Estimating baseline carbon emissions for the Eastern Panama Canal watershed

To participate in the potential market for carbon credits based on changes in the use and management of the land, one needs to identify opportunities and implement land-use based emissions reductions or sequestration projects. A key requirement of land-based carbon (C) projects is that any activity developed for generating C benefits must be additional to business-as-usual. A rule-based model was developed and used that estimates changes in land-use and subsequent carbon emissions over the next twenty years using the Eastern Panama Canal Watershed (EPCW) as a case study. These projections of changes in C stocks serve as a baseline to identify where opportunities exist for implementing projects to generate potential C credits and to position Panama to be able to participate in the emerging C market by developing a baseline under scenarios of business-as-usual and new-road development. The projections show that the highest percent change in land use for the new-road scenario compared to the business-as-usual scenario is for urban areas, and the greatest cause of C emission is from deforestation. Thus, the most effective way to reduce C emissions to the atmosphere in the EPCW is by reducing deforestation. In addition to affecting C emissions, reducing deforestation would also protect the soil and water resources of the EPCW. Yet, under the current framework of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), only credits arising from reforestation are allowed, which after 20 years of plantation establishment are not enough to offset the C emissions from the ongoing, albeit small, rate of deforestation in the EPCW. The study demonstrates the value of spatial regional projections of changes in land cover and C stocks: The approach helps a country identify its potential greenhouse gas (GHG) emission liabilities into the future and provides opportunity for the country to plan alternative development pathways. It could be used by potential project developers to identify which types of projects will generate the largest C benefits and provide the needed baseline against which a project is then evaluated. Spatial baselines, such as those presented here, can be used by governments to help identify development goals. The development of such a baseline, and its expansion to other vulnerable areas, well positions Panama to respond to the future market demand for C offsets. It is useful to compare the projected change in land cover under the business-as-usual scenario to the goals set by Law 21 for the year 2020. Suggested next steps for analysis includeusing the modeling approach to exploreland-use, C dynamics and management ofsecondary forests and plantations, soilC gains or losses, sources ofvariability in the land use and Cstock projections, and other ecologicalimplications and feedbacks resulting fromprojected changes in land cover.     

Fetal limb constriction: A possible complication of CVS

A case of fetal loss due to infection after first-trimester chorionic villus sampling is described. The fetus was born at 18 3/7 weeks and showed an annular constriction of one of the arms as seen in the amniotic band sequence. Induction of congenital defects might be one of the complications of chorionic villus sampling.     

First-trimester screening for fetal chromosomal abnormalities. Preliminary results

We have started a multicentre trial to study the possibilities of first-trimester maternal serum screening for fetal chromosomal abnormalities. Maternal blood samples were obtained before 13 weeks of gestation. We present the preliminary results of the first 950 patients on alpha-fetoprotein (AFP). Results on cancer antigen 125 (CA 125) in Down's syndrome and normal pregnancies are also presented. We conclude that the results on AFP are promising and that CA 125 might be predictive for fetal Down's syndrome.     

European Atlantic: the hottest oil spill hotspot worldwide

Oil spills caused by maritime transport of petroleum products are still an important source of ocean pollution, especially in main production areas and along major transport routes. We here provide a historical and geographic analysis of the major oil spills (>700 t) since 1960. Spills were recorded from several key marine ecosystems and marine biodiversity hotspots. The past four decades have been characterized by an overall decrease in the number of accidents and tonnes of oil spilled in the sea, but this trend was less distinct in the European Atlantic area. Recent black tides from the Erika and Prestige vessels provided new evidence for the high risk of accidents with serious ecological impact in this area, which according to our analysis is historically the most important oil spill hotspot worldwide. The English Channel and waters around Galicia in Spain were the areas with most accidents. Maritime transport in European Atlantic waters has been predicted to continue increasing. Together with our own results this suggests that, in addition to measures for increased traffic safety, deployment of emergency capacities in the spill hotspot areas may be crucial for a sustainable conservation of sea resources and ecosystems.Electronic Supplementary Material  Supplementary material is available for this article if you access the article at . A link in the frame on the left on that page takes you directly to the supplementary material.     

Nitrogen accumulation and plant species replacement in three salt marsh systems in the Wadden Sea

Salt marsh development on the coastal barrier island of Schiermonnikoog (The Netherlands) was compared with two other salt marsh systems in the Wadden Sea. Accretion rate, nitrogen accumulation and changes in plant species composition were investigated using chronosequences. The age of the marsh was estimated from aerial photographs and old maps. In 7230 plots, the elevation of the marsh surface, the thickness of the sediment layer (clay) and the presence of plant species was recorded. In addition, the nitrogen pool was measured at each successional stage. Accretion rates were similar in the three salt marshes. Higher accretion rates were found at younger marshes. A strong linear relationship between nitrogen pool size and thickness of the clay layer was found for the three marshes. The accumulation rate of nitrogen is therefore strongly related to the accretion rate. Thus, more nitrogen is present in the sediment of later successional stages where more clay has accumulated. On the high salt marsh (55 cm+MHT),Ameria maritima disappeared andArtemisia maritima, Juncus gerardi andElymus athericus established at sites with a thicker clay layer. On the low salt marsh (25 cm+MHT),Plantago maritima, Puccinellia maritima andLimonium vulgare disappeared andAtriplex (Halimione) portulacoides established. Apparently, with the accumulation of clay and therefore of nitrogen, tall growing species take over in salt marshes not grazed by livestock.     

Super-individuals a simple solution for modelling large populations on an individual basis

Modelling populations on an individual-by-individual basis has proven to be a fruitful approach. Many complex patterns that are observed on the population level have been shown to arise from simple interactions between individuals. However, a major problem with these models is that the typically large number of individuals needed requires impractically large computation times. The common solution, reduction of the number of individuals in the model, can lead to loss of variation, irregular dynamics, and large sensitivity to the value of random generator seeds. As a solution to these problems, we propose to add an extra variable feature to each model individual, namely the number of real individuals it actually represents. This approach allows zooming from a real individual-by-individual model to a cohort representation or ultimately an all-animals-are-equal view without changing the model formulation. Therefore, the super-individual concept offers easy possibilities to check whether the observed behaviour is an artifact of following a limited number of individuals or of lumping individuals, and also to verify whether individual variability is indeed an essential ingredient for the observed behaviour. In addition the approach offers arbitrarily large computational advantages. As an example the super-individual approach is applied to a generic model of the dynamics of a size-distributed consumer cohort as well as to an elaborate applied simulation model of the recruitment of striped bass.     

Sabaki River sediment load and coral stress: correlation between sediments and condition of the Malindi-Watamu reefs in Kenya (Indian Ocean)

Sediment discharges from rivers have a negative impact on coral reef ecosystems. Indicators of coral decline measured in the present study were: (1) injury to living stony corals; (2) soft coral cover; and (3) bare rocky substrate suitable for colonization by corals. The relationship between these indicators and the distribution of terrigenous sediment was studied for the Malindi-Watamu fringing reef complex along the Kenyan coast off East Africa during 1982 and 1983. Decline of this reef had been repeatedly noted during the preceding decade. The influence of terrigenous sediment from the Sabaki River appears to be strongest in the Watamu area in the south and in the northern-most part of the Malindi reef area. Correlations, between each of the above three coral stress response indicators, on the one hand, and quantitative indicators of sediment loading, on the other hand, were not clear. However, a combined coral stress indicator involving all three factors was shown to have a clear relationship with terrigenous sediment loading and provided a rapid means of field evaluation of the effects of sediment stress on stony corals. Values for the combined coral stress indicator were found to increase in proportion to increasing values of terrigenous sediment loads in both study areas. A higher coral stress indicator value means a high proportion of injured or algae infested corals, and/or a high soft coral cover, and/or a high proportion of rocky substrate suitable for, but unoccupied by, living corals.     

Cell-cell recognition system in gorgonians: description of the basic mechanism

A comparative investigation of the chemical composition of Thalassiosira antarctica var. antarctica vegetative and resting stages revealed C:N and C:chl a ratios to be lower in vegetative cells. These trends primarily reflect vegetative levels of C/cell below, and N/cell and chl a/cell levels above those of spores. There was a change in chemical composition with the initial formation of resting spores, and spores continued to modify their composition while maintained in a cyclic light/dark regime for about one and one half weeks. Most notable was a net increase in carbon and chlorophyll a per cell. Spores then subjected to darkness for over one week appeared to retain most of the carbon and chlorophyll a previously synthesized. These findings support the idea that resting spores enhance the survival capabilities of a species under adverse conditions.     

The selenium status of sheep in Britain as indicated by wool selenium concentration

A correlation between the selenium concentration in wool and blood erythrocyte glutathione peroxidase activity (GSHPx) from sheep in W. Derbyshire, a high selenium area and N. Wales and Romney Marsh, low/marginal selenium areas is reported.Soil and herbage selenium concentrations were significantly correlated with wool selenium levels and GSHPx activity.A significant difference was found between wool selenium concentrations and between GSHPx activities from sheep in W. Derbyshire and those animals sampled in N. Wales and Romney Marsh. 90% of wool samples from the low/marginal areas gave concentrations below 0.125 g Se/g. 6.125 g Se/g wool is suggested as a threshold value for selenium in wool from sheep grazing low/marginal areas.Seasonal peaks in wool selenium concentrations and GSHPx activities are found in March and June respectively. Supplementary feeds, which contain added selenium, given to livestock during the winter season may be responsible for these seasonal differences.GSHPx activity data reported in this study records higher sheep selenium levels than those reported in the 1979 survey by Andersonet al. This increase is attributed to the addition since 1979 of selenium to feeds and drenches.Wool is proposed as an accurate and less costly measure of sheep selenium status.