Probabilistic impacts of climate change on flood frequency using response surfaces II: Scotland

This paper uses a sensitivity framework approach to look at the probabilistic impacts of climate change on 20-year return period flood peaks, by applying a set of typical response surfaces alongside the probabilistic UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) for 10 river-basin regions over Scotland. The first paper of the pair used the same approach for 10 river-basin regions over England and Wales. This paper develops the methodology for Scotland, by first enabling better estimation of the response type of Scottish catchments. Then, as for England and Wales, the potential range of impacts is shown for different types of catchment in each river-basin region in Scotland, and regional average impact ranges are estimated. Results show clear differences in impacts between catchments of different types and between regions. The Argyll and West Highland regions show the highest impacts, while the North-East Scotland region shows the lowest impacts. The overall ranges are generally smaller for Scotland than England and Wales.     

Projecting current and potential future distribution of the Fire-bellied toad Bombina bombina under climate change in north-eastern Germany

Environmental change is likely to have a strong impact on biodiversity, and many species may shift their distribution in response. In this study, we aimed at projecting the availability of suitable habitat for an endangered amphibian species, the Fire-bellied toad Bombina bombina, in Brandenburg (north-eastern Germany). We modelled a potential habitat distribution map based on (1) a database with 10,581 presence records for Bombina from the years 1990 to 2009, (2) current estimates for ecogeographical variables (EGVs) and (3) the future projection of these EGVs according to the statistical regional model, respectively, the soil and water integrated model, applying the maximum entropy approach (Maxent). By comparing current and potential future distributions, we evaluated the projected change in distribution of suitable habitats and identified the environmental variables most associated with habitat suitability that turned out to be climatic variables related to the hydrological cycle. Under the applied scenario, our results indicate increasing habitat suitability in many areas and an extended range of suitable habitats. However, even if the environmental conditions in Brandenburg may change as predicted, it is questionable whether the Fire-bellied toad will truly benefit, as dispersal abilities of amphibian species are limited and strongly influenced by anthropogenic disturbances, that is, intensive agriculture, habitat destruction and fragmentation. Furthermore, agronomic pressure is likely to increase on productive areas with fertile soils and high water retention capacities, indeed those areas suitable for B. bombina. All these changes may affect temporary pond hydrology as well as the reproductive success and breeding phenology of toads.     

The structure of bumblebee communities (Hymenoptera,Apidae, Bombus spp.) in some ecosystems of Kunashir Island and Southern Sakhalin (Russian Far East)

The structure of bumblebee communities has been studied in some ecosystems of Kunashir Island and Southern Sakhalin. The island taxocenes include five to eight bumblebee species. Bombus hypnorum is dominant in the majority of habitats. In geothermal areas near hot springs on Kunashir, the families of this species develop more rapidly than in areas without geothermal heating.     

The holocene dynamics of vegetation and environmental conditions on the eastern slope of the Northern Urals

Consideration is given to changes in the vegetation and climatic conditions on the eastern slope of the Northern Urals in the second half of the Holocene as reconstructed on the basis of integrated palynological, botanical, paleocarpological, and radiocarbon analysis of material from a peat bog section in the floodplain of the Loz’va River. The results show that the northern taiga zone of the study region in the period between approximately 5000 and 700 years BP was occupied by forests of southern taiga facies, as the climate was significantly warmer than it is today.     

Variation in the seed progeny of smooth brome grass,Bromus inermis Leyss., under conditions of chronic irradiation in the zone of the Eastern Ural Radioactive Trace

Long-term studies have been performed on the seed progeny of B. inermis from test plots established along the radioactive contamination gradient in the zone of the Eastern Ural Radioactive Trace (EURT), where dose loads on maternal plants and embryos of seeds from chronically irradiated cenopopulations (with natural background radiation taken into account) exceed control values by factors of 2 to 107. Interannual and individual variation in the viability, mutability, and radiosensitivity of the seed progeny has been revealed. Against the background of high interpopulation variation in test parameters in the EURT zone, weather conditions appear to have no significant effect on seed quality, while such effects are appreciable in background cenopopulations. It has been shown that a positive correlation exist between the initial viability of the seed progeny and their radioresistance. Chronic irradiation in a wide dose range induces an increased frequency of different mutations and morphological modifications. The contents of low-molecular antioxidants in seedlings from impact cenopopulations proved to be higher than in the background sample. The results obtained characterize the potential of protective and restorative mechanisms acquired in the course of evolution that allow plants to survive in the changing environment under exposure to technogenic stress.     

The status of mammal populations in the middle Urals and factors determining their distribution and density

Changes in the distribution and abundance of some game mammals have been analyzed over the past 100–150 years. Correlations between changes in the population density of species in slightly and strongly transformed habitats have been revealed, which show that the influence of anthropogenic factors on the population density of species has a highly complex pattern. Transformation of habitats leads to disturbances in the species composition of communities, changes in the population density of species, and disruption of functional relationships between them.     

Adaptive properties of the dandelion (Taraxacum officinale Wigg. s.l.) under conditions of air pollution by motor vehicle exhausts

Microcalorimetric, gasometric, and nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) methods have been used to evaluate heat production, gas exchange, and root membrane permeability in dandelion of different morphological forms from populations exposed to different levels of air pollution. The results show that these forms differ in the level of energy metabolism and that the form with a higher metabolic level (T. off. f. dahlstedtii) is more tolerant of air pollution with motor vehicle exhausts.     

Is the degrowth debate relevant to China?

In industrialized countries, the idea of degrowth has emerged as a response to environmental, social, and economic crises. Realizing environmental limits to and failures of more than half a century of continual economic growth in terms of social progress and environmental sustainability, the degrowth paradigm calls for a downscaling of consumption and production for social equity and ecological sustainability. The call for economic degrowth is generally considered to be delimited to rich countries, where reduced consumption can save “ecological space” enabling people in poor countries to enjoy the benefits of economic growth. China, as one of the economically most expanding countries in the world, has dramatically improved its living standards, particularly along the Eastern coast, over the latest 30 years. However, China is absent from the international debates on growth. This article discusses the implications of the Western degrowth debates for China. Given the distinctive features of China’s development, the paper aims to enrich the degrowth debates, which have hitherto been dominated by Western perspectives. Based upon reflections on social, environmental, and moral dimensions of economic growth, the paper argues that limited natural resources may not continuously support universal affluence at the current level of the rich countries, a level that China is likely to reach within a few decades. Priority for growth in China should therefore be given to the poor regions of the country, and future growth should be beneficial to social and environmental development.     

Comparative analysis of small mammal communities in Chisinau and Yaroslavl, two European cities located in different biomes

Comparative analysis of the structure of small mammal communities has been performed in two European cities located in different biomes: Chisinau (2008?C2009) and Yaroslavl (1994?C2002). The parameters studied included abundance, species composition, similarity and difference of faunas, species diversity, and proportions of groups differing in predisposition to synanthropy. It has been found that the structure of small mammal communities in these cities depends on specific physiographic conditions of the surrounding areas and on the distinctive features of the cities themselves (their structure, age, etc.). The similarity between the faunas is accounted for by the common ecological patterns of fauna formation in the biota of urban cenoses.