Soil Organic Carbon (SOC) Equilibrium and Model Initialisation Methods: an Application to the Rothamsted Carbon (RothC) Model

Carbon (C) emissions from anthropogenic land use have accelerated climate change. To reduce C emissions, dynamic models can be used to assess the impact of human drivers on terrestrial C sequestration. Model accuracy requires correct initialisation, since incorrect initialisation can influence the results obtained. Therefore, we sought to improve the initialisation of a process-based SOC model, RothC, which can estimate the effect of climate and land-use change on SOC. The most common initialisation involves running the model until equilibrium (‘spin-up run’), when the SOC pools stabilise (method 1). However, this method does not always produce realistic results. At our experimental sites, the observed SOC was not at equilibrium after 10 years, suggesting that the commonly used spin-up initialisation method assuming equilibrium might be improved. In addition to method 1, we tested two alternative initialisations for RothC that involved adjusting the total or individual SOC pool equilibrium values by regulating the C input during the entire spin-up initialisation period (method 2) and initialising each SOC pool with recently measured SOC values obtained by SOC fractionation (method 3). Analysis of the simulation accuracy for each model initialisation, quantified using the root mean square error (RMSE), indicated that a variant of method 2 that involved adjusting the equilibrium total SOC to observed values (method 2-T) generally showed less variation in the individual SOC pools and total SOC. Furthermore, as total SOC is the sum of all SOC pools, and because total SOC data are more readily available than the individual SOC pool data, we conclude that method 2-T is best for initialising RothC.     

Thomas Malthus,Ester Boserup,and Agricultural Development Models in the Age of Limits

Two competing models have served as the basis for agricultural development policies. One is based on observations and assumptions of The Reverend Thomas Malthus in late eighteenth century Britain, and the other from the Danish economist Ester Boserup in the mid-twentieth century. However, rational agricultural development decisions can only be made using a model that incorporates assumptions based on a technically appropriate model that takes into account the currently status of global systems. A new development model may incorporate elements of both Neo-Malthusian and Boserupian economic-demographic models, but because the world has changed substantially, it can be neither of them alone, nor a hybrid of the two models without significant expansion and refinement. The principles espoused by Malthus and Boserup can thus be used as the starting points in a dialectic argument to arrive at a new agricultural development paradigm.     

Socioeconomic constraints on the technological choices in rural sewage treatment

Technological innovation is one of the potential engines to mitigate environmental pollution. However, the implementation of new technologies sometimes fails owing to socioeconomic constraints from different stakeholders. Thus, it is essential to analyze constraints of environmental technologies in order to build a pathway for their implementation. In this study, taking three technologies on rural sewage treatment in Hangzhou, China as a case study, i.e., wastewater treatment plant (WTP), constructed wetland (CW), and biogas system, we analyzed how socioeconomic constraints affect the technological choices. Results showed that socioeconomic constraints play a key role through changing the relative opportunity cost of inputs from government as compared to that of residents to deliver the public good—sewage treatment—under different economic levels. Economic level determines the technological choice, and the preferred sewage treatment technologies change from biogas system to CW and further to WTP along with the increase of economic level. Mismatch of technological choice and economic level results in failures of rural sewage treatment, e.g., the CW only work well in moderately developed regions in Hangzhou. This finding expands the environmental Kuznets law by introducing the coproduction theory into analysis (i.e., inputs from both government and residents are essential for the delivery of public goods and services such as good environmental quality). A match between technology and socioeconomic conditions is essential to the environmental governance.

     

Alternative poultry litter storage for improved transportation and use as a soil amendment

Transportation of poultry litter out of nutrient limited watersheds such as the Illinois River basin (eastern Oklahoma) is a logical solution for minimizing phosphorus (P) losses from soils to surface waters. Transportation costs are basedon mass of load and distance transported. This study investigated an alternative litter storage technique designed to promote carbon (C) degradation, thereby concentrating nutrients for the purpose of decreasing transportation costs through decreased mass. Poultry litter was stored in 0.90-Mg conical piles under semipermeable tarps and adjusted to 40% moisture content, tested with and without addition of alum (aluminum sulfate). additional study was conducted using 3.6-Mg piles under the same conditions, except tested with and without use of aeration pipes. Samples were analyzed before and after (8 wk) storage. Litter mass degradation (i.e., loss in mass due to organic matter decomposition) was estimated on the basis of changes in litter total P contents. Additional characterization included pH, total nutrients, moisture content, total C, and degree of humification. Litter storage significantly decreased litter mass (16 to 27%), concentrated nutrients such as P and potassium (K) and increased proportion of fulvic and humic acids. The addition of aeration pipes increased mass degradationrelative to piles without aeration pipes. Nitrogen volatilization losses were minimized with alum additions. Increases in P and K concentrations resulted in greater monetary value per unit mass compared with fresh litter. Such increases translate to increased litter shipping distance and cost savings of $17.2 million over 25 yr for litter movement out of eastern Oklahoma.     

Changing Climate,Challenging Choices: Identifying and Evaluating Climate Change Adaptation Options for Protected Areas Management in Ontario,Canada

Climate change will pose increasingly significant challenges to managers of parks and other forms of protected areas around the world. Over the past two decades, numerous scientific publications have identified potential adaptations, but their suitability from legal, policy, financial, internal capacity, and other management perspectives has not been evaluated for any protected area agency or organization. In this study, a panel of protected area experts applied a Policy Delphi methodology to identify and evaluate climate change adaptation options across the primary management areas of a protected area agency in Canada. The panel identified and evaluated one hundred and sixty five (165) adaptation options for their perceived desirability and feasibility. While the results revealed a high level of agreement with respect to the desirability of adaptation options and a moderate level of capacity pertaining to policy formulation and management direction, a perception of low capacity for implementation in most other program areas was identified. A separate panel of senior park agency decision-makers used a multiple criterion decision-facilitation matrix to further evaluate the institutional feasibility of the 56 most desirable adaptation options identified by the initial expert panel and to prioritize them for consideration in a climate change action plan. Critically, only two of the 56 adaptation options evaluated by senior decision-makers were deemed definitely implementable, due largely to fiscal and internal capacity limitations. These challenges are common to protected area agencies in developed countries and pervade those in developing countries, revealing that limited adaptive capacity represents a substantive barrier to biodiversity conservation and other protected area management objectives in an era of rapid climate change.     

Strong response of an invasive plant species (Centaurea solstitialis L.) to global environmental changes

Global environmental changes are altering interactions among plant species, sometimes favoring invasive species. Here, we examine how a suite of five environmental factors, singly and in combination, can affect the success of a highly invasive plant. We introduced Centaurea solstitialis L. (yellow starthistle), which is considered by many to be California's most troublesome wildland weed, to grassland plots in the San Francisco Bay Area. These plots experienced ambient or elevated levels of warming, atmospheric CO2, precipitation, and nitrate deposition, and an accidental fire in the previous year created an additional treatment. Centaurea grew more than six times larger in response to elevated CO2, and, outside of the burned area, grew more than three times larger in response to nitrate deposition. In contrast, resident plants in the community responded less strongly (or did not respond) to these treatments. Interactive effects among treatments were rarely significant. Results from a parallel mesocosm experiment, while less dramatic, supported the pattern of results observed in the field. Taken together, our results suggest that ongoing environmental changes may dramatically increase Centaurea's prevalence in western North America.     

Range-wide effects of breeding- and nonbreeding-season climate on the abundance of a Neotropical migrant songbird

Geographic variation in the population dynamics of a species can result from regional variability in climate and how it affects reproduction and survival. Identifying such effects for migratory birds requires the integration of population models with knowledge of migratory connectivity between breeding and nonbreeding areas. We used Bayesian hierarchical models with 26 years of Breeding Bird Survey data (1982-2007) to investigate the impacts of breeding- and nonbreeding-season climate on abundance of American Redstarts (Setophaga ruticilla) across the species range. We focused on 15 populations defined by Bird Conservation Regions, and we included variation across routes and observers as well as temporal trends and climate effects. American Redstart populations that breed in eastern North America showed increased abundance following winters with higher plant productivity in the Caribbean where they are expected to overwinter. In contrast, western breeding populations showed little response to conditions in their expected wintering areas in west Mexico, perhaps reflecting lower migratory connectivity or differential effects of winter rainfall on individuals across the species range. Unlike the case with winter climate, we found few effects of temperature prior to arrival in spring (March-April) or during the nesting period (May-June) on abundance the following year. Eight populations showed significant changes in abundance, with the steepest declines in the Atlantic Northern Forest (-3.4%/yr) and the greatest increases in the Prairie Hardwood Transition (4%/yr). This study emphasizes how the effects of climate on populations of migratory birds are context dependent and can vary depending on geographic location and the period of the annual cycle. Such knowledge is essential for predicting regional variation in how populations of a species might vary in their response to climate change.     

What does it mean to transform knowledge into action in falls prevention research? Perspectives from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research

Introduction

The concept of knowledge translation as defined by the Canadian Institutes for Health Research and the Knowledge to Action Cycle, described by Graham et al (Graham et al., 2006), are used to make a case for the importance of using a conceptual model to describe moving knowledge into action in the area of falls prevention.

Method

There is a large body of research in the area of falls prevention. It would seem that in many areas it is clear what is needed to prevent falls and further syntheses can determine where the evidence is sufficiently robust to warrant its implementation as well as where the gaps are that require further basic research.

Conclusion

The phases of the action cycle highlight seven areas that should be paid attention to in order to maximize chances of successful implementation.     

When evidence is not enough: the challenge of implementing fall prevention strategies

Problem

As the evidence-based movement has advanced in public health, changes in public health practices have lagged far behind creating a science to service gap. For example, science has produced effective falls prevention interventions for older adults. It now is clearer WHAT needs to be done to reduce injury and death related to falls. However, issues have arisen regarding HOW to assure the full and effective uses of evidence-based programs in practice.

Summary

Lessons learned from the science and practice of implementation provide guidance for how to change practices by developing new competencies, how to change organizations to support evidence-based practices, and how to change public health systems to align system functions with desired practices. The combination of practice, organization, and system change likely will produce the public health benefits that are the promise of evidence-based falls prevention interventions.

Impact on public health

For the past several decades, the emphasis has been solely on evidence-based interventions. Public health will benefit from giving equal emphasis to evidence-based implementation.

Impact on Industry

We now have over two decades of research on the effectiveness of fall prevention interventions. The quality of this research is judged by a number of credible international organizations, including the Cochrane Collaboration (http://www.cochrane.org/), the American and British Geriatrics Societies, and the Campbell Collaboration (http://www.campbellcollaboration.org/). These international bodies were formed to ponder and answer questions related to the quality and relevance of research. These developments are a good first step. However, while knowing WHAT to do (an evidence-based intervention) is critical, we also need to know HOW to effectively implement the evidence. Implementation, organization change, and system change methods produce the conditions that allow and support the full and effective use of evidence-based interventions. It is time to focus on utilization of implementation knowledge in public health. Without this focus the vast amount on new evidence being generated on the prevention of falls and related injuries among older adults will have little impact on their health and safety.