A fragment constant QSAR model for evaluating the EC50 values of organic chemicals to Daphnia magna.

The quantitative relationship between the median effective concentration (EC50) of organic chemicals to Daphnia magna and the number of molecular fragments was investigated based on experimental EC50 values for 217 chemicals derived from the literature. A fragment constant model was developed based on a multivariate linear regression between the number of fragments and the logarithmically transformed reciprocal values of EC50. Functional correction factors were introduced into the model. The model was verified using an independent set of randomly selected data. The mean residual of the final model was 0.4 log-units. The robustness of the model was discussed based on the results of three jackknife tests.     

Transition zone in otoliths of orange roughy (Hoplostethus atlanticus) and its relationship to the onset of maturity

A transition zone in the otoliths of orange roughy (Hoplostethus atlanticus) is described where annulus width decreases markedly. For fish sampled at spawning time, the relationship between gonad stage and the presence or absence of a transition zone is consistent with the hypothesis that this zone marks the onset of maturity, if allowance is made for some error in gonad staging and identification of the zone. Another data set from a non-spawning area after the spawning season is not consistent with the hypothesis. However, these latter data are considered less reliable because of the small size of the fish in the sample and difficulties in determining, outside the spawning season, whether a fish has been reproductively active. This hypothesis was used to provide estimates of the median age (30 yr) and length (31 cm) at the onset of maturity for the Chatham Rise, New Zealand population. These estimates are unaffected by the biases associated with the usual ogive method of estimation. Received: 27 June 1997 / Accepted: 1 July 1997     

SELECTING TREND TESTS FOR WATER QUALITY SERIES WITH SERIAL CORRELATION AND MISSING VALUES1

ABSTRACT: The use of nonparametric tests for monotonic trend has flourished in recent years to support routine water quality data analyses. The validity of an assumption of independent, identically distributed error terms is an important concern in selecting the appropriate nonparametric test, as is the presence of missing values. Decision rules are needed for choosing between alternative tests and for deciding whether and how to pre-process data before trend testing. Several data pre-processing procedures in conjunction with the Mann-Kendall tau and the Seasonal Kendall test (with and without serial correlation correction) are evaluated using synthetic time series with generated serial correlation and missing data. A composite test (pre-testing for serial correlation followed by one of two trend tests) is evaluated and was found to perform satisfactorily.     

The Spatiotemporal Pattern of Fires in Northern Taiga Larch Forests of Central Siberia

The periodicity of fires in larch forests of Evenkia and their relationship with landscape elements have been studied. Cross-sections with “burns” in them caused by past fires have been analyzed in 72 test plots; the fire chronology encompassed the period from the 15th to the 20th century. The between-fire intervals (BFIs) have been calculated by two methods: (I) on the basis of burns alone and (II) on the basis of burns and the start of growth of the new generation of larch after the earliest fire. The BFI depends on local orographic features; it is 86 ± 11 (105 ± 12), 61 ± 8 (73 ± 8), 139 ± 17 (138 ± 18), and 68 ± 14 (70 ± 13) years for northeastern slopes, southwestern slopes, bogs, and flatlands, respectively. The mean BFIs calculated by methods I and II are 82 ± 7 and 95 ± 7 years, respectively. The permafrost horizon rises at a mean rate of 0.3 cm per year after a forest fire. It has been shown that the number of fires regularly peaks at periods of 36 and 82 years. There is also a temporal trend in fire frequency: the mean BFI was approximately 100 years in the 19th century and 65 years in the 20th century.