle-size distribution demonstrated that the school’s air was mostly polluted by combustion emissions from the surrounding environment. The evaluation of health assessment related to air quality was conducted by two methods, including potential risk estimation of air pollutants and direct respiratory inflammatory test. The incremental lifetime cancer risks associated with PAHs were estimated and were 1.62 × 10⁻⁶ and 2.34 × 10⁻⁶, respectively, for indoor and outdoor fine PMs. Both the values exceeded the threshold value of 1 × 10⁻⁶, demonstrating that the carcinogenic PAHs are a health threat to the students. Respiratory inflammatory responses of 50 students who studied in the sample classroom were examined with a fractional exhaled nitric oxide (FeNO) test, with the aid of health questionnaires. The average FeNO concentration was 17.4 ± 8.5 ppb, which was slightly lower than the recommended level of 20 ppb established by the American Thoracic Society for children. However, a wide distribution and 6% of the values were > 35 ppb, suggesting that the potentials were still high for eosinophilic inflammation and responsiveness to corticosteroids. A preliminary interpretation of the relationship between air toxins and respiratory inflammatory response demonstrated the high exposure cancer risks and inflammatory responses of the students to PMs in the city.

     

Solar‐powered in situ soil washing with surfactant to collect LNAPL

This article presents the findings of a sustainable, surfactant‐enhanced, product recovery pilot‐scale study (PSS) completed between January 2010 and May 2010 at the Hydrocarbon Burn Facility located at the John F. Kennedy Space Center in Florida. The goal of this study was to implement a unique, simple, and sustainable light nonaqueous‐phase liquid (LNAPL) recovery process and evaluate site‐specific volumes and rates of LNAPL that could be collected and the degree of soil and groundwater cleanup that could be achieved. The recovery process was a combination of groundwater recirculation at a rate of approximately 2.9 gallons per minute (11.0 liters per minute), soil washing via LNAPL mobilization, and collection of LNAPL via a hydrophobic LNAPL skimmer. A biodegradable surfactant, ECOSURF^TM SA‐15, was added to the recirculation line to lower the interfacial tension and facilitate LNAPL recovery via mobilization. All equipment (submersible pump, LNAPL skimmer, surfactant feed pump, controls, and various other equipment) used was powered by a solar panel array. Approximately 60 gallons (227 liters) or 429 pounds (195 kilograms) of LNAPL were collected at the recirculation site over approximately three months during the PSS. The data suggest that surfactant amendments greatly enhanced free product collection. The maximum rate of free product collection was approximately 1 gallon (3.8 liters) per day. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Fate of heavy metals and radioactive metals in gasification of sewage sludge

The fates of radioactive cadmium, strontium, cesium, cobalt, arsenic, mercury, zinc, and copper spiked into sewage sludge were determined when the sludge was gasified by a process that maximizes production of char from the sludge (ChemChar process). For the most part the metals were retained in the char product in the gasifier. Small, but measurable quantities of arsenic were mobilized by gasification and slightly more than 1% of the arsenic was detected in the effluent gas. Mercury was largely mobilized from the solids in the gasifier, but most of the mercury was retained in a filter composed of char prepared from the sludge. The small amounts of mercury leaving the gasification system were found to be associated with an aerosol product generated during gasification. The metals retained in the char product of gasification were only partially leachable with 50% concentrated nitric acid.