Developing a New Operations Plan for the Bow River Basin Using Collaborative Modeling for Decision Support

The Bow River Basin is a cornerstone of Alberta's development. In 2010, stakeholders representing interests from agriculture, municipalities, environment, and more formed the Bow River Project Research Consortium to help determine the potential for improving the operations in the basin. At present, upstream reservoirs are operated primarily for hydropower, whereas downstream reservoirs are operated for irrigation. Through Collaborative Modeling for Decision Support the stakeholders were able to develop a new method for operating the system that would dramatically improve environmental performance. The main components of the new operating strategy called for: purchase or setting aside of a small amount of storage volume in the power reservoirs; a set of rules for releases from that storage; an agreement by the major irrigation districts with the largest water licenses to utilize their ability to shift deliveries to and from their large offstream storage reservoirs to allow for increased instream flows, and to allow junior water license holders (mainly municipal and industrial supplies) an uninterrupted water supply; limitations of reservoir fluctuations to improve inreservoir habitat for fisheries; and increased minimum flows throughout the system leading to improved environmental outcomes. Costs of this strategy were minimal, impacts on power revenue were estimated at <US$2 million/yr on average. Compensatory arrangements should be possible.     

Synthesizing habitat connectivity analyses of a globally important human-dominated tiger-conservation landscape

As ecological data and associated analyses become more widely available, synthesizing results for effective communication with stakeholders is essential. In the case of wildlife corridors, managers in human-dominated landscapes need to identify both the locations of corridors and multiple stakeholders for effective oversight. We synthesized five independent studies of tiger (Panthera tigris) connectivity in central India, a global priority landscape for tiger conservation, to quantify agreement on landscape permeability for tiger movement and potential movement pathways. We used the latter analysis to identify connectivity areas on which studies agreed and stakeholders associated with these areas to determine relevant participants in corridor management. Three or more of the five studies’ resistance layers agreed in 63% of the study area. Areas in which all studies agree on resistance were of primarily low (66%, e.g., forest) and high (24%, e.g., urban) resistance. Agreement was lower in intermediate resistance areas (e.g., agriculture). Despite these differences, the studies largely agreed on areas with high levels of potential movement: >40% of high average (top 20%) current-flow pixels were also in the top 20% of current-flow agreement pixels (measured by low variation), indicating consensus connectivity areas (CCAs) as conservation priorities. Roughly 70% of the CCAs fell within village administrative boundaries, and 100% overlapped forest department management boundaries, suggesting that people live and use forests within these priority areas. Over 16% of total CCAs’ area was within 1 km of linear infrastructure (437 road, 170 railway, 179 transmission line, and 339 canal crossings; 105 mines within 1 km of CCAs). In 2019, 78% of forest land diversions for infrastructure and mining in Madhya Pradesh (which comprises most of the study region) took place in districts with CCAs. Acute competition for land in this landscape with globally important wildlife corridors calls for an effective comanagement strategy involving local communities, forest departments, and infrastructure planners.     

Effect modification of ambient particle mortality by radon: A time series analysis in 108 U.S. cities

Numerous studies have reported a positive association between ambient fine particles and daily mortality, but little is known about the particle properties or environmental factors that may contribute to these effects. This study assessed potential modification of radon on PM_2.5 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter <2.5 μm)-associated daily mortality in 108 U.S. cities using a two-stage statistical approach. First, city- and season-specific PM_2.5 mortality risks were estimated using over-dispersed Poisson regression models. These PM_2.5 effect estimates were then regressed against mean city-level residential radon concentrations to estimate overall PM_2.5 effects and potential modification by radon. Radon exposure estimates based on measured short-term basement concentrations and modeled long-term living-area concentrations were both assessed. Exposure to PM_2.5 was associated with total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality in both the spring and the fall. In addition, higher mean city-level radon concentrations increased PM_2.5-associated mortality in the spring and fall. For example, a 10 µg/m³ increase in PM_2.5 in the spring at the 10th percentile of city-averaged short-term radon concentrations (21.1 Bq/m³) was associated with a 1.92% increase in total mortality (95% CI: 1.29, 2.55), whereas the same PM_2.5 exposure at the 90th radon percentile (234.2 Bq/m³) was associated with a 3.73% increase in total mortality (95% CI: 2.87, 4.59). Results were robust to adjustment for spatial confounders, including average planetary boundary height, population age, percent poverty and tobacco use. While additional research is necessary, this study suggests that radon enhances PM_2.5 mortality. This is of significant regulatory importance, as effective regulation should consider the increased risk for particle mortality in cities with higher radon levels.

Implications: In this large national study, city-averaged indoor radon concentration was a significant effect modifier of PM_2.5-associated total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality risk in the spring and fall. These results suggest that radon may enhance PM_2.5-associated mortality. In addition, local radon concentrations partially explain the significant variability in PM_2.5 effect estimates across U.S. cities, noted in this and previous studies. Although the concept of PM as a vector for radon progeny is feasible, additional research is needed on the noncancer health effects of radon and its potential interaction with PM. Future air quality regulations may need to consider the increased risk for particle mortality in cities with higher radon levels.     

Empirical modeling of atmospheric deposition in mountainous landscapes.

Atmospheric deposition has long been recognized as an important source of pollutants and nutrients to ecosystems. The need for reliable, spatially explicit estimates of total atmospheric deposition (wet + dry + cloud) is central, not only to air pollution effects researchers, but also for calculation of input-output budgets, and to decision makers faced with the challenge of assessing the efficacy of policy initiatives related to deposition. Although atmospheric deposition continues to represent a critical environmental and scientific issue, current estimates of total deposition have large uncertainties, particularly across heterogeneous landscapes such as montane regions. We developed an empirical modeling approach that predicts total deposition as a function of landscape features. We measured indices of total deposition to the landscapes of Acadia (121 km2) and Great Smoky Mountains (2074 km2) National Parks (USA). Using approximately 300-400 point measurements and corresponding landscape variables at each park, we constructed a statistical (general linear) model relating the deposition index to landscape variables measured in the field. The deposition indices ranged over an order of magnitude, and in response to vegetation type and elevation, which together explained approximately 40% of the variation in deposition. Then, using the independent landscape variables available in GIS data layers, we created a GIS-relevant statistical nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) deposition model (LandMod). We applied this model to create park-wide maps of total deposition that were scaled to wet and dry deposition data from the closest national network monitoring stations. The resultant deposition maps showed high spatial heterogeneity and a four- to sixfold variation in "hot spots" and "cold spots" of N and S deposition ranging from 3 to 31 kg N x ha(-1) x yr(-1) and from 5 to 42 kg S x ha(-1) x yr(-1) across these park landscapes. Area-weighted deposition was found to be up to 70% greater than NADP plus CASTNET monitoring-station estimates together. Model-validation results suggest that the model slightly overestimates deposition for deciduous and coniferous forests at low elevation and underestimates deposition for high-elevation coniferous forests. The spatially explicit deposition estimates derived from LandMod are an improvement over what is currently available. Future research should test LandMod in other mountainous environments and refine it to account for (currently) unexplained variation in deposition.     

The Value of Human Life in Global Warming Impacts – a Comment

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change -     

Removal of natural organic matter by cationic hydrogel with magnetic properties

Magnetic cationic hydrogel (MCH) was synthesized, and its removal efficiency and mechanisms in regard to natural organic matter (NOM, represented by humic acid and fulvic acid) from the aqueous environment were studied. The effects of time, adsorbent dosage, initial pH, ionic strength, background ions, and NOM types were also investigated. MCH was characterized and found to have a strong magnetic character, yielding an extra advantage for recycling and reuse. Batch studies showed that the removal of Aldrich humic acid (AHA) by MCH was effective. The main mechanism for the removal of NOM is believed to be due to electrostatic interaction. NOM with larger molecular weight tended to be preferentially removed. Solutions with low pH, high ionic strength, and background electrolytes containing calcium, sulfate and bicarbonate were unfavorable for AHA removal. The adsorption-desorption of MCH was evaluated in three cycles, and demonstrated high regeneration rates.     

The impact of storm events on a riverbed system and its hydraulic conductivity at a site of induced infiltration

The spatial and temporal variability of riverbed vertical hydraulic conductivity (K(v)) was investigated at a site of induced infiltration, associated with a municipal well field, to assess the impact of high-stage events on scour and subsequently the riverbed K(v). Such impacts are important when considering the potential loss of riverbank filtration capacity due to storm events. The study site, in and along the Great Miami River in southwest Ohio, overlaid a highly productive glacial-outwash aquifer. A three-layer model for this system was conceptualized: a top layer of transient sediment, a second layer comprising large sediment resistant to scour, but clogged with finer sediment (the armor/colmation layer), and a third layer that was transitional to the underlying higher-K(v) aquifer. One location was studied in detail to confirm and quantify the conceptual model. Methods included seepage meters, heat-flow modeling, grain-size analyses, laboratory permeameter tests, slug tests and the use of scour chains and pressure-load cells to directly measure the amount of sediment scour and re-deposition. Seepage meter measured riverbed K(v) ranged from 0.017 to 1.7 m/d with a geometric mean of 0.19 m/d. Heat-transport model-calibrated estimates were even lower, ranging from 0.0061 to 0.046 m/d with a mean of 0.017 m/d. The relatively low K(v) was indicative of the clogged armor layer. In contrast, slug tests in the underlying riverbed sediment yielded K(v) values an order of magnitude greater. There was a linear relationship between scour chain measured scour and event intensity with a maximum scour of only 0.098 m. Load-cell pressure sensor data over a 7-month period indicated a total sediment-height fluctuation of 0.42 m and a maximum storm-event scour of 0.28 m. Scour data indicated that the assumed armor/colmation layer almost always remained intact. Based on measured layer conductivities and thicknesses, the overall K(v) of this conceptualized system was 1.6 m/d. Sensitivity analyses indicated that even complete scour of the armor/colmation layer would likely increase the overall K(v) only by a factor of 1.5. Most scour events observed removed only the transient sediment, having very little effect on the entire system indicating low risk of losing filtration capacity during storms. The research, however, focused on the point bar, depositional side of the river. More research of the entire river profile is necessary.