Cluster detection using Bayes factors from overparameterized cluster models

In this paper, we consider the use of a partition model to estimate regional disease rates and to detect spatial clusters. Formal inference regarding the number of partitions (or clusters) can be obtained with a reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. As an alternative, we consider the ability of models with a fixed, but overly large, number of partitions to estimate regional disease rates and to provide informal inferences about the number and locations of clusters using local Bayes factors. We illustrate and compare these two approaches using data on leukemia incidence in upstate New York and data on breast cancer incidence in Wisconsin.     

Low‐concentration hydrogen peroxide decontamination for Bacillus spore contamination in buildings

Remediation and recovery efforts after a release of Bacillus anthracis (anthrax) spores may be difficult and costly. In addition, response and recovery technologies may be focused on critical resources, leaving the small business or homeowner without remediation options. This study evaluates the efficacy of relatively low levels of hydrogen peroxide vapor (HPV) delivered from off‐the‐shelf equipment for the inactivation of Bacillus spores within an indoor environment. Decontamination evaluations were conducted in a house using both Bacillus atrophaeus var. globigii (Bg; as surrogates for B. anthracis) inoculated on the carpet and galvanized metal as coupons and Geobacillus stearothermophilus (Gs) as biological indicators on steel. The total decontamination time ranged from 4 to 7 days. Using the longer exposure times, low concentrations of HPV (average levels below 20 parts per million) effectively inactivated Bg and Gs spores on the materials tested. The HPV was generated with commercial humidifiers and household‐strength hydrogen peroxide solutions. The presence of home furnishings did not have a significant impact on HPV efficacy. This simple, inexpensive, and effective decontamination method could have significant utility for remediation following a B. anthracis spore release, such as following a terrorist attack.     

Survey of the occurrence of residues of methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) in Dutch drinking water sources and drinking water

An indicative survey has been carried out in The Netherlands investigating the presence of methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) in drinking water and the corresponding sources. In total, 71 different sites used for the preparation of drinking water in The Netherlands were sampled in two successive seasons in 2001 involving the analysis of 156 samples. (ground water (n = 88), surface water (n = 17), bank filtrate water (n = 6) and drinking water (n = 45)). To combine high sample throughput with high selectivity and sensitivity, off-line purge and trap for sampling and gas chromatography mass spectrometry equipped with an automated thermal desorption sampler (TDS-GC-MS) was selected as the preferred analytical methodology. The developed procedure enabled the analysis of at least 40 samples per day and provided a limit of quantification of 2 ng l(-1). In the first period 63 samples of raw water were analyzed. Concentrations ranged between < 10 ng l(-1) and 420 ng l(-1) with a median concentration below 10 ng l(-1). The second period was focused at the re-sampling of positive locations (MTBE > 10 ng l(-1)) and a few additional drinking water utilities of which both the raw and drinking water of the utilities were analyzed. The median concentration of MTBE in the selected set of drinking water samples was 20 ng l(-1) (n = 45). At one location MTBE was found at a level of 2900 ng l(-1) caused by point source contamination of the ground water (11 900 ng l(-1)). Special attention has been paid to the quality of the results by analyzing all samples in duplicate and the analysis of control samples during each series of analyses.     

Prenatal diagnosis of congenital nephrosis by in utero kidney biopsy

The diagnosis of congenital nephrosis is difficult during the antepartum period. The combination of an elevated amniotic fluid alpha-fetoprotein, a negative acetylcholinesterase, and a negative ultrasound examination is highly indicative of congenital nephrosis; however, these findings can also be associated with a normal gestation. This is the first report of pathologic confirmation of congenital nephrosis from an in utero fetal kidney biopsy. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaluating microbial purification during soil treatment of wastewater with multicomponent tracer and surrogate tests

Soil treatment of wastewater has the potential to achieve high purification efficiency, yet the understanding and predictability of purification with respect to removal of viruses and other pathogens is limited. Research has been completed to quantify the removal of virus and bacteria through the use of microbial surrogates and conservative tracers during controlled experiments with three-dimensional pilot-scale soil treatment systems in the laboratory and during the testing of full-scale systems under field conditions. The surrogates and tracers employed included two viruses (MS-2 and PRD-1 bacteriophages), one bacterium (ice-nucleating active Pseudomonas), and one conservative tracer (bromide ion). Efforts have also been made to determine the relationship between viruses and fecal coliform bacteria in soil samples below the wastewater infiltrative surface, and the correlation between Escherichia coli concentrations measured in percolating soil solution as compared with those estimated from analyses of soil solids. The results suggest episodic breakthrough of virus and bacteria during soil treatment of wastewater and a 2 to 3 log (99-99.9%) removal of virus and near complete removal of fecal coliform bacteria during unsaturated flow through 60 to 90 cm of sandy medium. Results also suggest that the fate of fecal coliform bacteria may be indicative of that of viruses in soil media near the infiltrative surface receiving wastewater effluent. Concentrations of fecal coliform in percolating soil solution may be conservatively estimated from analysis of extracted soil solids.     

A ten year summary of concurrent ambient water column and sediment toxicity tests in the Chesapeake Bay watershed: 1990-1999

The goal of this study was to identify the relative toxicity ofambient areas in the Chesapeake Bay watershed by using a suiteof concurrent water column and sediment toxicity tests at seventy-five ambient stations in 20 Chesapeake Bay rivers from1990 through 1999. Spatial and temporal variability was examinedat selected locations throughout the 10 yr study. Inorganicand organic contaminants were evaluated in ambient water andsediment concurrently with water column and sediment tests toassess possible causes of toxicity although absolute causalitycan not be established. Multivariate statistical analysis wasused to develop a multiple endpoint toxicity index (TOX-INDEX) at each station for both water column and sediment toxicity data. Water column tests from the 10 yr testing period showed that49% of the time, some degree of toxicity was reported. The mosttoxic sites based on water column results were located inurbanized areas such as the Anacostia River, Elizabeth River andthe Middle River. Water quality criteria for copper, lead,mercury, nickel and zinc were exceeded at one or more of thesesites. Water column toxicity was also reported in localizedareas of the South and Chester Rivers. Both spatial and temporalvariability was reported from the suite of water column toxicitytests. Some degree of sediment toxicity was reported from 62% of the tests conducted during the ten year period. The ElizabethRiver and Baltimore Harbor stations were reported as the most toxic areas based on sediment results.Sediment toxicity guidelines were exceeded for one or more of thefollowing metals at these two locations: arsenic, cadmium,chromium, copper, lead, nickel and zinc. At the Elizabeth Riverstations nine of sixteen semi-volatile organics and two of sevenpesticides measured exceeded the ER-M values in 1990. Ambientsediment toxicity tests in the Elizabeth River in 1996 showedreduced toxicity. Various semi-volatile organics exceeded the ER-M values at a number of Baltimore Harbor sites; pyrene anddibenzo(a,h)anthracene were particularly high at one of thestations (Northwest Harbor). Localized sediment toxicity was alsoreported in the Chester, James, Magothy, Rappahannock, andPotomac Rivers but the link with contaminants was not determined.Both spatial and temporal variability was less for sedimenttoxicity data when compared with water column toxicity data. Acomparison of water column and sediment toxicity data for thevarious stations over the 10 yr study showed that approximatelyhalf the time agreement occurred (either both suite of testsshowed toxicity or neither suite of tests showed toxicity).     

Using the ECLPSS software environment to build a spatially explicit component-based model of ozone effects on forest ecosystems

We have developed a modeling framework to support grid-based simulation of ecosystems at multiple spatial scales, the Ecological Component Library for Parallel Spatial Simulation (ECLPSS). ECLPSS helps ecologists to build robust spatially explicit simulations of ecological processes by providing a growing library of reusable interchangeable components and automating many modeling tasks. To build a model, a user selects components from the library, and then writes new components as needed. Some of these components represent specific ecological processes, such as how environmental factors influence the growth of individual trees. Other components provide simulation support such as reading and writing files in various formats to allow inter-operability with other software. The framework manages components and variables, the order of operations, and spatial interactions. The framework provides only simulation support; it does not include ecological functions or assumptions. This separation allows biologists to build models without becoming computer scientists, while computer scientists can improve the framework without becoming ecologists. The framework is designed to operate on multiple platforms and be used across networks via a World Wide Web-based user interface. ECLPSS is designed for use with both single processor computers for small models, and multiple processors in order to simulate large regions with complex interactions among many individuals or ecological compartments. To test Version 1.0 of ECLPSS, we created a model to evaluate the effect of tropospheric ozone on forest ecosystem dynamics. This model is a reduced-form version of two existing models: , which represents an individual tree, and , which represents forest stand growth and succession. This model demonstrates key features of ECLPSS, such as the ability to examine the effects of cell size and model structure on model predictions.     

Magnitude and distribution of option value for the Washakie Wilderness,northwest Wyoming,USA

Option value is estimated for the Washakie Wilderness, northwest Wyoming, USA, using the contingent valuation technique. Consumer surplus, the traditional measure of economic value, is estimated separately and compared with option value. Several populations are tested, including Washakie visitors, Yellowstone National Park visitors, and residents from four metropolitan test markets: Salt Lake City, Utah; Portland, Oregon; Nashville, Tennessee; and Orlando, Florida, USA. The average annual preservation option value (consumer surplus) expressed by on-site wilderness visitors is $46.17 ($80.13), by urban residents is $9.70 ($8.97), and by rural residents is $8.43 ($7.80). Four selected attributes are determined to be important in motivating option demand for the Washakie, including existence value, bequest value, the desire for an on-site visit, and interest in securing the visiting privileges of others. The results suggest that option value is important in wilderness valuation and that off-site users account for a large part of the economic value of wilderness.     

Environmental fate and ecotoxicology of propanil: a review

The herbicide propanil, a synthetic anilide, was discovered in 1957 to control grasses and broad-leaf weeds in rice fields. It has been found to disrupt the electron transport chain by inhibiting the photosystem II, thus impacting plant growth. In the environment, photolysis represents a major degradation pathway, whereas volatilization is not a major route of dissipation from either water or moist soils. Propanil is rapidly degraded by microbes into the major degradation product 3,4-dichloroaniline. This degradation product has been highly detected in both groundwater and surface waters throughout the world. Propanil has been found to adversely impact many non-target organisms. It is toxic to some early life-stage aquatic organisms, in addition to being moderately toxic to the water flea (Ceriodaphnia dubia) and rainbow trout. In addition, it has been reported to pose a high acute and long-term risk to birds. In plants, growth rates are highly impacted; however, some plant species are becoming resistant to propanil.     

Scale-dependent variation in coral community similarity across sites, islands, and island groups

Community similarity is the proportion of species richness in a region that is shared on average among communities within that region. The slope of local richness (alpha diversity) regressed on regional richness (gamma diversity) can serve as an index of community similarity across regions with different regional richness. We examined community similarity in corals at three spatial scales (among transects at a site, sites on an island, and islands within an island group) across a 10 000-km longitudinal diversity gradient in the west-central Pacific Ocean. When alpha diversity was regressed on gamma diversity, the slopes, and thus community similarity, increased with scale (0.085, 0.261, and 0.407, respectively) because a greater proportion of gamma diversity was subsumed within alpha diversity as scale increased. Using standard randomization methods, we also examined how community similarity differed between observed and randomized assemblages and how this difference was affected by spatial separation of species within habitat types and specialization of species to three habitat types (reef flats, crests, and slopes). If spatial separation within habitat types and/or habitat specialization (i.e., underdispersion) occurs, fewer species are shared among assemblages than the random expectation. When the locations of individual coral colonies were randomized within and among habitat types, community similarity was 46-47% higher than that for observed assemblages at all three scales. We predicted that spatial separation of coral species within habitat types should increase with scale due to dispersal/extinction dynamics in this insular system, but that specialization of species to different habitat types should not change because habitat differences do not change with scale. However, neither habitat specialization nor spatial separation within habitat types differed among scales. At the two larger scales, each accounted for 22-24% of the difference in community similarity between observed and randomized assemblages. At the smallest scale (transect-site), neither spatial separation within habitat types nor habitat specialization had significant effects on community similarity, probably due to the small size of transect samples. The results suggest that coral species can disperse among islands in an island group as easily as they can among sites on an island over time scales that are relevant to their establishment and persistence on reefs.