Tipping Points and Climate Change: Metaphor Between Science and the Media

Over the past decade, scientists and journalists have prominently utilized the metaphor of a tipping point for drastic, irreversible and dangerous climate change. This paper shows how the tipping point metaphor became a multi-purpose bridge between science and the news media, describing how its meaning and use developed and diversified in interaction between these two domains. Within the scientific domain, the metaphor developed from a rhetorical device conveying a warning of drastic, irreversible and dangerous climate change to a theoretical concept driving empirical research. The news media soon picked up the tipping point metaphor for abrupt and dangerous climate change, turning it into a common part of the journalistic lexicon. Moreover, both science and the news media developed another, societal use of the tipping point metaphor, calling for radical societal change to avoid climate change catastrophe. The tipping point metaphor is hence not a monolithic notion but a highly versatile concept and expression, allowing it to be used for various communicative purposes by distinct stakeholders in different contexts.     

The challenges of water,waste and climate change in cities

Cities play a prominent role in our economic development as more than 80 % of the gross world product (GWP) comes from cities. Only 600 urban areas with just 20 % of the world population generate 60 % of the GWP. Rapid urbanization, climate change, inadequate maintenance of water and wastewater infrastructures and poor solid waste management may lead to flooding, water scarcity, water pollution, adverse health effects and rehabilitation costs that may overwhelm the resilience of cities. These megatrends pose urgent challenges in cities as the cost of inaction is high. We present an overview about population growth, urbanization, water, waste, climate change, water governance and transitions. Against this background, we discuss the categorization of cities based on our baseline assessments, i.e. our City Blueprint research on 45 municipalities and regions predominantly in Europe. With this bias towards Europe in mind, the challenges can be discussed globally by clustering cities into distinct categories of sustainability and by providing additional data and information from global regions. We distinguish five categories of sustainability: (1) cities lacking basic water services, (2) wasteful cities, (3) water-efficient cities, (4) resource-efficient and adaptive cities and (5) water-wise cities. Many cities in Western Europe belong to categories 3 and 4. Some cities in Eastern Europe and the few cities we have assessed in Latin America, Asia and Africa can be categorized as cities lacking basic water services. Lack of water infrastructures or obsolete infrastructures, solid waste management and climate adaptation are priorities. It is concluded that cities require a long-term framing of their sectoral challenges into a proactive and coherent Urban Agenda to maximize the co-benefits of adaptation and to minimize the cost. Furthermore, regional platforms of cities are needed to enhance city-to-city learning and to improve governance capacities necessary to accelerate effective and efficient transitions towards water-wise cities. These learning alliances are needed as the time window to solve the global water governance crisis is narrow and rapidly closing. The water sector can play an important role but needs to reframe and refocus radically.     

Management of a Dutch resident barnacle goose <Emphasis Type="Italic">Branta leucopsis</Emphasis> population: How can results from counts,ringing and hunting bag statistics be reconciled?

The resident Dutch Northern Delta barnacle geese Branta leucopsis population expanded steadily since birds first bred in 1982, increasing agricultural conflict. Derogation shooting has been used since 2005 to scare geese from sensitive crops and to reduce population size. Numbers almost doubled to ca. 28 000 individuals during 2007–2014, despite annual removal of 15–25% of geese and adult and juvenile survival rates of 79 and 67% (cf. natural survival of 96% for both age classes). Simple population modelling, using estimated annual survival values and fixed fecundity, predicted a moderate increase to 21 500 individuals in 2014. It is unclear whether current harvest levels are sufficient to halt population growth. Shooting may be less effective because of the disproportionate take of immature post-breeding and of individuals from other populations in winter. Discrepancies between counted and modelled abundance call for caution and improved effect monitoring of derogation shooting before harvest levels are increased further.     

Window of opportunity of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Liparis loeselii</Emphasis> populations during vegetation succession on the Wadden Sea islands

The present study aims at assessing the life span of populations of the orchid L. loeselii during successional in dune slacks on the Wadden Sea islands. An inventory of Liparis loeselii populations was carried out on 6 islands, while the population structure was assessed in more detail on the island of Texel. The occurrence of the orchid was related to soil factors and hydrological conditions. Groundwater levels were measured in a dune area with natural dune slack formation. The groundwater composition was analyses and the freshwater lenses were modelled. Various scenarios were investigated, including sea level rise and sand nourishment. The window of opportunity for L. loeselii to colonize a new slack is relatively narrow. Under favorable management, the population can survive c. 20 years. Soil pH was positively correlated with the occurrence of L. loeselii populations, while a high organic matter content was negatively correlated. Sites with large populations of L. loeselii, were situated in young dune slacks, that functioned as flow-through lakes and has top soilsinfluenced by anoxic calcareous groundwater. Modelling showed that the freshwater lens would decrease due to sea level rise, while artificial sand nourishment could counteract this effect. The populations of the Hors area on Texel, the Netherlands, can survive for several decades due to continuous formation of new slacks. Discharge of calcareous groundwater is essential to keep the pH on a high level. The hydrological systems that supply dune slack with groundwater are relatively small and are vulnerable for changes in sea level rise.     

应用体内和体外方法评价原油水溶性组分和原油污染的地表水对淡水生物的内分泌干扰潜力

目前关于原油对淡水水生脊椎动物内分泌信号的潜在影响的认知有限。本文以非洲爪蟾(爪蟾属,X. laevis)蝌蚪和莫桑比克罗非鱼幼鱼(口孵非鲫属,O. mossambicus)为研究对象,选择风化原油和未风化提炼后的原油这2种原油的水溶性组分(WAFs)进行暴露实验,选择出可作为内分泌信号改变的生物标志物的基因,对其表达进行了研究。此外,将X. laevis蝌蚪暴露于靠近地下石油库的地表水中,对上述基因表达做了定量分析。利用重组酵母对原油、原油水溶性组分和地表水的(抗)雌激素和(抗)雄激素性进行了评价。在X. laevis对2种原油WAFs的响应中,甲状腺激素受体β表达均显著下调,而另一种与甲状腺相关的基因,2型脱碘酶,在O. mossambicus暴露于高浓度的原油WAF时被上调。此外,这2种WAFs都改变了与脂肪生成相关的过氧化物酶体增殖物激活受体γ在X. laevis中的表达。原油和WAFs在体外表现出抗雌激素和抗雄性激素的活性。然而,O. mossambicus雄激素受体2作为唯一一个代表生殖系统的基因,受到WAF暴露的影响显著。在地表水样品中发现了雌激素、抗雌激素和抗雄激素的作用;但是,在暴露于地表水的X. laevis中没有观察到任何基因表达的明显变化。在所用的2种模式生物以及2种原油中,响应各不相同。尽管如此,这些数据提供了证据证明原油污染可能会因内分泌信号转变对淡水鱼和两栖动物的健康造成不利影响。
精选自Truter, J. C., van Wyk, J. H., Oberholster, P. J., Botha, A.-M. and Mokwena, L. M. (2017), An evaluation of the endocrine disruptive potential of crude oil water accommodated fractions and crude oil contaminated surface water to freshwater organisms using in vitroand in vivo approaches. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry, 36: 1330–1342. doi: 10.1002/etc.3665
详情请见http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/etc.3665/full
     

Per-capita estimations of long-term historical land use and the consequences for global change research

Changes in land use and land cover are important in global climate change, but the many uncertainties in historical estimates seriously hamper climate modelling. We collected new data on estimated per capita land use over the last two millennia, using new data sources from the Humanities. In general, and in agreement with literature, we found that per capita land use indeed has not been constant in the past, but differ per region and over time. Land use in the distant past was mostly less than 1 ha/cap. However, the recently colonised regions show much higher values and have experienced a much higher per capita land use for the recent past. Most known trajectories follow a concave or bell-shaped curve towards the present.     

Transboundary marine spatial planning: a reflexive marine governance experiment?

Because seas and coastlines are shared between states, the formulation and implementation of marine spatial planning (MSP) should be transboundary by nature. The main argument of this paper is that MSP should be organized as a transboundary policy-making process, but this is hampered by the conceptual and institutional fragmentation MSP is facing. Based on an analysis of four transboundary planning processes in different European seas, the paper gives insight into the possibilities to develop and implement transboundary marine spatial planning (TMSP). To overcome the conceptual and institutional challenges, TMSP should be developed as a reflexive governance arrangement, in which the actors involved are able to change the rules of the game and to challenge the existing (national-oriented) MSP discourses. The paper develops four forms of reflexivity (unreflectiveness; performative reflectiveness; structural reflectiveness; and reflexivity) to assess TMSP processes and to formulate conditions which are crucial to develop TMSP as a reflexive marine governance arrangement.     

Assessing equity and sustainability of water allocation in Colombia

Based on the national database of 28,104 water rights (concessions) granted in Colombia, this paper presents an analysis of how the principles of equity and sustainability are reflected in water allocation. Concessions appear to be an exclusionary mechanism since only a minority of small water users have concessions and the distribution of water volumes among those who have them is extremely inequitable. The 2009 Gini coefficient calculated for water concessions granted for agriculture was 0.90 compared with the rural land Gini of 0.88 (both indicators grouping holdings under the same entity). More than half of the Colombian departments have a higher Gini coefficient for water than for land, suggesting that water rights are at least as unequally distributed as land, in one of the most inequitable countries in Latin America. Water allocated to domestic, agriculture and hydropower use indicates a lack of consistency of water allocation criteria across regions. The volumetric and administrative attributes of water allocation in Colombia do not account for environmental flows or the concerns of marginalised groups of society that have limited access to the mechanism. Water allocation as a technical task, with limited transparency and secluded from public scrutiny, does not contribute to the solution of increasing water-related conflicts.     

Wistful wilderness: communication about ‘new’ nature in the Netherlands

Based on in-depth interviews, this article presents findings of a study centred on public communication regarding Tiengemeten, a Dutch island previously occupied by farmers. An answer is sought to the question of how visitors to Tiengemeten evaluate, according to their own experiences, the discourse of people involved in Tiengemeten from a policy and communication perspective. This study showed that visitors’ experiences do not always match the emotions appealed to in public communication materials. It is also suggested that people involved from a policy and communication perspective should refrain from using ‘heavily value-laden’ phraseology. For reasons of trust, this article suggests aligning public communication with genuine experiences of visitors. This is also necessary for avoiding scepticism of visitors as policy makers and communication professionals run a risk that public communication regarding nature becomes counterproductive.     

Wasser: Flüssiges Gold der Alpen

Ohne Zusammenfassung