Smoothing of land use maps for trend and change detection in urbanization

Urban sprawl and its evolution over relatively short periods of time demands that we develop statistical tools to make best use of the routinely produced land use data from satellites. An efficient smoothing framework to estimate spatial patterns in binary raster maps derived from land use datasets is developed and presented in this paper. The framework is motivated by the need to model urbanization, specifically urban sprawl, and also its temporal evolution. We frame the problem as estimation of a probability of urbanization surface and use Bayesian P-splines as the tool of choice. Once such a probability map is produced, with associated uncertainty, we develop exploratory tools to identify regions of significant change across space and time. The proposal is used to study urbanisation and its development around the city of Bologna, Emilia Romagna, Italy, using land use data from the Cartography Archive of Emilia Romagna Region for the period 1976–2008.     

Efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling for hierarchical hidden Markov models

Traditional Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling of hidden Markov models (HMMs) involves latent states underlying an imperfect observation process, and generates posterior samples for top-level parameters concurrently with nuisance latent variables. When potentially many HMMs are embedded within a hierarchical model, this can result in prohibitively long MCMC runtimes. We study combinations of existing methods, which are shown to vastly improve computational efficiency for these hierarchical models while maintaining the modeling flexibility provided by embedded HMMs. The methods include discrete filtering of the HMM likelihood to remove latent states, reduced data representations, and a novel procedure for dynamic block sampling of posterior dimensions. The first two methods have been used in isolation in existing application-specific software, but are not generally available for incorporation in arbitrary model structures. Using the NIMBLE package for R, we develop and test combined computational approaches using three examples from ecological capture–recapture, although our methods are generally applicable to any embedded discrete HMMs. These combinations provide several orders of magnitude improvement in MCMC sampling efficiency, defined as the rate of generating effectively independent posterior samples. In addition to being computationally significant for this class of hierarchical models, this result underscores the potential for vast improvements to MCMC sampling efficiency which can result from combinations of known algorithms.     

Use of non-homogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) in presence of change-points to analyze drought periods: a case study in Brazil

Rain precipitation in the last years has been very atypical in different regions of the world, possibly, due to climate changes. We analyze Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) measures (1, 3, 6 and 12-month timescales) for a large city in Brazil: Campinas located in the southeast region of Brazil, São Paulo State, ranging from January 01, 1947 to May 01, 2011. A Bayesian analysis of non-homogeneous Poisson processes in presence or not of change-points is developed using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods in the data analysis. We consider a special class of models: the power law process. We also discuss some discrimination methods for the choice of the better model to be used for the rain precipitation data.     

Formal modelling of predator preferences using molecular gut-content analysis

The literature on modelling a predator’s prey selection describes many intuitive indices, few of which have both reasonable statistical justification and tractable asymptotic properties. Here, we provide a simple model that meets both of these criteria, while extending previous work to include an array of data from multiple species and time points. Further, we apply the expectation–maximisation algorithm to compute estimates if exact counts of the number of prey species eaten in a particular time period are not observed. We conduct a simulation study to demonstrate the accuracy of our method, and illustrate the utility of the approach for field analysis of predation using a real data set, collected on wolf spiders using molecular gut-content analysis.     

导致上西里西亚工业区儿童血铅水平升高环境和社会经济因素研究

本文集中在横向分析近期波兰儿童铅暴露和铅暴露增加背后的社会经济因素。在上西里西亚工业区,铅是分布最广泛的有毒重金属之一。儿童血铅水平升高关系儿童幸福,不断引起严重关切。本研究涉及在1999 - 2013年间,上西里西亚地区3岁到18岁的4 882名儿童。记录了每一个孩子血液中铅的浓度。孩子的父母被要求回答关于儿童接触铅的环境和家庭社会经济条件的问卷调查。铅暴露增加的因素包括：父母受教育程度较低,父母失业、父母的职业铅暴,家庭的贫穷社会经济地位,在家吸烟,生活在建筑物底层,食用本地种植的蔬菜和水果,在污染环境中长期进行户外活动和男性性别。铅的环境暴露仍然是导致上西里西亚地区儿童慢性铅中毒的主要因素。与儿童血铅浓度关系最大的社会经济因素是儿童父母的低教育水平。
精选自Wojciech Pelc, Natalia Pawlas, Micha? Dobrakowski, S?awomir Kasperczyk. Environmental and socioeconomic factors contributing to elevated blood lead levels in children from industrial area of Upper Silesia. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry: Volume 35, Issue 10, pages 2597–2603, October 2016. DOI: 10.1002/etc.3429
详情请见http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/etc.3429/full
     

Contrasting population structures in two sympatric fishes in the Baltic Sea basin

Detailed multispecies studies on the patterns of genetic variability and differentiation in marine environments are still rare. Using mitochondrial and nuclear genetic markers, we compared genetic variability and population structuring of threespine (Gasterosteus aculeatus) and ninespine (Pungitius pungitius) sticklebacks from the same eleven marine and six freshwater locations within the Baltic Sea basin. Analyses of both marker types revealed a significantly lower degree of genetic structuring in both marine and freshwater populations of threespine than those ninespine sticklebacks. Isolation-by-distance (IBD) was detected across the marine populations in both species, suggesting spatially limited gene flow. However, the levels of genetic diversity and differentiation across the localities were uncorrelated between the two species in both marine and freshwater environments. Accordingly, estimates of effective population sizes were larger and migration rates were higher for three- than for ninespine sticklebacks. Hence, ninespine stickleback populations from the Baltic Sea basin appear to be subject to stronger genetic drift than sympatric threespine sticklebacks, and the proximate reason for this difference is likely to be found from autecological differences between the two species. In accordance with the earlier studies, genetic variability was higher and the degree of genetic differentiation was lower in marine than in freshwater populations in both species.     

Effects of salinity stress on neurotransmission, energy metabolism, and anti-oxidant biomarkers of Carcinus maenas from two estuaries of the NW Iberian Peninsula

This study investigated the effects of salinity on biomarkers of oxidative stress, energy metabolism, and neurotransmission of Carcinus maenas from an estuary low impacted by pollution and from an estuary under chemical stress in the NW Iberian Peninsula. Crabs were collected in the field and, following an acclimation period, they were exposed for 7 days to five salinity levels ranging from 4 to 45 psu. At the end of the exposure period, stress biomarkers were determined in samples of muscle and digestive gland. The biomarkers assessed in the muscle were the activities of the enzymes cholinesterases (ChE), of which acetylcholinesterase is involved in neurotransmission, and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) and isocitrate dehydrogenase (IDH) that are involved in energy metabolism. The biomarkers assessed in the digestive gland were (1) the activities of the enzymes glutathione S-transferases (GST), glutathione reductase (GR), and glutathione peroxidase (GPx), involved in phase II biotransformation and the anti-oxidant defence system; (2) the levels of total glutathiones (TG), also belonging to the anti-oxidant system; and (3) the levels of lipid peroxidation as a measure of oxidative damage. The results showed a significant influence of salinity on neurotransmission, energy metabolism, anti-oxidant status, and oxidative damage of C. maenas. For some biomarkers, this influence was dependent on whether the crabs were collected at the low-polluted estuary or at the contaminated estuary. In particular, crabs collected at the low-polluted estuary showed altered neurotransmission and anti-oxidant defences (GR). Crabs collected at the impacted estuary showed alterations in neurotransmission, energy metabolism (IDH and LDH), biotransformation, and anti-oxidant defences (GST, GR, GPx, and TG), as well as in oxidative damage, indicating that salinity change superimposes higher stress on these organisms. For ChE, IDH, and TG, altered responses were induced by both hypo- and hypersalinity.     

Mate quality,not aggressive spillover,explains sexual cannibalism in a size-dimorphic spider

Sexual cannibalism particularly before mating is costly for the male victim but also for the female aggressor if she risks remaining unmated. The aggressive spillover hypothesis explains the persistence of this behavior as a maladaptive side effect of positive selection on aggressiveness in a foraging context. The hypothesis predicts that the occurrence of sexual cannibalism is explained by female aggressiveness but is not related to male phenotype or behavioral type. An alternative hypothesis invokes sexual selection and makes the opposite prediction namely that sexual cannibalism is an expression of female choice and should hence mainly target males of low quality. We tested the above hypotheses on a sexually dimorphic nephilid spider Nephilengys livida, known for male monopolization of females via genital damage, female genital plugging, and mate guarding, by staging mating trials during which we recorded mating behaviors and occurrences of pre- and postcopulatory cannibalism. We did not restrict assessment of aggressiveness to the mating and foraging context but also included aggression against same sex conspecifics. To assess female personalities, i.e., consistent individual differences in behavior including aggressiveness, we repeatedly tested them for intra-sex aggression, voracity towards prey, locomotory activity, and boldness. Females exhibited consistent differences in intra-sex aggressiveness, latency to attack prey, and boldness. Aggressive females had shorter latencies to attack prey and were more active than non-aggressive ones. In contrast to the predictions of the aggressive spillover hypothesis, females that were aggressive towards prey and towards other females were not more likely to attack a male than non-aggressive females. In support of the mate choice hypothesis, less aggressive males were more likely attacked and cannibalized than more aggressive ones. This hints at sexual selection for aggressiveness in males and raises the question of mechanisms that maintain variation in male aggressiveness.     

Invading together: the benefits of coalition dispersal in a cooperative bird

Dispersal attempts can be costly and may often end in failure. Individuals should therefore only disperse when the benefits of dispersal outweigh the costs. While previous research has focussed on aspects of the individual that may affect dispersal success, social factors may also influence dispersal outcomes. One way of achieving successful dispersal could be through cooperative, or coalition dispersal. I investigated this possibility in the cooperatively breeding Arabian babbler Turdoides squamiceps. I found that coalition dispersal appears to be an effective strategy to ensure the success of dispersal attempts, with coalitions more successful than lone individuals at taking over the breeding position in a new group. Lone dispersal was more costly than coalition dispersal, with lone individuals suffering a greater loss of body mass during dispersal attempts. These results suggest a substantial short-term benefit for this type of cooperative behaviour. There was no evidence for dispersal polymorphism in the population, with no detectable phenotypic difference between dispersers and non-dispersers or those that dispersed as part of a coalition compared with those that dispersed alone.     

The causes and consequences of partial prey consumption by wolves preying on moose

For a wide range of taxa, partial prey consumption (PPC) is a frequent occurrence. PPC may arise from physiological constraints to gut capacity or digestive rate. Alternatively, PPC may represent an optimal foraging strategy. Assessments that clearly distinguish between these causes are rare and have been conducted only for invertebrate species that are ambush predators with extra-intestinal digestion (e.g., wolf spiders). We present the first strong test for the cause of PPC in a cursorial vertebrate predator with intestinal digestion: wolves (Canis lupus) feeding on moose (Alces alces). Previous theoretical assessments indicate that if PPC represents an optimal foraging strategy and is not caused by physiological limitations, then mean carcass utilization is negatively correlated with mean kill rate and the utilization of individual carcasses is uncorrelated with time between kills. Wolves exhibit exactly this pattern. We explore how the typical portrayal of PPC by wolves has been not only misleading but also detrimental to conservation by promoting negative attitudes toward wolves.