Co-evolution of wetland landscapes,flooding, and human settlement in the Mississippi River Delta Plain

River deltas all over the world are sinking beneath sea-level rise, causing significant threats to natural and social systems. This is due to the combined effects of anthropogenic changes to sediment supply and river flow, subsidence, and sea-level rise, posing an immediate threat to the 500–1,000 million residents, many in megacities that live on deltaic coasts. The Mississippi River Deltaic Plain (MRDP) provides examples for many of the functions and feedbacks, regarding how human river management has impacted source-sink processes in coastal deltaic basins, resulting in human settlements more at risk to coastal storms. The survival of human settlement on the MRDP is arguably coupled to a shifting mass balance between a deltaic landscape occupied by either land built by the Mississippi River or water occupied by the Gulf of Mexico. We developed an approach to compare 50 % L:W isopleths (L:W is ratio of land to water) across the Atchafalaya and Terrebonne Basins to test landscape behavior over the last six decades to measure delta instability in coastal deltaic basins as a function of reduced sediment supply from river flooding. The Atchafalaya Basin, with continued sediment delivery, compared to Terrebonne Basin, with reduced river inputs, allow us to test assumptions of how coastal deltaic basins respond to river management over the last 75 years by analyzing landward migration rate of 50 % L:W isopleths between 1932 and 2010. The average landward migration for Terrebonne Basin was nearly 17,000 m (17 km) compared to only 22 m in Atchafalaya Basin over the last 78 years (p < 0.001), resulting in migration rates of 218 m/year (0.22 km/year) and <0.5 m/year, respectively. In addition, freshwater vegetation expanded in Atchafalaya Basin since 1949 compared to migration of intermediate and brackish marshes landward in the Terrebonne Basin. Changes in salt marsh vegetation patterns were very distinct in these two basins with gain of 25 % in the Terrebonne Basin compared to 90 % decrease in the Atchafalaya Basin since 1949. These shifts in vegetation types as L:W ratio decreases with reduced sediment input and increase in salinity also coincide with an increase in wind fetch in Terrebonne Bay. In the upper Terrebonne Bay, where the largest landward migration of the 50 % L:W ratio isopleth occurred, we estimate that the wave power has increased by 50–100 % from 1932 to 2010, as the bathymetric and topographic conditions changed, and increase in maximum storm-surge height also increased owing to the landward migration of the L:W ratio isopleth. We argue that this balance of land relative to water in this delta provides a much clearer understanding of increased flood risk from tropical cyclones rather than just estimates of areal land loss. We describe how coastal deltaic basins of the MRDP can be used as experimental landscapes to provide insights into how varying degrees of sediment delivery to coastal deltaic floodplains change flooding risks of a sinking delta using landward migrations of 50 % L:W isopleths. The nonlinear response of migrating L:W isopleths as wind fetch increases is a critical feedback effect that should influence human river-management decisions in deltaic coast. Changes in land area alone do not capture how corresponding landscape degradation and increased water area can lead to exponential increase in flood risk to human populations in low-lying coastal regions. Reduced land formation in coastal deltaic basins (measured by changes in the land:water ratio) can contribute significantly to increasing flood risks by removing the negative feedback of wetlands on wave and storm-surge that occur during extreme weather events. Increased flood risks will promote population migration as human risks associated with living in a deltaic landscape increase, as land is submerged and coastal inundation threats rise. These system linkages in dynamic deltaic coasts define a balance of river management and human settlement dependent on a certain level of land area within coastal deltaic basins (L).     

Evaluation of the Design Features of Interactive Sea-Level Rise Viewers for Risk Communication

Interactive sea-level rise viewers (ISLRVs) are digital tools used to communicate about impacts of sea-level rise (SLR) and support decision-making. This study characterizes how ISLRVs communicate about SLR-related risks and provide decision-making support. It identifies key themes about fostering accurate mental models of SLR processes, informing about inundation likelihood, communicating about related social and ecological risks, and providing features users can apply to specific tasks. We present a framework for understanding this type of communication tool that designers can use to develop robust ISLRVs that can support audiences’ understanding and decision-making needs, and contribute to enhancement of coastal resiliency.     

Response of Nitrogen Loading to the Chesapeake Bay to Source Reduction and Land Use Change Scenarios: A SPARROW‐Informed Analysis

In response to concerns regarding the health of streams and receiving waters, the United States Environmental Protection Agency established a total maximum daily load for nitrogen in the Chesapeake Bay watershed for which practices must be in place by 2025 resulting in an expected 25% reduction in load from 2009 levels. The response of total nitrogen (TN) loads delivered to the Bay to nine source reduction and land use change scenarios was estimated using a Spatially Referenced Regression on Watershed Attributes model. The largest predicted reduction in TN load delivered to the Bay was associated with a scenario in which the mass of TN as fertilizer applied to agricultural lands was decreased. A 25% decrease in the mass of TN applied as fertilizer resulted in a predicted reduction in TN loading to the Bay of 11.3%, which was 2.5–5 times greater than the reductions predicted by other scenarios. Eliminating fertilizer application to all agricultural land in the watershed resulted in a predicted reduction in TN load to the Bay of 45%. It was estimated that an approximate 25% reduction in TN loading to the Bay could be achieved by eliminating fertilizer applied to the 7% of subwatersheds contributing the greatest fertilizer‐sourced TN loads to the Bay. These results indicate that management strategies aimed at decreasing loading from a small number of subwatersheds may be effective for reducing TN loads to the Bay, and similar analyses are possible in other watersheds.     

Use of surrogate species to cost-effectively prioritize conservation actions

Conservation efforts often focus on umbrella species whose distributions overlap with many other flora and fauna. However, because biodiversity is affected by different threats that are spatially variable, focusing only on the geographic range overlap of species may not be sufficient in allocating the necessary actions needed to efficiently abate threats. We developed a problem-based method for prioritizing conservation actions for umbrella species that maximizes the total number of flora and fauna benefiting from management while considering threats, actions, and costs. We tested our new method by assessing the performance of the Australian federal government's umbrella prioritization list, which identifies 73 umbrella species as priorities for conservation attention. Our results show that the federal government priority list benefits only 6% of all Australia's threatened terrestrial species. This could be increased to benefit nearly half (or 46%) of all threatened terrestrial species for the same budget of AU$550 million/year if more suitable umbrella species were chosen. This results in a 7-fold increase in management efficiency. We believe nations around the world can markedly improve the selection of prioritized umbrella species for conservation action with this transparent, quantitative, and objective prioritization approach.     

Studies on the drug resistance profile of Enterococcus faecium distributed from poultry retailers to hospitals

The multidrug resistant Enterococcus faecium (MEF) strains originating from farm animals are proliferating at a substantial pace to impact downstream food chains and could reach hospitals. This study was conducted to elucidate the drug susceptibility profile of MEF strains collected from poultry products in Ann Arbor, MI area and clinical settings from Michigan State Lab and Moffitt Cancer Center (MCC) in Florida. Presumptive positive Enterococcus isolates at species level were identified by Matrix Assisted Laser Desorption/Ionization Time-of-Flight (MALDI-TOF) analysis. The antibiotic susceptibility profile for both poultry and clinical strains was determined by the Thermo Scientific's Sensititre conform to the National Committee for Clinical Laboratory Standards (NCCLS) and validated via quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR) methods. Out of 50 poultry samples (Turkey: n = 30; Chicken: n = 20), 36 samples were positive for Enterococcus species from which 20.83% were identified as E. faecium. All the E. faecium isolates were multidrug resistant and displayed resistance to the last alternative drug, quinupristin/dalfopristin (QD) used to treat vancomycin resistant E. faecium (VRE) in hospitals. Results indicate the presence of MEF strains in food animals and clinical settings that are also resistant to QD.     

Exploring the origins of ‘social license to operate’ in the mining sector: Perspectives from governance and sustainability theories

In the mining sector, local communities have emerged as particularly important governance actors. Conventional approaches to mineral development no longer suffice for these communities, which have demanded a greater share of benefits and increased involvement in decision making. These trends have been spurred by the growth of the sustainable development paradigm and governance shifts that have increasingly transferred governing authority towards non-state actors. Accordingly, there is now widespread recognition that mineral developers need to gain a ‘social license to operate’ (SLO) from local communities in order to avoid potentially costly conflict and exposure to social risks. A social license can be considered to exist when a mining project is seen as having the ongoing approval and broad acceptance of society to conduct its activities. Due to the concept's relatively recent emergence, however, only a limited body of scholarship has developed around SLO. Drawing on examples from northern Canada, this paper uses governance and sustainability theories to conceptualize the origins of SLO in the mining sector and describe some of the associated implications. Further research is needed to determine governance arrangements which help facilitate establishment of SLO in different mineral development contexts.     

Ecological footprints and shadows in an urban estuary, Narragansett Bay, RI (USA)

Because the rise of cities in North America was much later than in many other parts of the world, their connections to the hinterland were influenced early in their development by railroads and steam-powered water transport. These fossil fuel-based links made it possible to widely separate the ??upstream?? autotrophic supporting systems from the heterotrophic cities. Here, we take a different look at the connection between a city (Providence, RI, USA) and its supporting natural systems by focusing on the export of industrial and metabolic wastes from the city to the ??downstream?? coastal ecosystem in Narragansett Bay. In this way, we can track the history of a city by examining the concentrations of nutrients, metals, and hydrocarbons in the water and sediments of the estuary. In the greater Providence metropolitan area at the head of Narragansett Bay, there was rapid population and industrial expansion during the 1800s without the proper infrastructure to deal with water supply for public safety and health. On the other hand, the absence of a public water supply kept industrial and metabolic wastes largely on land. However, from the fall of 1871, on with the construction of a public water supply and sewer system, human wastes began flowing into the estuary. By reconstructing the historical record of metals and other pollutants, we illustrate clear temporal and spatial gradients of urban impact on the bay. Unfortunately, while numerous studies during the 1970s and 1980s focused on documenting metal and hydrocarbon pollution in the bay, there has been little effort to quantify the impact of mitigation efforts that have greatly reduced the input of metals and hydrocarbons to the system. Nutrient reductions are more recent and ongoing.     

Disaster risk reduction capacity assessment for precarious settlements in Guatemala City

This study presents findings of an institutional capacity analysis of urban disaster risk reduction for informal settlements in the Guatemala Metropolitan Region. It uses a resource access perspective of vulnerability, actor-network theory, and qualitative data collection. The analysis reveals that there is interest in disaster risk reduction for the informal settlements; however, there is little in the way of direct financial or oversight relationships between informal settlement residents and all other actors. Respondents observed that informal settlements would probably remain inhabited; thus, there is a need for disaster risk reduction within these settlements. Disaster risk reduction capacity for informal settlements exists and can be further leveraged, as long as steps are taken to ensure appropriate access to and control of resources and oversight. Further, the nascent institutional arrangements should be strengthened through increased communication and coordination between actors, a decentralization of oversight and financial relationships, and mediation of identified resource conflicts.